5 ms·

>$2k Rolex I thought the cheapest Rolex is substantially more expensive. Am I wrong?

steveBK123 4y ago
Fair point. My numbers are probably off on everything now. Before the 2020s era inflation you could definitely pick up a mens one used for $2k, like a Datejust model for example. Likewise a $70k car is neither particularly rare or exotic now with how much the average car price has been pushed up by big trucks and EVs.
- doubled112 4y ago
  It's pretty easy to add a few options and pay $70K or more for a Ford F-150 these days. At least here in Canada. People love their pickup trucks.
  - steveBK123 4y ago
    It's truly crazy to me how quickly pricing has ramped up especially in EVs. Imagine telling someone 10 years ago that people would line up to buy a $60k Hyundai EV, or $80k on a luxury Hyundai sub-brand EV? The Tesla Model 3/Y range can easily run up above $70k with options now, and the bigger Tesla Model S/X is a six-figures vehicle! Likewise, gas powered BMWs seem to have disappeared in the $30-40k range and pretty quickly get into the $50k+ range.
    - coryrc 4y ago
      I figure GP's talking about gas trucks. We're talking working class people spending over a year's gross income on a truck, when in the past they'd be buying a "work truck" with a single bench seat, no A/C, and an AM radio.
      - ehnto 4y ago
        I don't want to make assumptions, but it's my understanding that they're usually on finance which means they're paying much more than sticker price. I certainly don't know many middle class people with 70k in savings to throw around, either everyone is doing a lot better than they otherwise expose or there's easy money on the table. I think we'll see price corrections downward for cars over the next 5 years, as interest rates change. I've asked a handful of importers while I try and source a car from Japan, with the Japanese import market being hyper inflated. They've all suggested that during the pandemic, financed purchases were making up the majority of their sales. I imagine that's set to change as interest rates change and loans get harder to acquire.
        doubled112 4y ago
        Of course people are financing them. Vehicles are expensive. I believe the average used car price is over $40K now here. Even an average used car was about $20K. Let's stick to the truck, though. F-150s are everywhere. If I head to the Ford Canada website, an F-150 XL (the cheap one) is $39K before you get started. A Platinum brings you up to $87K, and the Limited brings you up to $98K. The website is definitely NOT including taxes, licensing fees, financing fees, interest, etc. I couldn't imagine paying that for a work truck. The trades are fairly well payed, but to that extent?
        ehnto 4y ago
        I can't see the logic in it either, by the time they're done paying off a typical loan even for the $87k variant, you would be up into triple figures for it. It could have cost as much as some people's homes.
        nradov 4y ago
        The average new car transaction price is currently $48K. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-september-2022/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-september...
        tomrod 4y ago
  - rdtwo 4y ago
    Isn’t the average price of a F150 is like 55-60k so that’s pretty damn close. An F250 can easily run over 100
- shakow 4y ago
  > Likewise a $70k car is neither particularly rare or exotic Just for the sake of nitpicking, but going back to the BMW example, you could get a well-optioned Z4 in this range, which I would argue is rather exotic and will make heads turn, if not very expensive.
  - steveBK123 4y ago
    You CAN get something rare/exotic for $70k these days. However you can get a lot of pretty surprisingly run of the mill vehicles at that price range as well, especially for at truck or EV. Like a Ford F-150, Tesla Model 3/Y, entry level Mercedes or BMW electric car, even a Ford Mach E, etc. The slowing inflation, high interest rates and collapse of the economy in the coming 6-18 months will probably wind some of that back.
- billjings 4y ago
  "2020s era inflation" started just this year. And it's, what, 11%?
  - steveBK123 4y ago
    Well its nearly 2023, and we have had 10%-ish inflation going on about 2 years. In specific areas such as cars, you had complete dislocations. For example used cars which normally depreciate 15-20%/year, instead inflated about 15%/year for 2 years. Over the summer I traded in a 4 year old car at the end of its warranty of 85% of what I paid for it new. I probably could have sold private party and haggled harder to get closer to 90%+ Normally 85% is what you can expect to sell your car for right after you drive it off the lot on your second day of ownership. This was a knock on effect of new car production shortages, and pent up demand from low 2020 sales and people having a lot of cash on hand. Related to this you had dealers adding market (ADM) on not even luxury/exotic vehicles of $10-15k in some areas. So never mind not being able to negotiate a few $1000 off, people were paying sticker+$15k for new vehicles for the privilege of being able to buy one. And this was on top of the sticker prices ticking up over the course of the pandemic and related inflation. So no, for many things, it was not "just a year of 11% inflation".
    - billjings 4y ago
      > Well its nearly 2023, and we have had 10%-ish inflation going on about 2 years. Are you not in the US? We haven't even had 10% inflation for all of the past year.
      - steveBK123 4y ago
        Similarly for watches, luxury watches basically doubled during the pandemic in pricing before crashing from their springtime 2022 peak. Still +40% versus pre-pandemic levels. https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex
      - steveBK123 4y ago
        Particularly for cars, and especially used cars.. inflation was >10% for >1 year, before turning over ~3-4 months ago. https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.png https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUs...
- perardi 4y ago
  I’m…old now? Old enough to be shocked how much car prices have gone up. And I follow the industry. Why, back in my day, you could get a “stripper” model of a truck (my dad’s term for the most-basic-possible model with crank windows and a stick shift) for like $15,000. Now? https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/ https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/ Good luck getting off the lot for less than $40,000 for a full-size truck. …though to give Ford some credit here: https://www.ford.com/trucks/maverick/ https://www.ford.com/trucks/maverick/ They do still sell a truly cheap-and-cheerful truck. Will it tow much? No. Is it going to take you to the bottom of the Grand Canyon or whatever off-road macho fantasy? No. Will it get several bags of mulch back from Home Depot? Absolutely—which is what people actually use trucks for. (If that.)
pclmulqdq 4y ago
New Rolex watches are more expensive (around $6k I think), but the Rolex to happy meal ratio is lower than it has ever been.

Fair point. My numbers are probably off on everything now. Before the 2020s era inflation you could definitely pick up a mens one used for $2k, like a Datejust model for example. Likewise a $70k car is neither particularly rare or exotic now with how much the average car price has been pushed up by big trucks and EVs.

doubled112 4y ago
It's pretty easy to add a few options and pay $70K or more for a Ford F-150 these days. At least here in Canada. People love their pickup trucks.
- steveBK123 4y ago
  It's truly crazy to me how quickly pricing has ramped up especially in EVs. Imagine telling someone 10 years ago that people would line up to buy a $60k Hyundai EV, or $80k on a luxury Hyundai sub-brand EV? The Tesla Model 3/Y range can easily run up above $70k with options now, and the bigger Tesla Model S/X is a six-figures vehicle! Likewise, gas powered BMWs seem to have disappeared in the $30-40k range and pretty quickly get into the $50k+ range.
  - coryrc 4y ago
    I figure GP's talking about gas trucks. We're talking working class people spending over a year's gross income on a truck, when in the past they'd be buying a "work truck" with a single bench seat, no A/C, and an AM radio.
    - ehnto 4y ago
      I don't want to make assumptions, but it's my understanding that they're usually on finance which means they're paying much more than sticker price. I certainly don't know many middle class people with 70k in savings to throw around, either everyone is doing a lot better than they otherwise expose or there's easy money on the table. I think we'll see price corrections downward for cars over the next 5 years, as interest rates change. I've asked a handful of importers while I try and source a car from Japan, with the Japanese import market being hyper inflated. They've all suggested that during the pandemic, financed purchases were making up the majority of their sales. I imagine that's set to change as interest rates change and loans get harder to acquire.
      - doubled112 4y ago
        Of course people are financing them. Vehicles are expensive. I believe the average used car price is over $40K now here. Even an average used car was about $20K. Let's stick to the truck, though. F-150s are everywhere. If I head to the Ford Canada website, an F-150 XL (the cheap one) is $39K before you get started. A Platinum brings you up to $87K, and the Limited brings you up to $98K. The website is definitely NOT including taxes, licensing fees, financing fees, interest, etc. I couldn't imagine paying that for a work truck. The trades are fairly well payed, but to that extent?
        ehnto 4y ago
        I can't see the logic in it either, by the time they're done paying off a typical loan even for the $87k variant, you would be up into triple figures for it. It could have cost as much as some people's homes.
        nradov 4y ago
        The average new car transaction price is currently $48K. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-september-2022/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-september...
        tomrod 4y ago
- rdtwo 4y ago
  Isn’t the average price of a F150 is like 55-60k so that’s pretty damn close. An F250 can easily run over 100
shakow 4y ago
> Likewise a $70k car is neither particularly rare or exotic Just for the sake of nitpicking, but going back to the BMW example, you could get a well-optioned Z4 in this range, which I would argue is rather exotic and will make heads turn, if not very expensive.
- steveBK123 4y ago
  You CAN get something rare/exotic for $70k these days. However you can get a lot of pretty surprisingly run of the mill vehicles at that price range as well, especially for at truck or EV. Like a Ford F-150, Tesla Model 3/Y, entry level Mercedes or BMW electric car, even a Ford Mach E, etc. The slowing inflation, high interest rates and collapse of the economy in the coming 6-18 months will probably wind some of that back.
billjings 4y ago
"2020s era inflation" started just this year. And it's, what, 11%?
- steveBK123 4y ago
  Well its nearly 2023, and we have had 10%-ish inflation going on about 2 years. In specific areas such as cars, you had complete dislocations. For example used cars which normally depreciate 15-20%/year, instead inflated about 15%/year for 2 years. Over the summer I traded in a 4 year old car at the end of its warranty of 85% of what I paid for it new. I probably could have sold private party and haggled harder to get closer to 90%+ Normally 85% is what you can expect to sell your car for right after you drive it off the lot on your second day of ownership. This was a knock on effect of new car production shortages, and pent up demand from low 2020 sales and people having a lot of cash on hand. Related to this you had dealers adding market (ADM) on not even luxury/exotic vehicles of $10-15k in some areas. So never mind not being able to negotiate a few $1000 off, people were paying sticker+$15k for new vehicles for the privilege of being able to buy one. And this was on top of the sticker prices ticking up over the course of the pandemic and related inflation. So no, for many things, it was not "just a year of 11% inflation".
  - billjings 4y ago
    > Well its nearly 2023, and we have had 10%-ish inflation going on about 2 years. Are you not in the US? We haven't even had 10% inflation for all of the past year.
    - steveBK123 4y ago
      Similarly for watches, luxury watches basically doubled during the pandemic in pricing before crashing from their springtime 2022 peak. Still +40% versus pre-pandemic levels. https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_index/rolex
    - steveBK123 4y ago
      Particularly for cars, and especially used cars.. inflation was >10% for >1 year, before turning over ~3-4 months ago. https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUsedVehicleValueIndex-LineGraph.png https://publish.manheim.com/content/dam/consulting/ManheimUs...
perardi 4y ago
I’m…old now? Old enough to be shocked how much car prices have gone up. And I follow the industry. Why, back in my day, you could get a “stripper” model of a truck (my dad’s term for the most-basic-possible model with crank windows and a stick shift) for like $15,000. Now? https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/ https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/ Good luck getting off the lot for less than $40,000 for a full-size truck. …though to give Ford some credit here: https://www.ford.com/trucks/maverick/ https://www.ford.com/trucks/maverick/ They do still sell a truly cheap-and-cheerful truck. Will it tow much? No. Is it going to take you to the bottom of the Grand Canyon or whatever off-road macho fantasy? No. Will it get several bags of mulch back from Home Depot? Absolutely—which is what people actually use trucks for. (If that.)

pclmulqdq 4y ago

New Rolex watches are more expensive (around $6k I think), but the Rolex to happy meal ratio is lower than it has ever been.