5 ms·

Why do they think this won't increase the allure of cigarettes in general? Feels like prohibition has always been a questionable idea, regardless of what its ta

by CM30 4y ago

Why do they think this won't increase the allure of cigarettes in general? Feels like prohibition has always been a questionable idea, regardless of what its target is, and it has pretty much never worked as expected. It's especially awkward given that people's interest in tobacco has already fallen to new lows without it (the article suggests only 8% of the adult population smokes now), so it feels like it could be completely counterproductive, while doing nothing could have caused interest to crash even more.

blackoil 4y ago
> prohibition has always been a questionable idea Any data on it having counter effect on the actual consumption and prevelance? I believe are the negatives were secondary but it was effective in primary goals.
- hedora 4y ago
  When the US raised the drinking age from 18 to 21, binge drinking in college skyrocketed. Alcohol producers are now some of the staunchest defenders of our current drinking age.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - worik 4y ago
    > Alcohol producers are now some of the staunchest defenders of our current drinking age Is that true? That is astounding. I am inclined not to believe it
  - vkou 4y ago
    The problem here seems cultural, not legal. College dorms and frathouses seem like the perfect climate for creating a culture of binge-drinking. 1. A bunch of dumb, young adults. 2. Sent away from home to live together, with only their peers for role models. 3. With few responsibilities, and not enough schoolwork to do to keep themselves busy. I'm not sure why anyone would expect any outcome that didn't include way too many drugs and way too much partying. The drinking age isn't a problem, that set of inputs would produce the exact same thing, whether it was 18, 19, or 35. If you actually want to solve college binge drinking, kill the frat life, close down all the dorms for local students, and have them commute to school.
Eisenstein 4y ago
Smoking cigarettes has always been something that was started pretty young. It is an outlier who starts smoking after the age of 18. This law will affect total smoking in the population only as much as it can affect the ability of minors to obtain cigarettes. By making it a black market, this may backfire, since it is easier for an underage person to purchase something illegally from an illegal supplier than it is for an underage person to purchase something illegally from a legal supplier. However since NZ is an island nation they may be able to pull this off since smuggling in cigarettes may not be lucrative enough compared to something like cocaine or heroin. Of course the penalties would have to be more than a slap on the wrist for that to be the case.
- mistermann 4y ago
  Another way it can backfire is that this is yet another reason for many people who already have negative sentiments toward government overreach and government in general to be angry. I would be more than a little shocked if many of the people who participated in the January 6 hoedown didn't have a whole laundry list of grievances, imagined or otherwise, that contributed to their motivation to show up there that day.
Supermancho 4y ago
Prohibition has worked for a very long time to control the widespread use of many materials, chemicals, and practices (ie building codes) across the world. Alcohol is relatively simple to create and store, and to hide consumption. Alcohol is effective at almost any quality, that doesn't immediately kill you. Cigarettes are a very different beast from alcohol. Unlike marijuana, given the data on second-hand smoke, many people would be eager to report use of cigarettes wherever it was found. Growing the tobacco is another big issue for producers. I don't believe there's a compelling set of reasons indicating cigarette prohibition would be ineffective. In 2 generations, I'm not sure why anyone would be making cigarettes...when they could make alcohol easier.
- mmsimanga 4y ago
  South Africa has high taxes on cigarettes making cigarettes relatively expensive. The result is black market of unregistered cigarette brands. A good number come across illegally from neighbouring countries. Perhaps NZ being an island nation might be able to control illegal imports better.
  - Supermancho 4y ago
    > The result is black market of unregistered cigarette brands. A good number come across illegally from neighbouring countries. Perhaps NZ being an island nation might be able to control illegal imports better. This is in the short term. This is also a slightly different situation, which is beyond the land-access. High taxes are an implicit indication it's still ok and for the wealthy, making it a status symbol. Banning cigarettes in NZ will put pressure on future generations to not start at all. This will not be 100% effective, granted for the next generation. From a cost-benefit perspective, if you are going to bring in black market products, why not get people started on meth? Meth has become quite prevalent in much of africa and partly because it's cheap.

by CM30 4y ago

blackoil 4y ago

> prohibition has always been a questionable idea Any data on it having counter effect on the actual consumption and prevelance? I believe are the negatives were secondary but it was effective in primary goals.

hedora 4y ago
When the US raised the drinking age from 18 to 21, binge drinking in college skyrocketed. Alcohol producers are now some of the staunchest defenders of our current drinking age.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- worik 4y ago
  > Alcohol producers are now some of the staunchest defenders of our current drinking age Is that true? That is astounding. I am inclined not to believe it
- vkou 4y ago
  The problem here seems cultural, not legal. College dorms and frathouses seem like the perfect climate for creating a culture of binge-drinking. 1. A bunch of dumb, young adults. 2. Sent away from home to live together, with only their peers for role models. 3. With few responsibilities, and not enough schoolwork to do to keep themselves busy. I'm not sure why anyone would expect any outcome that didn't include way too many drugs and way too much partying. The drinking age isn't a problem, that set of inputs would produce the exact same thing, whether it was 18, 19, or 35. If you actually want to solve college binge drinking, kill the frat life, close down all the dorms for local students, and have them commute to school.

Eisenstein 4y ago

Smoking cigarettes has always been something that was started pretty young. It is an outlier who starts smoking after the age of 18. This law will affect total smoking in the population only as much as it can affect the ability of minors to obtain cigarettes. By making it a black market, this may backfire, since it is easier for an underage person to purchase something illegally from an illegal supplier than it is for an underage person to purchase something illegally from a legal supplier. However since NZ is an island nation they may be able to pull this off since smuggling in cigarettes may not be lucrative enough compared to something like cocaine or heroin. Of course the penalties would have to be more than a slap on the wrist for that to be the case.

mistermann 4y ago
Another way it can backfire is that this is yet another reason for many people who already have negative sentiments toward government overreach and government in general to be angry. I would be more than a little shocked if many of the people who participated in the January 6 hoedown didn't have a whole laundry list of grievances, imagined or otherwise, that contributed to their motivation to show up there that day.

Supermancho 4y ago

Prohibition has worked for a very long time to control the widespread use of many materials, chemicals, and practices (ie building codes) across the world. Alcohol is relatively simple to create and store, and to hide consumption. Alcohol is effective at almost any quality, that doesn't immediately kill you. Cigarettes are a very different beast from alcohol. Unlike marijuana, given the data on second-hand smoke, many people would be eager to report use of cigarettes wherever it was found. Growing the tobacco is another big issue for producers. I don't believe there's a compelling set of reasons indicating cigarette prohibition would be ineffective. In 2 generations, I'm not sure why anyone would be making cigarettes...when they could make alcohol easier.

mmsimanga 4y ago
South Africa has high taxes on cigarettes making cigarettes relatively expensive. The result is black market of unregistered cigarette brands. A good number come across illegally from neighbouring countries. Perhaps NZ being an island nation might be able to control illegal imports better.
- Supermancho 4y ago
  > The result is black market of unregistered cigarette brands. A good number come across illegally from neighbouring countries. Perhaps NZ being an island nation might be able to control illegal imports better. This is in the short term. This is also a slightly different situation, which is beyond the land-access. High taxes are an implicit indication it's still ok and for the wealthy, making it a status symbol. Banning cigarettes in NZ will put pressure on future generations to not start at all. This will not be 100% effective, granted for the next generation. From a cost-benefit perspective, if you are going to bring in black market products, why not get people started on meth? Meth has become quite prevalent in much of africa and partly because it's cheap.