4 ms·

This is a troll story. He talks a lot about a strong currency, about a trade surplus, and some other numbers that, if GDP is meaningless, then these numbers ar

This is a troll story. He talks a lot about a strong currency, about a trade surplus, and some other numbers that, if GDP is meaningless, then these numbers are meaningless squared. Impressive trade numbers could be a sign that Japan is undervaluing consuming its own goods, as people lately have been saying about Germany. Or these numbers could be a sign of a number of other things. They don't really tell us much, by themselves; they need to be interpreted in some context. He tells us the true fact that Japan's growth has been stagnant for a long time, but the author claims despite this Japan has some growth in real prosperity, an increase in living standards... then never tells us how. It's a bunch of talk and bluster with some useless numbers thrown in that never answer the crucial question of, if Japan really is doing better, how real standards of living have increased for the Japanese. Furthermore, the concluding lines about a $5000 offer for invitees to "debate" him smells trollish, as well as his shameless plug of his blog.

mc32 15y ago
Yeah, this Fingleton guy, he seems to like being an antagonist. Whereas even Japanese manufacturers themselves fear a "hollowing out" of Japanese manufacturing, due in part to decreasing domestic demand and also Yen valuation[1], he says there is little to fear and presents some trade numbers to support his assertion. [1] http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStory_712426.html http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStor... "'The yen's historic rise, coupled with catch-ups by emerging nations, has caused a crisis of unprecedented industrial hollowing-out,' Yoshihiko Noda told lawmakers in his first major policy speech." and http://academic.csuohio.edu/makelaa/history/courses/his373/NYTFear.htm http://academic.csuohio.edu/makelaa/history/courses/his373/N... "A survey last summer for the financial newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun found that half of Japan's largest companies planned to increase production overseas — and 71 percent of those planned to do it in China. At the same time, in a second poll, 65 percent of people surveyed believed that imports from China threatened the Japanese economy."
- joe_the_user 15y ago
  Yes, a well NYTime article on the effects of the lost decade: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/business/worldbusiness/22japan.html?_r=1&ref=business http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/business/worldbusiness/22j... Quote: "And the nation is losing interest in cars; sales have fallen by half since 1990." Another article about the Japanese youth sleeping in Internet cafes: http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/05/07/us-japan-cyberhome-idUST34112620070507 http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/05/07/us-japan-cyberhome... "A by-product of the economic crisis that hit Japan and its lifelong employment guarantees in the 1990s, freeters drift between odd jobs. "Earning around 1,000 yen ($8) per hour, they often struggle to pay the rent in Tokyo, one of the most expensive cities in the world where a modest 30 square meter (320 square foot) flat in a central location can easily cost 150,000 yen ($1,250) a month."
  - minikomi 15y ago
    150,000 yen is pretty high end for an apartment. I live in a modest 2 room flat in Shibuya for half that.
  - mahyarm 15y ago
    Thats the rent in SF and the peninsula for a flat that size, and only a studio with no bedroom. :/
drumdance 15y ago
James Fallows may be wrong, but he's certainly not a troll. He's been writing about these issues for at least 25 years. I've been reading him for twenty of them. He's one of my favorite writers, so I'm biased a bit, but he's been doing a lot of good journalism about a lot of topics (not just Japan) for a long time. Plus, he's excellent about responding to email. Send him a note with your comment and I guarantee you'll get a respectful reply.
- jessriedel 15y ago
  Maybe I'm confused, but this is written by Eamonn Fingleton, not James Fallows. I see Fallows' picture at the top, but I don't know how he's connected.
  - WildUtah 15y ago
    Fallows invites guest columnists when he's on vacation and when he wants to share an interesting point of view. The only notice is often the changed byline.
  - drumdance 15y ago
    I stand corrected. Fallows has written a lot about Japan and did live there in the 80s and 90s. He also lived in China for a few years this century. He famously wrote an article in the early 90s arguing the US was on the wrong track and should be more like Japan. So I assumed this was from him as well. My bad.
- jessriedel 15y ago
  Maybe I'm confused, but this is written by Eamonn Fingleton, not James Fallows. I see Fallows' picture at the top, but I don't know how he's connected.
nandemo 15y ago
> It's a bunch of talk and bluster with some useless numbers thrown in that never answer the crucial question of, if Japan really is doing better, how real standards of living have increased for the Japanese. We could start by comparing the average household income in 1991 and 2011, in 2011 yens. However, that doesn't account for certain increases in the standard of living that can't be captured by the usual inflation indices: better cars, computers, cell phones, cheaper international travel, etc.
- ido 15y ago
  However, that doesn't account for certain increases in the standard of living that can't be captured by the usual inflation indices: better cars, computers, cell phones, cheaper international travel, etc. But those aren't Japan-specific, are they? "Quality of life" is always relative to the rest of the world.
  - fauigerzigerk 15y ago
    I'm not sure whether there is something Japan specific or not, because the way in which inflation is measured differs in rather peculiar ways between countries. E.g, the BLS uses something called hedonic adjustment to account for changes in the quality of goods over time (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpihqaqanda.htm#Question_2 http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpihqaqanda.htm#Question_2). So, if vendors of mobile devices keep throwing in new functionality for the same price, that will reduce reported CPI numbers. This is obviously fraught with all sorts of difficulties (and causes lots of conspiracy theories). I have no idea how Japan does it, but these things have a great effect on the relationship between reported and perceived standard of living.
fauigerzigerk 15y ago
Comparing GDP without accounting for changing population sizes is indeed meaningless. Using GDP per person and median disposable income would tell us something.

mc32 15y ago

Yeah, this Fingleton guy, he seems to like being an antagonist. Whereas even Japanese manufacturers themselves fear a "hollowing out" of Japanese manufacturing, due in part to decreasing domestic demand and also Yen valuation[1], he says there is little to fear and presents some trade numbers to support his assertion. [1] http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStory_712426.html http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStor... "'The yen's historic rise, coupled with catch-ups by emerging nations, has caused a crisis of unprecedented industrial hollowing-out,' Yoshihiko Noda told lawmakers in his first major policy speech." and http://academic.csuohio.edu/makelaa/history/courses/his373/NYTFear.htm http://academic.csuohio.edu/makelaa/history/courses/his373/N... "A survey last summer for the financial newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun found that half of Japan's largest companies planned to increase production overseas — and 71 percent of those planned to do it in China. At the same time, in a second poll, 65 percent of people surveyed believed that imports from China threatened the Japanese economy."

joe_the_user 15y ago
Yes, a well NYTime article on the effects of the lost decade: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/business/worldbusiness/22japan.html?_r=1&ref=business http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/business/worldbusiness/22j... Quote: "And the nation is losing interest in cars; sales have fallen by half since 1990." Another article about the Japanese youth sleeping in Internet cafes: http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/05/07/us-japan-cyberhome-idUST34112620070507 http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/05/07/us-japan-cyberhome... "A by-product of the economic crisis that hit Japan and its lifelong employment guarantees in the 1990s, freeters drift between odd jobs. "Earning around 1,000 yen ($8) per hour, they often struggle to pay the rent in Tokyo, one of the most expensive cities in the world where a modest 30 square meter (320 square foot) flat in a central location can easily cost 150,000 yen ($1,250) a month."
- minikomi 15y ago
  150,000 yen is pretty high end for an apartment. I live in a modest 2 room flat in Shibuya for half that.
- mahyarm 15y ago
  Thats the rent in SF and the peninsula for a flat that size, and only a studio with no bedroom. :/

drumdance 15y ago

James Fallows may be wrong, but he's certainly not a troll. He's been writing about these issues for at least 25 years. I've been reading him for twenty of them. He's one of my favorite writers, so I'm biased a bit, but he's been doing a lot of good journalism about a lot of topics (not just Japan) for a long time. Plus, he's excellent about responding to email. Send him a note with your comment and I guarantee you'll get a respectful reply.

jessriedel 15y ago
Maybe I'm confused, but this is written by Eamonn Fingleton, not James Fallows. I see Fallows' picture at the top, but I don't know how he's connected.
- WildUtah 15y ago
  Fallows invites guest columnists when he's on vacation and when he wants to share an interesting point of view. The only notice is often the changed byline.
- drumdance 15y ago
  I stand corrected. Fallows has written a lot about Japan and did live there in the 80s and 90s. He also lived in China for a few years this century. He famously wrote an article in the early 90s arguing the US was on the wrong track and should be more like Japan. So I assumed this was from him as well. My bad.
jessriedel 15y ago
Maybe I'm confused, but this is written by Eamonn Fingleton, not James Fallows. I see Fallows' picture at the top, but I don't know how he's connected.

nandemo 15y ago

> It's a bunch of talk and bluster with some useless numbers thrown in that never answer the crucial question of, if Japan really is doing better, how real standards of living have increased for the Japanese. We could start by comparing the average household income in 1991 and 2011, in 2011 yens. However, that doesn't account for certain increases in the standard of living that can't be captured by the usual inflation indices: better cars, computers, cell phones, cheaper international travel, etc.

ido 15y ago
However, that doesn't account for certain increases in the standard of living that can't be captured by the usual inflation indices: better cars, computers, cell phones, cheaper international travel, etc. But those aren't Japan-specific, are they? "Quality of life" is always relative to the rest of the world.
- fauigerzigerk 15y ago
  I'm not sure whether there is something Japan specific or not, because the way in which inflation is measured differs in rather peculiar ways between countries. E.g, the BLS uses something called hedonic adjustment to account for changes in the quality of goods over time (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpihqaqanda.htm#Question_2 http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpihqaqanda.htm#Question_2). So, if vendors of mobile devices keep throwing in new functionality for the same price, that will reduce reported CPI numbers. This is obviously fraught with all sorts of difficulties (and causes lots of conspiracy theories). I have no idea how Japan does it, but these things have a great effect on the relationship between reported and perceived standard of living.

fauigerzigerk 15y ago

Comparing GDP without accounting for changing population sizes is indeed meaningless. Using GDP per person and median disposable income would tell us something.