4 ms·

The post holiday gathering spike is rather obvious. Not just for COVID but for everything. We really should have test kits, and people should test BEFORE trav

The post holiday gathering spike is rather obvious. Not just for COVID but for everything. We really should have test kits, and people should test BEFORE travel. A national level policy of full refunds if tested positive (for any illness / disease) could help prevent the needless spread of illness.

timr 4y ago
> The post holiday gathering spike is rather obvious. Not just for COVID but for everything. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. It's not a "holiday gathering spike". It's literally the same respiratory pathogen pattern we've seen for as long as we've bothered to look: in the winter, as we go inside and the air becomes cool and dry, respiratory infections go up. The viruses evolved to work this way, because it's a great survival strategy when your host is a social animal that doesn't/can't live outside in the cold. It happens in parts of the world where Christmas and Thanksgiving aren't a thing (see Japan and China and Korea right now). It happens on the opposite schedule in the lower half of the planet (even where Christmas and/or Thanksgiving are a thing). This impulse to blame/scold people for a natural phenomenon is unnerving.
- ampersandy 4y ago
  What about staying inside with cool/dry air causes these infections? Genuinely curious.
  - timr 4y ago
    Staying inside should be obvious by now. These pathogens evolved to exploit the fact that people get together in close quarters and breathe together. Cold/dry air: most respiratory viruses we've looked at survive for longer in cold, dry, dark air.
  - version_five 4y ago
    Sorry I don't have a link but I read few years ago that dry air typical of heated indoor spaces in winter means that virus (or maybe virus + moisture we breath out) stay suspended in the air longer
  - valarauko 4y ago
    Low relative humidity dries out the aerosol droplets faster before they have a chance to settle out of the air.
  - ma2t 4y ago
    Recent studies suggest it's not just staying indoors or viruses hanging around longer in cold/dry air. Exposure to cold temperatures may suppress specific immune mechanisms in respiratory tract. See paper out this month, Huang et al "Cold exposure impairs extracellular vesicle swarm–mediated nasal antiviral immunity" https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091674922014233?via%3Dihub https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009167492...
- gernb 4y ago
  > in the winter, as we go inside and the air becomes cool and dry, respiratory infections go up. This winter is the cause the please explain Japan which had it's biggest spikes in summer
  - timr 4y ago
    They didn't. They're having a big spike, right now [1]. It's going to end up being bigger than the summer wave. They had a big spike last winter, too, but they weren't testing as much then. Comparing the absolute magnitude of these spikes is fraught, because they depend on the number of tests being conducted, (which was rapidly increasing over the course of last year), as well as the many other behavioral changes that were happening at the same time. [1] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/japan https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/japan
    - gernb 4y ago
      Did you even look at the page you linked to? Their top spike is in July/August
      - timr 4y ago
        Yes. Re-read what I wrote.
- TurkishPoptart 4y ago
  >This impulse to blame/scold people for a natural phenomenon is unnerving. Yeah, but as far as our governments will share more information on this, this SARS-CoV-2 virus was invented by people in a lab, and it escaped from a lab, due to human error.
chrisco255 4y ago
Diseases are inevitable. It's not all that useful to be testing for every random disease that comes up. Testing doesn't help. Lockdowns don't help. Even mRNA treatments don't help. You WILL get Covid. You WILL get the flu. And your immune system will get stronger as you get exposed. Covid used to be novel. Now it's endemic and mutates multiple times per year. It's looking more and more like Covid will be with us for decades if not forever, just like the flu and the common cold.
- droopyEyelids 4y ago
  Your 'inevitable' comment reminds me of the novice security mindset where something either Secure or it is Not Secure. In the world of security, you grow up, leave behind the simple binary descriptions, and assess impact of event and threat you're defending against. This applies to disease safety as well. It's not just 'inevitable' or 'preventable', but there is a difference between getting sick once a year and getting sick every month. Between working in a hospital and working from home. Between being sick by yourself and spreading it to your extended family. There is a risk assessment to be done, and calculated measures to be taken.
- jimjimjim 4y ago
  gah! Sure fine whatever. you'll get covid. but how many times? If you test and you discover you currently have covid maybe don't be a raging asshole and give it to your family and friends!
  - jimjimjim 4y ago
    and while I'm on it, since we are all getting it why wouldn't you get the v word? It will help strengthen your immune system (as will getting covid) and the bit that people keep missing out it will lessen the affects you suffer when you get it.
- micromacrofoot 4y ago
  There seem to be some amount of long-term risks associated with covid that aren't present in influenza though. I hope to continue avoiding covid myself.

timr 4y ago

> The post holiday gathering spike is rather obvious. Not just for COVID but for everything. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. It's not a "holiday gathering spike". It's literally the same respiratory pathogen pattern we've seen for as long as we've bothered to look: in the winter, as we go inside and the air becomes cool and dry, respiratory infections go up. The viruses evolved to work this way, because it's a great survival strategy when your host is a social animal that doesn't/can't live outside in the cold. It happens in parts of the world where Christmas and Thanksgiving aren't a thing (see Japan and China and Korea right now). It happens on the opposite schedule in the lower half of the planet (even where Christmas and/or Thanksgiving are a thing). This impulse to blame/scold people for a natural phenomenon is unnerving.

ampersandy 4y ago
What about staying inside with cool/dry air causes these infections? Genuinely curious.
- timr 4y ago
  Staying inside should be obvious by now. These pathogens evolved to exploit the fact that people get together in close quarters and breathe together. Cold/dry air: most respiratory viruses we've looked at survive for longer in cold, dry, dark air.
- version_five 4y ago
  Sorry I don't have a link but I read few years ago that dry air typical of heated indoor spaces in winter means that virus (or maybe virus + moisture we breath out) stay suspended in the air longer
- valarauko 4y ago
  Low relative humidity dries out the aerosol droplets faster before they have a chance to settle out of the air.
- ma2t 4y ago
  Recent studies suggest it's not just staying indoors or viruses hanging around longer in cold/dry air. Exposure to cold temperatures may suppress specific immune mechanisms in respiratory tract. See paper out this month, Huang et al "Cold exposure impairs extracellular vesicle swarm–mediated nasal antiviral immunity" https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091674922014233?via%3Dihub https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009167492...
gernb 4y ago
> in the winter, as we go inside and the air becomes cool and dry, respiratory infections go up. This winter is the cause the please explain Japan which had it's biggest spikes in summer
- timr 4y ago
  They didn't. They're having a big spike, right now [1]. It's going to end up being bigger than the summer wave. They had a big spike last winter, too, but they weren't testing as much then. Comparing the absolute magnitude of these spikes is fraught, because they depend on the number of tests being conducted, (which was rapidly increasing over the course of last year), as well as the many other behavioral changes that were happening at the same time. [1] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/japan https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/japan
  - gernb 4y ago
    Did you even look at the page you linked to? Their top spike is in July/August
    - timr 4y ago
      Yes. Re-read what I wrote.
TurkishPoptart 4y ago
>This impulse to blame/scold people for a natural phenomenon is unnerving. Yeah, but as far as our governments will share more information on this, this SARS-CoV-2 virus was invented by people in a lab, and it escaped from a lab, due to human error.

chrisco255 4y ago

Diseases are inevitable. It's not all that useful to be testing for every random disease that comes up. Testing doesn't help. Lockdowns don't help. Even mRNA treatments don't help. You WILL get Covid. You WILL get the flu. And your immune system will get stronger as you get exposed. Covid used to be novel. Now it's endemic and mutates multiple times per year. It's looking more and more like Covid will be with us for decades if not forever, just like the flu and the common cold.

droopyEyelids 4y ago
Your 'inevitable' comment reminds me of the novice security mindset where something either Secure or it is Not Secure. In the world of security, you grow up, leave behind the simple binary descriptions, and assess impact of event and threat you're defending against. This applies to disease safety as well. It's not just 'inevitable' or 'preventable', but there is a difference between getting sick once a year and getting sick every month. Between working in a hospital and working from home. Between being sick by yourself and spreading it to your extended family. There is a risk assessment to be done, and calculated measures to be taken.
jimjimjim 4y ago
gah! Sure fine whatever. you'll get covid. but how many times? If you test and you discover you currently have covid maybe don't be a raging asshole and give it to your family and friends!
- jimjimjim 4y ago
  and while I'm on it, since we are all getting it why wouldn't you get the v word? It will help strengthen your immune system (as will getting covid) and the bit that people keep missing out it will lessen the affects you suffer when you get it.
micromacrofoot 4y ago
There seem to be some amount of long-term risks associated with covid that aren't present in influenza though. I hope to continue avoiding covid myself.