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>"China has no economy without the West." Loosing West as a trade partner will really hurt China but it will not be the end. There is the rest of the world to
by FpUser 4y ago
>"China has no economy without the West."
Loosing West as a trade partner will really hurt China but it will not be the end. There is the rest of the world to trade with. China is building trade with Africa, South America, Asia etc. etc.
Besides I do not think a real decoupling will happen bar some major catastrophe. It will be as much economic disaster for the West at its current stage as it will be for China.
As energy importer China can rely on Russia, SA and other oil rich countries whom the US does not love very much. So I'd say they're safe in this regard.
>"The way Ukraine/Russia conflict is going is likely giving them pause."
I do not think China even needs this example. They can just simply wait.
- rapsey 4y agoCan they protect the sea supply lines from the US navy? Highly doubtful. Without those China grinds to a halt and starves. They are highly dependent on the americas for their food. Being an export economy losing your market is much more devastating.
- katbyte 4y agothey also import a lot of energy like coal from Australia
- nradov 4y agoIn particular the US could declare a blockade and drop a handful of naval mines near Chinese ports. At that point almost all neutral merchant ships would have to avoid those ports because it's virtually impossible to obtain insurance in conflict zones, especially because insurers can't risk violating US financial sanctions.
- FpUser 4y agoThe blockade is a war act. If China starts the war then sure. Otherwise blockading China by "dropping naval mines near their ports" is sci-fi area.
- nradov 4y agoYes, of course. Declaring a blockade and mining harbors would only happen as a response to some sort of major aggressive act by China. It would be an act of war, but still a step below direct kinetic attacks on the Chinese military. It's possible to de-escalate from a blockade.
- FpUser 4y ago>"It's possible to de-escalate from a blockade." How? Oh please remove the blockade, we'll be a good girl from here on? Yeah sure. You think they would even let it get to the stage when harbors are mined? The only realistic and safe course of actions is for the West to get their shit together and start very gradual decoupling. This will of course be reciprocal and the end result will be multi-polar world with ever changing alliances. And after a while the trade between "enemies" will resume again and the circle will continue.
- FpUser 4y ago>"Can they protect the sea supply lines from the US navy?" The US will not attack China's ships (assuming China did not start the war). Doing this is straight WWIII scenario. All bets are off in this case. You think the US is suicidal?