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> Does anyone have an intelligent strategy for investing in a world with low birth rates and an aging population? If you read the latest Charles Goodhart's boo

by chewz 4y ago

> Does anyone have an intelligent strategy for investing in a world with low birth rates and an aging population? If you read the latest Charles Goodhart's book ageing population would bring period of permanent high inflation. And during high inflation periods trend following (macro) strategies work well [I don't have a link to the paper at the moment]... So this should be rather simple... Japan seems to be an exception to the rule, there are probably other factors that resulted in deflation during falling population era [I am fan of Richard C. Koo here - 2]. However it is not established yet - there is active discussion going on the topic - falling populations vs inflation/deflation. It is quite interesting actually. Try Dimitri Kofinas's discussion with Charles Goodhart in this podcast [3] if you can spare an hour... [1] https://www.amazon.com/Great-Demographic-Reversal-Societies-Inequality/dp/3030426564 https://www.amazon.com/Great-Demographic-Reversal-Societies-... [2] https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Recession/dp/0470824948 https://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Lessons-Rec... [3] https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/charles-goodhart-demographics-inflation/ https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/charles-goodhart-demographi...

iklj 4y ago
Investing in grocery store stocks would seem safe?
imtringued 4y ago
>If you read the latest Charles Goodhart's book ageing population would bring period of permanent high inflation. That is illogical. Aging populations save more because the money needs to last throughout retirement and these old people's bodies are no longer in a state where they can enjoy spending their money. Old people also have already fulfilled most of their wishes and have gotten used to their specific standard of living. A young society of under 20 year olds is more likely to cause inflation because every child is a pure consumer that does not produce what they consume for the first 18 years of their life. So the demand for labor is relatively high.
- chewz 4y ago
  > That is illogical. Perhaps it would be wiser to read Goodhart's argument first. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Goodhart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Goodhart

by chewz 4y ago

iklj 4y ago

Investing in grocery store stocks would seem safe?

imtringued 4y ago

>If you read the latest Charles Goodhart's book ageing population would bring period of permanent high inflation. That is illogical. Aging populations save more because the money needs to last throughout retirement and these old people's bodies are no longer in a state where they can enjoy spending their money. Old people also have already fulfilled most of their wishes and have gotten used to their specific standard of living. A young society of under 20 year olds is more likely to cause inflation because every child is a pure consumer that does not produce what they consume for the first 18 years of their life. So the demand for labor is relatively high.

chewz 4y ago
> That is illogical. Perhaps it would be wiser to read Goodhart's argument first. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Goodhart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Goodhart