The comparison to banking/consulting is bad for a few of reasons: 1. Analysts and consultants make very decent livings. Spending your mid 20s as a banking anal

The comparison to banking/consulting is bad for a few of reasons: 1. Analysts and consultants make very decent livings. Spending your mid 20s as a banking analyst/associate is a very nice life for someone in their 20s. PhD programs barely pay a living wage, and in large cities simply don't pay a living wage. 2. When deciding whether a lottery is worth playing, you are looking at both probabilities and outcomes. You covered the probability aspect well -- that's the similarity between banking and professoring. The massive difference between the two is in the outcome. Banking higher ups have won a lottery that is worth winning. Professors, on the other hand, max out just above FAANG entry-level wages. Even then, it's only after decade+ of top-decile performance. 3. You might counter #2 with things like "work-life balance", "lifestyle job", "job security", and so on. None of these are true anymore. 3a. Universities are run by middle managers who are mostly less competent and more petty than their private sector counter-parts. 3b. Moreover, tenure doesn't mean anything. At this point, it's nothing more than a gentleman's agreement with an MBA. I have literally zero doubt that over the next 20 years every single university in the US will go through a round of layoffs that target tenured faculty, and will do so without declaring financial exigency. This already happened at a lot of places during COVID, despite massive bailouts and even at places that increased enrollment without increasing spending ex-headcount. If you got into academic for the stability 30 years ago, your bet was pretty good. These days you'd have to be an idiot or have your head buried under a hundred feet of sand to make the same bet. "Tenure" now is nothing more than "continued expectation of future employment"; i.e., it's the only "normal" job in an industrial sector (edu) where the majority of employment contracts are not only at-will but even come with with your dismissal date attached (post-docs and even phd students). Can you imagine working at a software company but they tell you up-front they will have to fire you in 3 years? And also only pay $55K? LOL. When push comes to shove, in most modern faculty constracts, there isn't that much of a substantive difference between "tenure" and "at-will". 4. The glide-path out of a STEM PhD is usually at least as lucrative than out of an unsuccessful analyst position, but the scars of poverty make it feel like an insanely lucky success. I've seen 32 year olds with Mathematics PhDs cry because they get a job doing nothing related to their PhD but that pays the same amount that their students are making at their first job out of undergraduate. So, I think a PhD in a technical subject can still make sense, but there's no rational reason to be an R1 faculty member outside of a teaching track. Well, except one: "massive ego that can't play well enough with others to hack it in the private sector". And that's certainly who you'll find yourself surrounded by if you choose that route.