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There is a happy middle ground somewhere between those two :) That revenue metric is a trailing indicator. Metrics that give insight on whether users are havin

There is a happy middle ground somewhere between those two :) That revenue metric is a trailing indicator. Metrics that give insight on whether users are having a good experience can lead revenue metrics significantly. Also this may be orthogonal to what you're talking about, but operational metrics are useful to understand costs (eg. if every new feature increases memory usage, eventually that will have a cost impact) and avoid volatility (eg. operational metrics often presage outages).

pixl97 4y ago
Heh, a more dismal view of why metrics that lead revenue are being tracked with such fervor, it's so the internal stockholders can either purchase more, or file with the SEC to sell off in the required timeframe before it's too late.
- HWR_14 4y ago
  I mean, internal metrics also let them change something. If it's able to predict earnings in a few months, surely changing whatever is driving those metrics has value.
- fsckboy 4y ago
  trading on inside information does move the stock market price in the direction it should be moving and makes the market more rational and efficient so portfolio theory buyers and sellers of the stock make better decisions.
marcosdumay 4y ago
> Metrics that give insight on whether users are having a good experience can lead revenue metrics significantly. Oh, yeah. If you are able to discover those metrics, there's a billion-sized market opportunity to apply them. You will certainly be able to get a share of those. We have some partial proxies, that stop working almost as soon as you start to make decisions based on them, and a huge bunch of snake oil. But the metrics you are looking for do not actually exist.
- sanderjd 4y ago
  Sure they do, they're just very product-specific and an unsexy slog for the reasons you're highlighting. It is definitely a valid optimization to not even try, and just stick to very granular trailing metrics. But that doesn't mean there is never any way to look at how people are using a product over time and draw valid conclusions that can be used as input into good decisions.
  - marcosdumay 4y ago
    > way to look at how people are using a product over time and draw valid conclusions Well, that exists. Metrics that summarize those conclusions is what don't exist. Metrics are a different thing from information. You can discover if people like your product, it just takes effort and isn't accessible to people without any knowledge on the subject.
    - sanderjd 4y ago
      Let me give a concrete example. Say it's a subscription service. Say you track three metrics: - Revenue. - Subscription renewal / cancellation by monthly cohort. - Signups. Say the second metric shows that you have a meaningful subscription drop-off after 18 months. By comparing that metric with the signup metric, you might be able to successfully foresee a revenue drop-off months before it materializes in the revenue metric alone, buying valuable time to figure out what to do. Tracking a revenue metric alone always runs the risk of surprising you in real time when it ticks down and you have no idea why.
      - marcosdumay 4y ago
        Hum... That metric doesn't tell whether the users are having a good experience. If that was your point, I misunderstood your comment. Yes, there are metrics that will help you predict problems. My comment wasn't about this.
        sanderjd 4y ago

pixl97 4y ago

Heh, a more dismal view of why metrics that lead revenue are being tracked with such fervor, it's so the internal stockholders can either purchase more, or file with the SEC to sell off in the required timeframe before it's too late.

HWR_14 4y ago
I mean, internal metrics also let them change something. If it's able to predict earnings in a few months, surely changing whatever is driving those metrics has value.
fsckboy 4y ago
trading on inside information does move the stock market price in the direction it should be moving and makes the market more rational and efficient so portfolio theory buyers and sellers of the stock make better decisions.

marcosdumay 4y ago

> Metrics that give insight on whether users are having a good experience can lead revenue metrics significantly. Oh, yeah. If you are able to discover those metrics, there's a billion-sized market opportunity to apply them. You will certainly be able to get a share of those. We have some partial proxies, that stop working almost as soon as you start to make decisions based on them, and a huge bunch of snake oil. But the metrics you are looking for do not actually exist.

sanderjd 4y ago
Sure they do, they're just very product-specific and an unsexy slog for the reasons you're highlighting. It is definitely a valid optimization to not even try, and just stick to very granular trailing metrics. But that doesn't mean there is never any way to look at how people are using a product over time and draw valid conclusions that can be used as input into good decisions.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  > way to look at how people are using a product over time and draw valid conclusions Well, that exists. Metrics that summarize those conclusions is what don't exist. Metrics are a different thing from information. You can discover if people like your product, it just takes effort and isn't accessible to people without any knowledge on the subject.
  - sanderjd 4y ago
    Let me give a concrete example. Say it's a subscription service. Say you track three metrics: - Revenue. - Subscription renewal / cancellation by monthly cohort. - Signups. Say the second metric shows that you have a meaningful subscription drop-off after 18 months. By comparing that metric with the signup metric, you might be able to successfully foresee a revenue drop-off months before it materializes in the revenue metric alone, buying valuable time to figure out what to do. Tracking a revenue metric alone always runs the risk of surprising you in real time when it ticks down and you have no idea why.
    - marcosdumay 4y ago
      Hum... That metric doesn't tell whether the users are having a good experience. If that was your point, I misunderstood your comment. Yes, there are metrics that will help you predict problems. My comment wasn't about this.
      - sanderjd 4y ago