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I suspect he's going to get smacked hard by the AGI problem and ultimately concede defeat on his biggest goal while achieving some success in the current less-t

by hajile 4y ago

I suspect he's going to get smacked hard by the AGI problem and ultimately concede defeat on his biggest goal while achieving some success in the current less-than-general ML stuff.

Jeema101 4y ago
It's as if nobody's learned anything from the 'self-driving car' boondoggle of the last 20 years or so. Any problem can seem easy when you don't know the things you don't know.
motoxpro 4y ago
Have a listen to some interviews. Doing it out of love for the problem more so than anything else. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4
LASR 4y ago
I don’t think you’d need to be alone in solving the AGI problem. Carmack is an engineer at heart. I am sure there are some yet undiscovered technical blockers in that space that he will solve.
worldsayshi 4y ago
If you solve a few more problems with chatgpt it's going to become useful enough that people are going to stop caring so much about the AGI label. It's going to quack like a duck enough to change a lot of industries.
- methodical 4y ago
  > "If you solve a few more problems" The amount of work done by these 7 words is incredible. ChatGPT is far from changing a "lot" of industries. Still pathetic at programming (which isn't its purpose, but is AlphaCode's purpose; which also sucks), use of it for copy writing is nullified since it seems Google will crack down on AI generated copy writing. DALL-E is also a nice party trick but far from being particularly useful. I'd certainly love to have a useful AI but I think we're experiencing a 80-20 rule situation right now, and that it'll be a few years before we see anything that makes significant improvements on current solutions.
  - cauthon 4y ago
    The forever relevant xkcd https://xkcd.com/1831/ https://xkcd.com/1831/
    - worldsayshi 4y ago
      It's worth it to try with fresh eyes though right? Maybe you get lucky?
  - lovecg 4y ago
    It boggles my mind that people are now dismissive towards technology that would have been literal science fiction _a year ago_ while at the same time being pessimistic about future progress.
    - woeirua 4y ago
      The world is full of compelling tech demos that fail to make much of a splash.
      - kfarr 4y ago
        We are mistaking this for a splash when instead it is the ripple before the shock wave
        otabdeveloper4 4y ago
        No. "AI" isn't creating new information complexity. (In fact it's making the world simpler, by regurgitating smooth-sounding statistically average statements.) Information complexity is the true test of intelligence, and the current crop of "AI" is actually making computing dumber, not smarter. But yes, "dumber" is often more useful. But the industries "AI" will revolutionize are the kinds of industries where "dumber" is more profitable (e.g., copywriting spam, internet pornography, casual games, etc.) so the world will be poorer for it.
      - TapWaterBandit 4y ago
dqpb 4y ago
I believe we're still 15 years out from AGI, but I also think we could start creating autonomous agents right now that make people feel like it's almost AGI. I think Carmack could get something out the door that feels like that.
mhh__ 4y ago
I also think he's going to lose it massively (technical background aside, i.e. he's not an applied mathematician, it's a huge problem) BUT the AI industry is currently run with a very childish approach to software and programming, if his company can attack the infrastructure wisely they could really improve the industry. No idea how to make that money money though.
marvin 4y ago
It’s not exactly a bold predction that someone will fail to solve a grand, millennia-old problem of philosophy and science.
c3534l 4y ago
Honestly seems like a better fit for him than VR. VR may be games, but everyone is saying his strengths are technical, not organizational. Seems like he wants to work on hard technical problems and thats what he's good at.

by hajile 4y ago

I suspect he's going to get smacked hard by the AGI problem and ultimately concede defeat on his biggest goal while achieving some success in the current less-than-general ML stuff.

Jeema101 4y ago

It's as if nobody's learned anything from the 'self-driving car' boondoggle of the last 20 years or so. Any problem can seem easy when you don't know the things you don't know.

motoxpro 4y ago

Have a listen to some interviews. Doing it out of love for the problem more so than anything else. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I845O57ZSy4

LASR 4y ago

I don’t think you’d need to be alone in solving the AGI problem. Carmack is an engineer at heart. I am sure there are some yet undiscovered technical blockers in that space that he will solve.

worldsayshi 4y ago

If you solve a few more problems with chatgpt it's going to become useful enough that people are going to stop caring so much about the AGI label. It's going to quack like a duck enough to change a lot of industries.

methodical 4y ago
> "If you solve a few more problems" The amount of work done by these 7 words is incredible. ChatGPT is far from changing a "lot" of industries. Still pathetic at programming (which isn't its purpose, but is AlphaCode's purpose; which also sucks), use of it for copy writing is nullified since it seems Google will crack down on AI generated copy writing. DALL-E is also a nice party trick but far from being particularly useful. I'd certainly love to have a useful AI but I think we're experiencing a 80-20 rule situation right now, and that it'll be a few years before we see anything that makes significant improvements on current solutions.
- cauthon 4y ago
  The forever relevant xkcd https://xkcd.com/1831/ https://xkcd.com/1831/
  - worldsayshi 4y ago
    It's worth it to try with fresh eyes though right? Maybe you get lucky?
- lovecg 4y ago
  It boggles my mind that people are now dismissive towards technology that would have been literal science fiction _a year ago_ while at the same time being pessimistic about future progress.
  - woeirua 4y ago
    The world is full of compelling tech demos that fail to make much of a splash.
    - kfarr 4y ago
      We are mistaking this for a splash when instead it is the ripple before the shock wave
      - otabdeveloper4 4y ago
        No. "AI" isn't creating new information complexity. (In fact it's making the world simpler, by regurgitating smooth-sounding statistically average statements.) Information complexity is the true test of intelligence, and the current crop of "AI" is actually making computing dumber, not smarter. But yes, "dumber" is often more useful. But the industries "AI" will revolutionize are the kinds of industries where "dumber" is more profitable (e.g., copywriting spam, internet pornography, casual games, etc.) so the world will be poorer for it.
    - TapWaterBandit 4y ago

dqpb 4y ago

I believe we're still 15 years out from AGI, but I also think we could start creating autonomous agents right now that make people feel like it's almost AGI. I think Carmack could get something out the door that feels like that.

mhh__ 4y ago

I also think he's going to lose it massively (technical background aside, i.e. he's not an applied mathematician, it's a huge problem) BUT the AI industry is currently run with a very childish approach to software and programming, if his company can attack the infrastructure wisely they could really improve the industry. No idea how to make that money money though.

marvin 4y ago

It’s not exactly a bold predction that someone will fail to solve a grand, millennia-old problem of philosophy and science.

c3534l 4y ago

Honestly seems like a better fit for him than VR. VR may be games, but everyone is saying his strengths are technical, not organizational. Seems like he wants to work on hard technical problems and thats what he's good at.