3 ms·

Are you sure you aren't looking at the bottom of an S curve? Extrapolation is a dangerous thing to engage in, particularly from the nascent forms of a technolo

Are you sure you aren't looking at the bottom of an S curve? Extrapolation is a dangerous thing to engage in, particularly from the nascent forms of a technology. Many technologies hit walls early on in their lives and are discovered to be infeasible or not useful. Also, differentiating an exponential from even a low-order polynomial is not trivial at all given only a few points (we have <10) and a lot of noise. However, the trajectory of each is markedly different when you extrapolate.

marcosdumay 4y ago
Of course it's the bottom of an S curve. Anybody that talks about exponential growth on the real world is talking about the bottom of an S curve. What is your point? That the curve will inflect soon? Also, about the "differentiating an exponential from even a low-order polynomial is not trivial at all given only a few points" part. Well, if you want to propose that the curve is a low-order superlinear polynomial, the onus is on you to propose a mechanism or show some analysis. That's not a very ordinary way for things to behave on practice.