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Contrarian signal, for the sake of having a conversation: - I think we will experience a massive deflationary bust. The inflation narrative is over, it’s all a

by fosk 4y ago

Contrarian signal, for the sake of having a conversation: - I think we will experience a massive deflationary bust. The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. - By Summer 2023 we will experience YoY deflation and the Fed will cut then, or even sooner in anticipation to that. - We may see hikes pausing as soon as February, and cuts starting in the summer as a result of rapid disinflation (which may turn into deflation). Deflation is a lot worse than inflation. - We find out that the bulk of inflation was indeed caused by supply chain bottlenecks. As China fully re-opens, those will be resolved. - Russia’s war with Ukraine will end (Putin is now agreeing to potentially think about negotiations). Oil prices will ease

laidoffamazon 4y ago
Oil prices already eased, we're refilling the SPR at a significant profit at the ~73$ floor.
voisin 4y ago
> The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. You can have stagflation: a recession with inflation. This is the economic boogeyman that literally every central banker has worried about for his or her entire career. Inflation is certainly not “over” - still running extremely hot relative to the last decade. Better than before the rate hikes, but by no means good or over.
- cmmeur01 4y ago
  Any normal time period would be considered “extremely hot” compared to the last decade+ of artificially low rates.
  - voisin 4y ago
    Can you expand on why you think inflation was “artificially low”?
    - danaris 4y ago
      I read it as the interest rates being artificially low...
      - voisin 4y ago
        Ok but then if interest rates were artificially low, then you would expect inflation to be artificially high but it wasn’t (at least by official measures). So the parent commenter is saying anything would be extremely hot given the last decade plus of artificially low rates, which is the exactly opposite result from what one would expect. (which begs the question: what does it mean to be artificially low? Compared to what?)
KptMarchewa 4y ago
>Putin is now agreeing to potentially think about negotiations This is as red herring as it can be. No remotely serious analysis of this war can take anything Kremlin says at face value.
- Tanjreeve 4y ago
  I've not seen anything convincing that Ukraine are going to stop till they have crimea back even if Putin did want to "negotiate" keeping areas they invaded. Ukraine already tried appeasing Russia in 2014 after the last invasion and now they have the current situation so I doubt any decision with actual skin in the game (aka Ukraine) are going to be trying that again anytime soon.
candiddevmike 4y ago
China is being ravaged by COVID right now, your bottlenecks are going to get a lot worse before they get better.
p_l 4y ago
> As China fully re-opens, those will be resolved. "Reopening", and caused by it pandemic speedrun is already bringing back more supply chain disruptions > - Russia’s war with Ukraine will end (Putin is now agreeing to potentially think about negotiations). Oil prices will ease Putin is trying to "win" the war by insisting on talks where they keep the territory. Anyone looking closely knows that's not going to be accepted even as a premise to start talks.
cjbgkagh 4y ago
Putin was always willing to negotiate and there have been attempts at negotiation before and during the conflict, what matters are the pre-conditions to negotiations. If the pre-conditions are too strong then in effect it blocks negotiations and it means the overtures to negotiate are simply done for political reasons. We’re being told that only now Putin is ready to negotiate so I’m assuming that means the pre-conditions have weakened but I’m having a hard time finding out what that change is. Maybe they’ve given up their demand for a de-militarized Ukraine? The ban from entry to NATO? We’re also being told that this willingness to negotiate is a sign of weakness and eminent failure for the Russians so Ukraine shouldn’t negotiate and should instead press their advantage. In effect we should not negotiate with people who are not-willing to negotiate nor with people who are… which only makes sense if we never intend to negotiate - a position that’s much easier to hold when we’re not paying the price of the failure to negotiate.
- danaris 4y ago
  Putin's version of "negotiations" has always been "give me what I want, and I might not kill thousands of you." If Ukraine is "pressing its advantage", it's to take back the territory that Russia has illegally attempted to annex. Please stop spreading Russian propaganda.
  - birdymcbird 4y ago
    Which part of ops statement is Russian propaganda? At the onset of the current war, Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey immediately to begin diplomatic talks. You do realize we intervened and told Ukraine to walk away? This whole narrative that Putin is irrational, that Russia is just plain evil, and any contrary perspective is “Russian propaganda” reminds me of 2003 when questioning the Iraq war effort would get you labeled as a terrorists sympathizer. This war is far more nuanced than the US government-backed narrative being pushed in the mainstream media. That itself is propaganda. And what’s truly embarrassing is people like yourself actively try to shut down any discussion or contrarian views. If it doesn’t conform to your view of the world, it’s propaganda.
    - 4y ago
ChuckNorris89 4y ago
>Russia’s war with Ukraine will end (Putin is now agreeing to potentially think about negotiations) "Potentially think about negotiations" is a long long way from the war ending. Also Putin's terms are absurd. He wants to keep half of Ukraine while evading persecution for the crimes against humanity the Russian army caused against civilian population. That's not gonna fly in Kiev, who wants all their territories back including Crimea, and the guilty parties held accountable at the Hague for their crimes, plus war reparations being paid, which is not gonna fly in Moscow.
- coffeebeqn 4y ago
  Putin would want “peace” only to have more time to build up his army and continue the invasion in 2-5 years. It’s insane how naïve some people are still about russias intentions after everything they’ve done
  - api 4y ago
    A decent chunk of the right isn’t naive. They want Putin to win because he’s a traditionalist and they love strong man rulers.

by fosk 4y ago

laidoffamazon 4y ago

Oil prices already eased, we're refilling the SPR at a significant profit at the ~73$ floor.

voisin 4y ago

> The inflation narrative is over, it’s all about a potential recession now. You can have stagflation: a recession with inflation. This is the economic boogeyman that literally every central banker has worried about for his or her entire career. Inflation is certainly not “over” - still running extremely hot relative to the last decade. Better than before the rate hikes, but by no means good or over.

cmmeur01 4y ago
Any normal time period would be considered “extremely hot” compared to the last decade+ of artificially low rates.
- voisin 4y ago
  Can you expand on why you think inflation was “artificially low”?
  - danaris 4y ago
    I read it as the interest rates being artificially low...
    - voisin 4y ago
      Ok but then if interest rates were artificially low, then you would expect inflation to be artificially high but it wasn’t (at least by official measures). So the parent commenter is saying anything would be extremely hot given the last decade plus of artificially low rates, which is the exactly opposite result from what one would expect. (which begs the question: what does it mean to be artificially low? Compared to what?)

KptMarchewa 4y ago

>Putin is now agreeing to potentially think about negotiations This is as red herring as it can be. No remotely serious analysis of this war can take anything Kremlin says at face value.

Tanjreeve 4y ago
I've not seen anything convincing that Ukraine are going to stop till they have crimea back even if Putin did want to "negotiate" keeping areas they invaded. Ukraine already tried appeasing Russia in 2014 after the last invasion and now they have the current situation so I doubt any decision with actual skin in the game (aka Ukraine) are going to be trying that again anytime soon.

candiddevmike 4y ago

China is being ravaged by COVID right now, your bottlenecks are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

p_l 4y ago

> As China fully re-opens, those will be resolved. "Reopening", and caused by it pandemic speedrun is already bringing back more supply chain disruptions > - Russia’s war with Ukraine will end (Putin is now agreeing to potentially think about negotiations). Oil prices will ease Putin is trying to "win" the war by insisting on talks where they keep the territory. Anyone looking closely knows that's not going to be accepted even as a premise to start talks.

cjbgkagh 4y ago

Putin was always willing to negotiate and there have been attempts at negotiation before and during the conflict, what matters are the pre-conditions to negotiations. If the pre-conditions are too strong then in effect it blocks negotiations and it means the overtures to negotiate are simply done for political reasons. We’re being told that only now Putin is ready to negotiate so I’m assuming that means the pre-conditions have weakened but I’m having a hard time finding out what that change is. Maybe they’ve given up their demand for a de-militarized Ukraine? The ban from entry to NATO? We’re also being told that this willingness to negotiate is a sign of weakness and eminent failure for the Russians so Ukraine shouldn’t negotiate and should instead press their advantage. In effect we should not negotiate with people who are not-willing to negotiate nor with people who are… which only makes sense if we never intend to negotiate - a position that’s much easier to hold when we’re not paying the price of the failure to negotiate.

danaris 4y ago
Putin's version of "negotiations" has always been "give me what I want, and I might not kill thousands of you." If Ukraine is "pressing its advantage", it's to take back the territory that Russia has illegally attempted to annex. Please stop spreading Russian propaganda.
- birdymcbird 4y ago
  Which part of ops statement is Russian propaganda? At the onset of the current war, Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey immediately to begin diplomatic talks. You do realize we intervened and told Ukraine to walk away? This whole narrative that Putin is irrational, that Russia is just plain evil, and any contrary perspective is “Russian propaganda” reminds me of 2003 when questioning the Iraq war effort would get you labeled as a terrorists sympathizer. This war is far more nuanced than the US government-backed narrative being pushed in the mainstream media. That itself is propaganda. And what’s truly embarrassing is people like yourself actively try to shut down any discussion or contrarian views. If it doesn’t conform to your view of the world, it’s propaganda.
  - 4y ago

ChuckNorris89 4y ago

>Russia’s war with Ukraine will end (Putin is now agreeing to potentially think about negotiations) "Potentially think about negotiations" is a long long way from the war ending. Also Putin's terms are absurd. He wants to keep half of Ukraine while evading persecution for the crimes against humanity the Russian army caused against civilian population. That's not gonna fly in Kiev, who wants all their territories back including Crimea, and the guilty parties held accountable at the Hague for their crimes, plus war reparations being paid, which is not gonna fly in Moscow.

coffeebeqn 4y ago
Putin would want “peace” only to have more time to build up his army and continue the invasion in 2-5 years. It’s insane how naïve some people are still about russias intentions after everything they’ve done
- api 4y ago
  A decent chunk of the right isn’t naive. They want Putin to win because he’s a traditionalist and they love strong man rulers.