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Lot of confidence that our careers are going to be OK.. I'm suspicious because if there were sufficient AI to replace us, we would be in the position of our sal

Lot of confidence that our careers are going to be OK.. I'm suspicious because if there were sufficient AI to replace us, we would be in the position of our salaries depending on us not understanding that fact. Seems to me that the only thing stopping AI from doing our jobs in 5 years will be the legal department.. at that point I guess my last job will be to set up the on-prem/cloud infra that runs the model. AI doesn't change the requirement of owning your own data. After that, I dunno. What jobs will be left? AI trainer, mascot at Disneyland, and CEO? I might have the time horizon wrong but I do think it's going to be a bloodbath. There's nothing about previous industrial revolutions to suggest it would be anything but. And if you think you'll be able to see it coming, have a look at https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/ https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/ . This problem space is starting to feel less like fusion and more like flight

realharo 4y ago
Are you picturing a world where companies are still making mostly the same kind of products as today, just with robots instead of people? The change AI brings could be lot more fundamental than that. What that means for jobs though, is really hard to predict.
- zarzavat 4y ago
  Is it that hard to predict? In case of AGI, humanity is likely to go extinct - we already live a perilous existence on this dot. Jobs will be the least of our worries.
  - realharo 4y ago
    I meant this decade or so.
  - throwawayoaky 4y ago
    it's possible we'll be able to blow up the AGI before it's finished with us. Maybe the best possible world is one where an early AGI destroys a huge amount of capital and ruins the reputation of its successors so they're never turned on.
- throwawayoaky 4y ago
  I'm picturing a curve of increasing steepness that we'll all inevitably fall off of eventually, but where the marginal utility of hanging on for one more cycle increases.
ilaksh 4y ago
Instead of thinking about jobs, think about startups that solve problems. You can "hire" the perfect AI or robots as employees.
- throwawayoaky 4y ago
  for very rich values of "you"

realharo 4y ago

Are you picturing a world where companies are still making mostly the same kind of products as today, just with robots instead of people? The change AI brings could be lot more fundamental than that. What that means for jobs though, is really hard to predict.

zarzavat 4y ago
Is it that hard to predict? In case of AGI, humanity is likely to go extinct - we already live a perilous existence on this dot. Jobs will be the least of our worries.
- realharo 4y ago
  I meant this decade or so.
- throwawayoaky 4y ago
  it's possible we'll be able to blow up the AGI before it's finished with us. Maybe the best possible world is one where an early AGI destroys a huge amount of capital and ruins the reputation of its successors so they're never turned on.
throwawayoaky 4y ago
I'm picturing a curve of increasing steepness that we'll all inevitably fall off of eventually, but where the marginal utility of hanging on for one more cycle increases.

ilaksh 4y ago

Instead of thinking about jobs, think about startups that solve problems. You can "hire" the perfect AI or robots as employees.

throwawayoaky 4y ago
for very rich values of "you"