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If only because you're probably doing two dozen moon missions a year TOPS - probably far less than that - but FSD needs to handle millions of trips flawlessly.

If only because you're probably doing two dozen moon missions a year TOPS - probably far less than that - but FSD needs to handle millions of trips flawlessly. But yeah, at some point he should have wised up and stopped saying that FSD was gonna be ready Any Day Now.

api 4y ago
The hard thing about FSD is related to the scale. It’s the long tail of situations it has to deal with, many of which require some kind of model or understanding of the world outside the car. It’s the worst sort of problem, one where 10% of the work gets you 90% of the way there and the other 90% of the work is needed to get you the other 10%. Problems like this are really bad for creating this mirage that you’ve almost got it when in reality you are far from the end.
- ajross 4y ago
  I dinged you for this in a different comment too, but it's clearer here: you're doing exactly the conflation of "Full Self Driving" the product with "Full Autonomy" the concept that the linked law is trying to prevent! The former has value and people will buy it even if the latter can't be delivered in totality. Making Tesla rename their product does not mean their cars magically stop driving themselves, and especially does not mean that there isn't a market for people (that's me, hi!) who want cars that can drive themselves.
  - spookie 4y ago
    I'm sorry, but there's no other way to interpret "full self driving". It means, intuitively, that self driving has mastered all aspects of driving. It doesn't leave space for interpretation in which only specific parts of driving are possible. At least in my mind.
dundarious 4y ago
He went so far as to say that it was financially irresponsible to not buy a Tesla, as it was the only car that was fully hardware capable, and that had FSD software coming in about a year. We are very far from the touted fleets of Tesla robotaxis, independently-operated or otherwise.
- recuter 4y ago
  He also went as far as saying the stock is too high. People just hear whatever they want to hear.
  - cactusplant7374 4y ago
    Why is he so against short sellers and Bill Gates in particular?

api 4y ago

The hard thing about FSD is related to the scale. It’s the long tail of situations it has to deal with, many of which require some kind of model or understanding of the world outside the car. It’s the worst sort of problem, one where 10% of the work gets you 90% of the way there and the other 90% of the work is needed to get you the other 10%. Problems like this are really bad for creating this mirage that you’ve almost got it when in reality you are far from the end.

ajross 4y ago
I dinged you for this in a different comment too, but it's clearer here: you're doing exactly the conflation of "Full Self Driving" the product with "Full Autonomy" the concept that the linked law is trying to prevent! The former has value and people will buy it even if the latter can't be delivered in totality. Making Tesla rename their product does not mean their cars magically stop driving themselves, and especially does not mean that there isn't a market for people (that's me, hi!) who want cars that can drive themselves.
- spookie 4y ago
  I'm sorry, but there's no other way to interpret "full self driving". It means, intuitively, that self driving has mastered all aspects of driving. It doesn't leave space for interpretation in which only specific parts of driving are possible. At least in my mind.

dundarious 4y ago

He went so far as to say that it was financially irresponsible to not buy a Tesla, as it was the only car that was fully hardware capable, and that had FSD software coming in about a year. We are very far from the touted fleets of Tesla robotaxis, independently-operated or otherwise.

recuter 4y ago
He also went as far as saying the stock is too high. People just hear whatever they want to hear.
- cactusplant7374 4y ago
  Why is he so against short sellers and Bill Gates in particular?