5 ms·

Unless I'm missing something, there is no actual evidence of "Binance being fucked" in the article other than their "stablecoin" (BUSD) having a lot of activity

Unless I'm missing something, there is no actual evidence of "Binance being fucked" in the article other than their "stablecoin" (BUSD) having a lot of activity. Nothing like FTX or the other examples where the price quickly went to zero, and their setups generally being very messy with the hindsight that the mess was evident. And the conclusion of all the speculation is that "Binance is fucked", although there is no indicators (yet?) that that's true. What am I missing here?

yesplorer 4y ago
You haven’t missed anything. It’s exactly it. Someone is trying to get some cheap clicks.
- ignoramous 4y ago
  > Someone is trying to get some cheap clicks. It isn't just that. The same network effects that propelled cryptocurrencies and exchanges to the moon are now facing its uglier side. It cuts both ways. There's a chance these currencies and exchanges emerge out of this boom-now-bust cycle stronger than before. Time will tell.
  - brookst 4y ago
    You’re on to something there. Finance is all about trends, and when to follow them versus when to bet against them. But crypto in particular seems subject to wild extremes of irrationality. It attracts people willing to to ignore fundamentals and move serious money based on faith and intuition.
    - JackFr 4y ago
      Finance is really about allocating capital to productive uses. Crypto sits on the border of greater-fool investing and Ponzi schemes.
      - brookst 4y ago
        More or less agreed, though crypto also borders gold rush investing, which sometimes pans out. Usually not. But sometimes.
drexlspivey 4y ago
You are missing that this is HN and anything bashing crypto reaches the first page no matter how trash it is
gwn7 4y ago
Agreed. I'm getting tired of this kind of articles. I've seen nothing in this article to support that "Binance is fucked". Since there is nothing to support that, I can only assume that the raison d'etre of this article is that the author wants Binance to get fucked, so he's speculating. Because apparently that's how crypto works.
- raesene9 4y ago
  The thing is, with the lack of clarity/audits etc for a lot of organizations in this world, you'll never get clear proof before problems become all too apparent. Look at FTX, Celsius et al, lots of people called FUD when issues were raised there...
  - gwn7 4y ago
    By that logic should we assume that every crypto company who don't do audits that meet your standards is "fucked"? For instance, do you think Tether is "fucked" too? I'm not saying that Binance is doing everything great. I have no idea. But isn't saying that Binance is "fucked" a bit much at this time, with the current evidence at hand? I'm just saying that this is bad journalism.
    - snowwrestler 4y ago
      > By that logic should we assume that every crypto company who don't do audits that meet your standards is "fucked"? Yes, this is in fact the rationale approach to financial institutions. It is why solidly-run companies invest in audits: to demonstrate, on a regular basis, that they are solvent and stable (not fucked).
      - gwn7 4y ago
        Look, I actually agree with the core of your argument. No / bad audits are a red flag to me too. I'm just saying that using the word "fucked" still is speculative and an overstatement. I would use "untrustworthy", "shady", "dangerous" etc, but not "fucked". That's all I'm saying.
fredgrott 4y ago
Well, for one $2billion claw back from FTX investment. CEO says he can whether it via letting lawyers handle it, not very convincing as far as having $2billion handy to hand back via fraud conveyance issues with FTX.
rippercushions 4y ago
Off the top of my head: - "A lot of activity" here means people withdrawing on the order of $4 billion from Binance in the last week alone, and that's net (deposits - withdrawals) - CZ's much-touted Mazars "audit" that was nothing of the sort: liabilities missing entirely, Binance's massive stablecoin holdings missing entirely, only partial coverage of BTC/ETH holdings, sketchy transfers of large amounts into those account before the attestation and out right after, etc. Here's a good summary: https://youtu.be/42VnEndJ9mo https://youtu.be/42VnEndJ9mo - Numerous regulatory organizations announcing investigations into Binance - CZ's own leaked private comments about $250k withdrawals of Tether threatening to destabilize crypto as a whole (!?) - Binance losing an unknown quantity to the FTX collapse, but at the very least a significant fraction of the $500M or so they had in FTT
- capableweb 4y ago
  Your comment is a lot better (and more information dense) than the submission article. Can we change the URL to just point to your comment instead? Many of those things are not mentioned in the article at all, so thanks for adding additional information.
  - atian 4y ago
    > Your comment is a lot better (and more information dense) than the submission article. Can we change the URL to just point to your comment instead? No it’s not. It’s unclear why some of the points are relevant to Binance’s health. Edit: @rippercushions they are factually correct, but there is no context. With context, the points make even less sense. Edit 2: @rippercushions Sorry then it’s not on your comment, just the parent’s proposal that it stands alone better than the speculation offered in the article.
    - rippercushions 4y ago
      I don't suppose you'd like to expand a little on what, exactly, is factually wrong with my comment? GP was claiming there are "no indicators" that Binance is fucked, so I provided a list of recent things about Binance that sound pretty fucked to me.
Proven 4y ago
helsinkiandrew 4y ago
It might have looked like there was a run on Binance earlier in the week - but much less so now (Friday): "Binance Withdrawals Slow After Record Customer Outflows" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-15/withdrawals-on-binance-slow-down-after-record-customer-outflows https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-15/withdrawa... Hundreds of millions are leaving a day, but not the billions
prepend 4y ago
There doesn’t seem to be anything new. But the same reasons I’ve always thought they were fucked- they are attesting things and won’t get audited. There’s a really simple solution for them and every reputable finance company (and many unreputable ones) - get an audit. And they’ve dodged it for years. I can’t imagine a situation where I would ever bank with a company that wouldn’t be under regulation or have an independent confirmation of their solvency. They are fucked in the sense that the only reason to not audit a multi-billion dollar firm that’s based on trust is that they are full of horse apples. I’m surprised that they’ve lasted this long without blowing up. I hope they pull it out, for the sake of their customers.
raesene9 4y ago
For me the concern with Binance is that it's the biggest crypto exchange in the world, yet has no geographical base and has (AFAIK) never had a proper audit. Without more clarity, there's no way anyone can know for sure if all is well or not, and that's not a great place to put your money given there is likely no insurance if it goes wrong.
- logifail 4y ago
  > [Binance is] the biggest crypto exchange in the world, yet has no geographical base (Sorry for sounding clueless) they're a company without a physical (street) address? Are there (m)any instances of legitimate companies without any physical presence? Not even a "Acme Widgets Inc c/o Fred Flintstone Accountants, 123 The High Street, Anytown..."?
  - raesene9 4y ago
    AFAIK no, as in there's no "Binance headquarters" you can go to, or write to... The company is apparently registered in the Cayman Islands, but it's pretty easy to register a company there without operations.
    - logifail 4y ago
      > The company is apparently registered in the Cayman Islands If that's true why would they be coy about it? There are loads of jurisdictions where every single company invoice has to state the company's registration details (registered number and registered address).
      - raesene9 4y ago
        A company being registered somewhere is no more than a PO Box and some paperwork. My guess about why Binance avoids having a headquarters location would be trying to reduce the risk of regulators and tax authorities paying a lot more attention to them.
        4y ago
anothernewdude 4y ago
- They are leveraged - There will be a run on them as trust in Crypto is at an all time low - Even a well run bank will struggle in this situation. Binance is not that.
bambax 4y ago
Yes. Binance cannot be "fucked" by any meaning of the word. CZ claim they store customers' assets one to one. Either this is true, and they're safe, or it's not true, and they're engaging in the same fraud as FTX. But if they're a fraud, they won't be "fucked" until 1/ they're exposed (some evidence of the fraud is posted somewhere), and 2/ people believe it, and there's a run, and they collapse because of the fraud -- since without the fraud, a run should not cause a collapse. A simple rise in withdrawals isn't enough to announce their demise.
- soco 4y ago
  By this definition, they cannot be "fucked" in any situation - only their customers could get "fucked".
  - bambax 4y ago
    Yeah my comment is unclear. I mean they can't be presently fucked. They may become fucked in the future, if it turns out they were engaging in fraud. But for that to happen, some kind of evidence should be provided, and none has shown up yet.

yesplorer 4y ago

You haven’t missed anything. It’s exactly it. Someone is trying to get some cheap clicks.

ignoramous 4y ago
> Someone is trying to get some cheap clicks. It isn't just that. The same network effects that propelled cryptocurrencies and exchanges to the moon are now facing its uglier side. It cuts both ways. There's a chance these currencies and exchanges emerge out of this boom-now-bust cycle stronger than before. Time will tell.
- brookst 4y ago
  You’re on to something there. Finance is all about trends, and when to follow them versus when to bet against them. But crypto in particular seems subject to wild extremes of irrationality. It attracts people willing to to ignore fundamentals and move serious money based on faith and intuition.
  - JackFr 4y ago
    Finance is really about allocating capital to productive uses. Crypto sits on the border of greater-fool investing and Ponzi schemes.
    - brookst 4y ago
      More or less agreed, though crypto also borders gold rush investing, which sometimes pans out. Usually not. But sometimes.

drexlspivey 4y ago

You are missing that this is HN and anything bashing crypto reaches the first page no matter how trash it is

gwn7 4y ago

Agreed. I'm getting tired of this kind of articles. I've seen nothing in this article to support that "Binance is fucked". Since there is nothing to support that, I can only assume that the raison d'etre of this article is that the author wants Binance to get fucked, so he's speculating. Because apparently that's how crypto works.

raesene9 4y ago
The thing is, with the lack of clarity/audits etc for a lot of organizations in this world, you'll never get clear proof before problems become all too apparent. Look at FTX, Celsius et al, lots of people called FUD when issues were raised there...
- gwn7 4y ago
  By that logic should we assume that every crypto company who don't do audits that meet your standards is "fucked"? For instance, do you think Tether is "fucked" too? I'm not saying that Binance is doing everything great. I have no idea. But isn't saying that Binance is "fucked" a bit much at this time, with the current evidence at hand? I'm just saying that this is bad journalism.
  - snowwrestler 4y ago
    > By that logic should we assume that every crypto company who don't do audits that meet your standards is "fucked"? Yes, this is in fact the rationale approach to financial institutions. It is why solidly-run companies invest in audits: to demonstrate, on a regular basis, that they are solvent and stable (not fucked).
    - gwn7 4y ago
      Look, I actually agree with the core of your argument. No / bad audits are a red flag to me too. I'm just saying that using the word "fucked" still is speculative and an overstatement. I would use "untrustworthy", "shady", "dangerous" etc, but not "fucked". That's all I'm saying.

fredgrott 4y ago

Well, for one $2billion claw back from FTX investment. CEO says he can whether it via letting lawyers handle it, not very convincing as far as having $2billion handy to hand back via fraud conveyance issues with FTX.

rippercushions 4y ago

Off the top of my head: - "A lot of activity" here means people withdrawing on the order of $4 billion from Binance in the last week alone, and that's net (deposits - withdrawals) - CZ's much-touted Mazars "audit" that was nothing of the sort: liabilities missing entirely, Binance's massive stablecoin holdings missing entirely, only partial coverage of BTC/ETH holdings, sketchy transfers of large amounts into those account before the attestation and out right after, etc. Here's a good summary: https://youtu.be/42VnEndJ9mo https://youtu.be/42VnEndJ9mo - Numerous regulatory organizations announcing investigations into Binance - CZ's own leaked private comments about $250k withdrawals of Tether threatening to destabilize crypto as a whole (!?) - Binance losing an unknown quantity to the FTX collapse, but at the very least a significant fraction of the $500M or so they had in FTT

capableweb 4y ago
Your comment is a lot better (and more information dense) than the submission article. Can we change the URL to just point to your comment instead? Many of those things are not mentioned in the article at all, so thanks for adding additional information.
- atian 4y ago
  > Your comment is a lot better (and more information dense) than the submission article. Can we change the URL to just point to your comment instead? No it’s not. It’s unclear why some of the points are relevant to Binance’s health. Edit: @rippercushions they are factually correct, but there is no context. With context, the points make even less sense. Edit 2: @rippercushions Sorry then it’s not on your comment, just the parent’s proposal that it stands alone better than the speculation offered in the article.
  - rippercushions 4y ago
    I don't suppose you'd like to expand a little on what, exactly, is factually wrong with my comment? GP was claiming there are "no indicators" that Binance is fucked, so I provided a list of recent things about Binance that sound pretty fucked to me.

Proven 4y ago

helsinkiandrew 4y ago

It might have looked like there was a run on Binance earlier in the week - but much less so now (Friday): "Binance Withdrawals Slow After Record Customer Outflows" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-15/withdrawals-on-binance-slow-down-after-record-customer-outflows https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-15/withdrawa... Hundreds of millions are leaving a day, but not the billions

prepend 4y ago

There doesn’t seem to be anything new. But the same reasons I’ve always thought they were fucked- they are attesting things and won’t get audited. There’s a really simple solution for them and every reputable finance company (and many unreputable ones) - get an audit. And they’ve dodged it for years. I can’t imagine a situation where I would ever bank with a company that wouldn’t be under regulation or have an independent confirmation of their solvency. They are fucked in the sense that the only reason to not audit a multi-billion dollar firm that’s based on trust is that they are full of horse apples. I’m surprised that they’ve lasted this long without blowing up. I hope they pull it out, for the sake of their customers.

raesene9 4y ago

For me the concern with Binance is that it's the biggest crypto exchange in the world, yet has no geographical base and has (AFAIK) never had a proper audit. Without more clarity, there's no way anyone can know for sure if all is well or not, and that's not a great place to put your money given there is likely no insurance if it goes wrong.

logifail 4y ago
> [Binance is] the biggest crypto exchange in the world, yet has no geographical base (Sorry for sounding clueless) they're a company without a physical (street) address? Are there (m)any instances of legitimate companies without any physical presence? Not even a "Acme Widgets Inc c/o Fred Flintstone Accountants, 123 The High Street, Anytown..."?
- raesene9 4y ago
  AFAIK no, as in there's no "Binance headquarters" you can go to, or write to... The company is apparently registered in the Cayman Islands, but it's pretty easy to register a company there without operations.
  - logifail 4y ago
    > The company is apparently registered in the Cayman Islands If that's true why would they be coy about it? There are loads of jurisdictions where every single company invoice has to state the company's registration details (registered number and registered address).
    - raesene9 4y ago
      A company being registered somewhere is no more than a PO Box and some paperwork. My guess about why Binance avoids having a headquarters location would be trying to reduce the risk of regulators and tax authorities paying a lot more attention to them.
      - 4y ago

anothernewdude 4y ago

- They are leveraged - There will be a run on them as trust in Crypto is at an all time low - Even a well run bank will struggle in this situation. Binance is not that.

bambax 4y ago

Yes. Binance cannot be "fucked" by any meaning of the word. CZ claim they store customers' assets one to one. Either this is true, and they're safe, or it's not true, and they're engaging in the same fraud as FTX. But if they're a fraud, they won't be "fucked" until 1/ they're exposed (some evidence of the fraud is posted somewhere), and 2/ people believe it, and there's a run, and they collapse because of the fraud -- since without the fraud, a run should not cause a collapse. A simple rise in withdrawals isn't enough to announce their demise.

soco 4y ago
By this definition, they cannot be "fucked" in any situation - only their customers could get "fucked".
- bambax 4y ago
  Yeah my comment is unclear. I mean they can't be presently fucked. They may become fucked in the future, if it turns out they were engaging in fraud. But for that to happen, some kind of evidence should be provided, and none has shown up yet.