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I said the same thing after the wild times in 2017. Frankly I don't think anyone actually knows.

rippercushions 4y ago
2021 saw Hollywood A-listers pitching crypto in Super Bowl ads. It's going to take a long, long time for crypto mania to reach a similar peak again.
- nwiswell 4y ago
  What strikes me as odd is that Bitcoin only topped out at ~3x what it did in 2017. How much do Super Bowl ads actually matter? Is frivolous advertising the ultimate metric for financial froth? Or are ads like that just a symptom of macroeconomic conditions? Is it an accident that conditions were accommodative in 2017, but even moreso in 2021? I think macroeconomics are more likely to determine meme-asset prices in the coming years than any other factor. If there's more monetary tightening ahead it's gonna be tough times for crypto, but I'm not yet convinced that we've separated from zero-rate policies for the long haul. There's some signs that inflation may not be so tenacious and that a recession is on the way, which could cause another rate U-turn pretty quick. Recessions are very bad news for risk assets (and doubly so for meme-assets, presumably), but recessions aren't nearly as sticky as monetary policy tends to be. So I can certainly see a future where in late 2024 we have a strengthening/recovering economy, very accommodative monetary policy, and... another block halving. Plus Bitcoin is a global asset, so there's the question on what goes on at a global macro level as well. On the other hand, Bitcoin retains a much smaller share of the total crypto market value than it has historically. Since Bitcoin is... "slightly less disreputable" than other cryptocurrencies... that suggests that the speculators have not yet rotated out of the riskiest crypto assets. Anyway: we will see. I don't trust anyone who is confident they know what's coming next.
- mejutoco 4y ago
  I was a bit surprised to see crypto.com ads in Qatar football world cup these weeks.
  - Hamuko 4y ago
    I've so far been assuming that these deals were paid out long before the current crash.

2021 saw Hollywood A-listers pitching crypto in Super Bowl ads. It's going to take a long, long time for crypto mania to reach a similar peak again.

nwiswell 4y ago
What strikes me as odd is that Bitcoin only topped out at ~3x what it did in 2017. How much do Super Bowl ads actually matter? Is frivolous advertising the ultimate metric for financial froth? Or are ads like that just a symptom of macroeconomic conditions? Is it an accident that conditions were accommodative in 2017, but even moreso in 2021? I think macroeconomics are more likely to determine meme-asset prices in the coming years than any other factor. If there's more monetary tightening ahead it's gonna be tough times for crypto, but I'm not yet convinced that we've separated from zero-rate policies for the long haul. There's some signs that inflation may not be so tenacious and that a recession is on the way, which could cause another rate U-turn pretty quick. Recessions are very bad news for risk assets (and doubly so for meme-assets, presumably), but recessions aren't nearly as sticky as monetary policy tends to be. So I can certainly see a future where in late 2024 we have a strengthening/recovering economy, very accommodative monetary policy, and... another block halving. Plus Bitcoin is a global asset, so there's the question on what goes on at a global macro level as well. On the other hand, Bitcoin retains a much smaller share of the total crypto market value than it has historically. Since Bitcoin is... "slightly less disreputable" than other cryptocurrencies... that suggests that the speculators have not yet rotated out of the riskiest crypto assets. Anyway: we will see. I don't trust anyone who is confident they know what's coming next.
mejutoco 4y ago
I was a bit surprised to see crypto.com ads in Qatar football world cup these weeks.
- Hamuko 4y ago
  I've so far been assuming that these deals were paid out long before the current crash.