5 ms·

I was thinking about ipv6 the other day. I concluded in my head that adoption was just around 5-10%. Luckily I went to verify that with statistics. https://w

I was thinking about ipv6 the other day. I concluded in my head that adoption was just around 5-10%. Luckily I went to verify that with statistics. https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html While price of ipv4 addresses are increasing, the world has slowly been adopting ipv6. From the graph above, I'd say we cross over 50% in about 2-3 years time. At some point the "dash" to adopt ipv6 starts, and brave folks will drop support for ipv4. Then it'll probably evaporate between 2030-2035.

bombcar 4y ago
I'd love for some way to measure how much of my network's traffic outbound and inbound is IPv6. I assume there's some way to "count" it on the router, but Mikrotik doesn't seem to expose it directly.
- yusyusyus 4y ago
  iirc mikrotik supports netflow. that's how i account for proto balance. FWIW, owing to the nature of residential traffic, I've typically seen high (60-70% of traffic) as v6.
  - bombcar 4y ago
    Yeah, if the stream platform CDNs support IPv6 (Do they? is there a site that lists it?) then the vast majority of residential traffic will be IPv6.
    - lzaaz 4y ago
      This is exactly why this isn't a good way to measure ipv6 adoption. For example, youtube supports ipv6; if you spend all day watching youtube, 80%+ of your traffic will be ipv6.
- jrmg 4y ago
  I don’t know if this corresponds to traffic, but my local DNS server shows that it’s returning more AAAA results that A results (_just_) nowadays. This is a home cable connection in the Bay Area.
- SamuelAdams 4y ago
  PiHole is actually pretty great for this. I set up some firewall rules in OpnSense to force all devices to use PiHole as a DNS server. Then log all queries. You can see which clients are using ipv6 and how many queries there are. I would estimate that about 60% of iPhone traffic in my household (by far the busiest devices) is ipv6. We usually use big sites though like Reddit, twitter, google, etc. And then there’s the Rokus that don’t support ipv6 at all. Considering how cheap they were it doesn’t really surprise me.
- Melatonic 4y ago
  In addition to NextDNS I have been running a firewall app on my android phone (which also points to NextDNS) and shows all this. Good easy way to get started. ReThinkDNS is the app I am currently using because it integrates some block lists well but there is also a more serious Android firewall app I may switch to.
tjoff 4y ago
That is a very one-sided view of adoption. It ties directly with the rise of mobile and internet in areas that wasn't able to grab IPv4 addresses in time. Such as India. Not sure what France is doing though, maybe something right. So, from my perspective (which obviously is tied to my location) is that all computers have IPv4 (haven't heard (and I've asked) of a single consumer ISP that offers IPv6) but all mobile phones have IPv6. Whether people in general do most searches on mobile or PC is gonna change that graph dramatically, but won't explain what I would be interested in regarding ipv6 adoption. That is, how much of the world would be broken without IPv4? And for that, that graph isn't completely useless - but not too far off.
- noipv6 4y ago
  okay - how about a few other angles? https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/ https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/ - per-country, and within a country, per-asn eyeball statistics, collected from online ads - not just mobile! https://www.facebook.com/ipv6/?tab=ipv6_country https://www.facebook.com/ipv6/?tab=ipv6_country - per-country, albeit with a mobile-heavier bias (as you hint) https://www.akamai.com/internet-station/cyber-attacks/state-of-the-internet-report/ipv6-adoption-visualization https://www.akamai.com/internet-station/cyber-attacks/state-... - collected from their content delivery network - tends to show lower adoption than the other metrics i would point out that "all mobile phones have IPv6" isn't true globally, but it is the reality in some countries, yes.
  - tjoff 4y ago
    Neat, very different results. But still looking at it from the wrong direction? That is, ipv6 for clients. But I'm more interested in servers, because that is what would affect me if I don't have IPv4. Such as the experiences described by OP in this thread.
    - noipv6 4y ago
      ipv6-only web sites are borderline nonexistant, because no one who needs to maintain a profit dares to cut off a revenue stream from legacy ip only users (yet). the most exhaustive list thus far is https://sites.ip-update.net/ https://sites.ip-update.net/ afaik
mort96 4y ago
> At some point the "dash" to adopt ipv6 starts, and brave folks will drop support for ipv4. I wouldn't be sure about that. I don't see any "dash" to support v6 in our future, when the option to just keep working around issues with v4 is so much easier and cheaper in the moment. Really, what does anyone have to gain by switching to v6?
- noipv6 4y ago
  > I don't see any "dash" to support v6 in our future, when the option to just keep working around issues with v4 is so much easier and cheaper in the moment. 30-40% global adoption in ~10 years may or may not be a "dash", but it's also not nothing. "easier and cheaper" is very much not the case at larger scale. legacy ip space is only growing more expensive, & cgnat platforms are not cheap. even if a carrier HAS TO deploy cgnat, deploying ipv6 first means you don't need to buy cgnat capacity for any v6-native traffic (which is a non trivial volume) > Really, what does anyone have to gain by switching to v6? the above, & also a future-proofed, infinitely scalable network. any org's that do alot of m&a don't have to play as many stupid rfc1918 integration games. if you don't deal w/ scale, yea, hard to see the benefits. fair.
  - mort96 4y ago
    > 30-40% global adoption in ~10 years may or may not be a "dash", but it's also not nothing. Still nowhere close to being remotely unusable after soon 30 years is very very close to nothing. Regarding benefits: Amazon, Azure and all the other major VPS companies has a lot to gain from IP addresses being expensive, since it makes it almost impossible for new players to enter the market. ISPs may pay for CGNAT in terms of infrastructure and complexity, but they save in support and abuse mitigation cost by making it impossible for normal people to host their own stuff, they save in support cost by not dealing with customers' broken products which get confused by IPv6, and they gain financially from charging a ton for "pro"/"enterprise" non-CGNAT connections. And for any kind of web service, supporting IPv6 is obviously just a net negative, since you have to deal with both v4 and v6 rather than just v4. So I suppose I'm saying, sure, there are minor things to gain from v6, but it's not clear that they outweigh the (opportunity) cost of v6 for anyone, and for large sectors it's simply a cost with no upside. I don't see a rush to support v6... ever. We'll keep growing steadily but slowly for a while, then adoption will taper off. But hey, I may be wrong! I'd certainly be happy if you were right. The minuscule amount of progress across almost 30 years doesn't instill confidence though.
dilyevsky 4y ago
At previous gig already seen some isps in India that are ipv6 only

bombcar 4y ago

I'd love for some way to measure how much of my network's traffic outbound and inbound is IPv6. I assume there's some way to "count" it on the router, but Mikrotik doesn't seem to expose it directly.

yusyusyus 4y ago
iirc mikrotik supports netflow. that's how i account for proto balance. FWIW, owing to the nature of residential traffic, I've typically seen high (60-70% of traffic) as v6.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Yeah, if the stream platform CDNs support IPv6 (Do they? is there a site that lists it?) then the vast majority of residential traffic will be IPv6.
  - lzaaz 4y ago
    This is exactly why this isn't a good way to measure ipv6 adoption. For example, youtube supports ipv6; if you spend all day watching youtube, 80%+ of your traffic will be ipv6.
jrmg 4y ago
I don’t know if this corresponds to traffic, but my local DNS server shows that it’s returning more AAAA results that A results (_just_) nowadays. This is a home cable connection in the Bay Area.
SamuelAdams 4y ago
PiHole is actually pretty great for this. I set up some firewall rules in OpnSense to force all devices to use PiHole as a DNS server. Then log all queries. You can see which clients are using ipv6 and how many queries there are. I would estimate that about 60% of iPhone traffic in my household (by far the busiest devices) is ipv6. We usually use big sites though like Reddit, twitter, google, etc. And then there’s the Rokus that don’t support ipv6 at all. Considering how cheap they were it doesn’t really surprise me.
Melatonic 4y ago
In addition to NextDNS I have been running a firewall app on my android phone (which also points to NextDNS) and shows all this. Good easy way to get started. ReThinkDNS is the app I am currently using because it integrates some block lists well but there is also a more serious Android firewall app I may switch to.

tjoff 4y ago

That is a very one-sided view of adoption. It ties directly with the rise of mobile and internet in areas that wasn't able to grab IPv4 addresses in time. Such as India. Not sure what France is doing though, maybe something right. So, from my perspective (which obviously is tied to my location) is that all computers have IPv4 (haven't heard (and I've asked) of a single consumer ISP that offers IPv6) but all mobile phones have IPv6. Whether people in general do most searches on mobile or PC is gonna change that graph dramatically, but won't explain what I would be interested in regarding ipv6 adoption. That is, how much of the world would be broken without IPv4? And for that, that graph isn't completely useless - but not too far off.

noipv6 4y ago
okay - how about a few other angles? https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/ https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/ - per-country, and within a country, per-asn eyeball statistics, collected from online ads - not just mobile! https://www.facebook.com/ipv6/?tab=ipv6_country https://www.facebook.com/ipv6/?tab=ipv6_country - per-country, albeit with a mobile-heavier bias (as you hint) https://www.akamai.com/internet-station/cyber-attacks/state-of-the-internet-report/ipv6-adoption-visualization https://www.akamai.com/internet-station/cyber-attacks/state-... - collected from their content delivery network - tends to show lower adoption than the other metrics i would point out that "all mobile phones have IPv6" isn't true globally, but it is the reality in some countries, yes.
- tjoff 4y ago
  Neat, very different results. But still looking at it from the wrong direction? That is, ipv6 for clients. But I'm more interested in servers, because that is what would affect me if I don't have IPv4. Such as the experiences described by OP in this thread.
  - noipv6 4y ago
    ipv6-only web sites are borderline nonexistant, because no one who needs to maintain a profit dares to cut off a revenue stream from legacy ip only users (yet). the most exhaustive list thus far is https://sites.ip-update.net/ https://sites.ip-update.net/ afaik

mort96 4y ago

> At some point the "dash" to adopt ipv6 starts, and brave folks will drop support for ipv4. I wouldn't be sure about that. I don't see any "dash" to support v6 in our future, when the option to just keep working around issues with v4 is so much easier and cheaper in the moment. Really, what does anyone have to gain by switching to v6?

noipv6 4y ago
> I don't see any "dash" to support v6 in our future, when the option to just keep working around issues with v4 is so much easier and cheaper in the moment. 30-40% global adoption in ~10 years may or may not be a "dash", but it's also not nothing. "easier and cheaper" is very much not the case at larger scale. legacy ip space is only growing more expensive, & cgnat platforms are not cheap. even if a carrier HAS TO deploy cgnat, deploying ipv6 first means you don't need to buy cgnat capacity for any v6-native traffic (which is a non trivial volume) > Really, what does anyone have to gain by switching to v6? the above, & also a future-proofed, infinitely scalable network. any org's that do alot of m&a don't have to play as many stupid rfc1918 integration games. if you don't deal w/ scale, yea, hard to see the benefits. fair.
- mort96 4y ago
  > 30-40% global adoption in ~10 years may or may not be a "dash", but it's also not nothing. Still nowhere close to being remotely unusable after soon 30 years is very very close to nothing. Regarding benefits: Amazon, Azure and all the other major VPS companies has a lot to gain from IP addresses being expensive, since it makes it almost impossible for new players to enter the market. ISPs may pay for CGNAT in terms of infrastructure and complexity, but they save in support and abuse mitigation cost by making it impossible for normal people to host their own stuff, they save in support cost by not dealing with customers' broken products which get confused by IPv6, and they gain financially from charging a ton for "pro"/"enterprise" non-CGNAT connections. And for any kind of web service, supporting IPv6 is obviously just a net negative, since you have to deal with both v4 and v6 rather than just v4. So I suppose I'm saying, sure, there are minor things to gain from v6, but it's not clear that they outweigh the (opportunity) cost of v6 for anyone, and for large sectors it's simply a cost with no upside. I don't see a rush to support v6... ever. We'll keep growing steadily but slowly for a while, then adoption will taper off. But hey, I may be wrong! I'd certainly be happy if you were right. The minuscule amount of progress across almost 30 years doesn't instill confidence though.

dilyevsky 4y ago

At previous gig already seen some isps in India that are ipv6 only