6 ms·

Russia risks becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos

49 points by DocFeind 4y ago

lizardactivist 4y ago
Considering what the US has done to countries it has declared enemies in both recent and distant past, I imagine they are already hard at work to make this happen, with no consideration for anyone or anything other than how it benefits their own ambitions.
damagednoob 4y ago
Why does this feel like Iraq all over again? You oust Putin but what of the power vacuum that is left behind? I can't help but this is a common gambit of dictators: You think I'm bad? Wait until you see what comes after me. With nukes.
- jfengel 4y ago
  Iraq, as bad as is, has a functional government -- despite the US's best efforts to botch nation-building. There was a terrible civil war that killed far more people than the actual invasion, supported by a lot of outsiders and targeted at civilians. But as shaky as it was, the government remained. Russia wouldn't have the dubious benefit of American nation-building, but honestly is probably better off without it. The fact that there are nukes on the line is awful, but in the end the next dictator would face the same mutually-assured-destruction math that Putin does. A scarier scenario is Afghanistan, where the government we set up failed the instant we left. It was replaced by the same guys we kicked out in the first place, and is now fighting its own terrorist insurgency (who are also our enemies, for that matter). If there were nuclear weapons in Afghanistan they would almost certainly have been used already -- against each other. Russia is, hopefully, a bit more like Iraq. They have the outline of a functional government. It may or may not fall to a dictator; that would depend on the circumstances of Putin's downfall. But the biggest thing to fear there is a failed nuclear state, even more than the specifics of who runs it.
  - pessimizer 4y ago
    Iraq's previous government became the bulk of ISIS.
    - torstenvl 4y ago
      Not sure why this is downvoted. It's accepted consensus that Sunni revanchism is a major part of what contributed to Daesh/ISIS. If someone believes parent is wrong, it would be interesting to read why their interpretation is so different.
lern_too_spel 4y ago
Anybody know why this article has a byline?
- ajoberstar 4y ago
  I believe it's because it's from The World Ahead issue, which iirc always has bylines unlike the normal weekly paper.
- plaguepilled 4y ago
  Articles generally should have those. It is incredibly suspicious when they don't.
  - lern_too_spel 4y ago
    The Economist doesn't include bylines as a rule. As your sibling comment pointed out, they do in these special editions.
    - plaguepilled 4y ago
      That may be true, but it is still to the discredit of The Economist.
elzbardico 4y ago
This is basically propaganda. Have several friends from Russia, and much to the dismay of some of them, Putin's popularity is widespread, the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape, and the general population has rallied around the government as a result of the sanctions. People tend to forget that not all of Putin's claims are propaganda and that Russia had some legitimate security concerns. The situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians. Of course, I will be downvoted and flagged like there is no tomorrow. But maybe some of you will start asking questions that the western governments would prefer you don't ask, just like with WMDs in Iraq.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Putin's popularity is widespread Most sources agree on this. Even the war per se remains popular. > the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape The data do not show this, but sure. The harm is in long-term capital and workforce degradation, not anything acute. > situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians Ethnic Russians are well treated by Moscow. Nobody predicts they'll create problems for the Kremlin. This article name drops the Caucusus. But there are various Turkic, Chechen and Siberian populations who would be the first to be expected to break from the Kremlin, albeit not imminently. None of what you've said contradicts the article's thesis. The Russian state is weakening, and, if it continues on this trajectory, will lose control of its peripheries.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- mensetmanusman 4y ago
  The 1420 YT channel is a very young Russian guy walking the streets of Moscow etc. and just asking questions. https://youtube.com/@1420channel https://youtube.com/@1420channel Based only my viewings, it seems there are a lot of Russians scared that America will take over Russia and that they have to win the war. There are also many who know it is not safe to say their true feelings because they could get arrested.
2devnull 4y ago
Isn’t that our current goal? (Our meaning NATO/Ukraine.) Sounds like we’re getting the closer to our mission accomplished moment.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Isn’t that our current goal? (Our meaning NATO/Ukraine.) No. It's to get Russia out of Ukraine. Cleaning up a failed nuclear state is in nobody's interest.
  - ningunoynadie 4y ago
    How do we juxtapose this with countless South American, Asian, Middle East, African coups with seen over the decades from the US? Seems in the play book, overthrow of unfriendly regime by any means.
    - warinukraine 4y ago
      [flagged]
    - Armisael16 4y ago
      They weren’t nuclear states.
  - birdyrooster 4y ago
    Putins plan is to stay in power and/or unaccountable until death by any means necessary and I think the sacrifice of Russia’s stability is a small price for him.
  - yucky 4y ago
    This is not what the US Secretary of Defense says - https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/biden-administration-russia-strategy/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/biden-administration...
  - 2devnull 4y ago
    And then what? I sincerely believe McFaul isn’t able to think of the next step. He is thinking deontologically just as Putin (and I dare say the Russian people too) are thinking about survival. It would be good to think of the long term consequences of any foreseeable outcome. Hopefully it all goes well: Putin falls and is replaced by an internationalist. Frankly the Afghanistan debacle has caused me to doubt the wisedom and capacity for longer term thinking of the American political-military leadership. Hubris damns us all.
networkid 4y ago
The same can be said about US, EU,China... Where social polarization already so close to the red line so it could bring the states into ungovernable, militarized, chsotic formations...
- badRNG 4y ago
  The US has seen far worse periods of social polarization. And not even that far in the distant past: the red scare(s), the Civil Rights Movement(s) and the anti-war movement during Vietnam were periods of far worse internal strife. And to be frank, even Russia today doesn't have anything near the level of internal dissent the US had during the height of anti-Vietnam protests.
  - avmich 4y ago
    > Russia today doesn't have anything near the level of internal dissent Today's Maxim Katz video argues that "the war party" exists only in Kremlin, and with fall of Putin and his closest allies, everybody else in Russia won't be interested in war, which is good.
_zfxr 4y ago
https://archive.ph/w5C9Y https://archive.ph/w5C9Y
sfusato 4y ago
Has the West's propaganda gotten so low these days? I mean, come on, The Economist used to have a higher standard, deep investigative articles. This is on par with Russians soldiers have no shoes this winter. I'm more concerned with the EU becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos given the last 3 years. I bet we're more close to the tipping point than Russia is for what is worth.
pvaldes 4y ago
And would still feel like an improvement over the current situation. If "governable" means that each politician in the opposition is assassinated, and each free journalist is killed, and thousands of young Russians are sent to a meat grinder for no reason, and the government is commiting war crimes each day, and the politicians behave like pathological liars alienated from the reality, and each qualified worker is quitting the country in mass... If "governable" means this, then maybe the system is too rotten to be saved

49 points by DocFeind 4y ago

Considering what the US has done to countries it has declared enemies in both recent and distant past, I imagine they are already hard at work to make this happen, with no consideration for anyone or anything other than how it benefits their own ambitions.

damagednoob 4y ago

Why does this feel like Iraq all over again? You oust Putin but what of the power vacuum that is left behind? I can't help but this is a common gambit of dictators: You think I'm bad? Wait until you see what comes after me. With nukes.

jfengel 4y ago
Iraq, as bad as is, has a functional government -- despite the US's best efforts to botch nation-building. There was a terrible civil war that killed far more people than the actual invasion, supported by a lot of outsiders and targeted at civilians. But as shaky as it was, the government remained. Russia wouldn't have the dubious benefit of American nation-building, but honestly is probably better off without it. The fact that there are nukes on the line is awful, but in the end the next dictator would face the same mutually-assured-destruction math that Putin does. A scarier scenario is Afghanistan, where the government we set up failed the instant we left. It was replaced by the same guys we kicked out in the first place, and is now fighting its own terrorist insurgency (who are also our enemies, for that matter). If there were nuclear weapons in Afghanistan they would almost certainly have been used already -- against each other. Russia is, hopefully, a bit more like Iraq. They have the outline of a functional government. It may or may not fall to a dictator; that would depend on the circumstances of Putin's downfall. But the biggest thing to fear there is a failed nuclear state, even more than the specifics of who runs it.
- pessimizer 4y ago
  Iraq's previous government became the bulk of ISIS.
  - torstenvl 4y ago
    Not sure why this is downvoted. It's accepted consensus that Sunni revanchism is a major part of what contributed to Daesh/ISIS. If someone believes parent is wrong, it would be interesting to read why their interpretation is so different.

lern_too_spel 4y ago

Anybody know why this article has a byline?

ajoberstar 4y ago
I believe it's because it's from The World Ahead issue, which iirc always has bylines unlike the normal weekly paper.
plaguepilled 4y ago
Articles generally should have those. It is incredibly suspicious when they don't.
- lern_too_spel 4y ago
  The Economist doesn't include bylines as a rule. As your sibling comment pointed out, they do in these special editions.
  - plaguepilled 4y ago
    That may be true, but it is still to the discredit of The Economist.

elzbardico 4y ago

This is basically propaganda. Have several friends from Russia, and much to the dismay of some of them, Putin's popularity is widespread, the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape, and the general population has rallied around the government as a result of the sanctions. People tend to forget that not all of Putin's claims are propaganda and that Russia had some legitimate security concerns. The situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians. Of course, I will be downvoted and flagged like there is no tomorrow. But maybe some of you will start asking questions that the western governments would prefer you don't ask, just like with WMDs in Iraq.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Putin's popularity is widespread Most sources agree on this. Even the war per se remains popular. > the economy, while not stellar, is in good shape The data do not show this, but sure. The harm is in long-term capital and workforce degradation, not anything acute. > situation of ethnic Russians in the Donbas was a legitimate pain point for the Russians Ethnic Russians are well treated by Moscow. Nobody predicts they'll create problems for the Kremlin. This article name drops the Caucusus. But there are various Turkic, Chechen and Siberian populations who would be the first to be expected to break from the Kremlin, albeit not imminently. None of what you've said contradicts the article's thesis. The Russian state is weakening, and, if it continues on this trajectory, will lose control of its peripheries.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
mensetmanusman 4y ago
The 1420 YT channel is a very young Russian guy walking the streets of Moscow etc. and just asking questions. https://youtube.com/@1420channel https://youtube.com/@1420channel Based only my viewings, it seems there are a lot of Russians scared that America will take over Russia and that they have to win the war. There are also many who know it is not safe to say their true feelings because they could get arrested.

2devnull 4y ago

Isn’t that our current goal? (Our meaning NATO/Ukraine.) Sounds like we’re getting the closer to our mission accomplished moment.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Isn’t that our current goal? (Our meaning NATO/Ukraine.) No. It's to get Russia out of Ukraine. Cleaning up a failed nuclear state is in nobody's interest.
- ningunoynadie 4y ago
  How do we juxtapose this with countless South American, Asian, Middle East, African coups with seen over the decades from the US? Seems in the play book, overthrow of unfriendly regime by any means.
  - warinukraine 4y ago
    [flagged]
  - Armisael16 4y ago
    They weren’t nuclear states.
- birdyrooster 4y ago
  Putins plan is to stay in power and/or unaccountable until death by any means necessary and I think the sacrifice of Russia’s stability is a small price for him.
- yucky 4y ago
  This is not what the US Secretary of Defense says - https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/biden-administration-russia-strategy/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/biden-administration...
- 2devnull 4y ago
  And then what? I sincerely believe McFaul isn’t able to think of the next step. He is thinking deontologically just as Putin (and I dare say the Russian people too) are thinking about survival. It would be good to think of the long term consequences of any foreseeable outcome. Hopefully it all goes well: Putin falls and is replaced by an internationalist. Frankly the Afghanistan debacle has caused me to doubt the wisedom and capacity for longer term thinking of the American political-military leadership. Hubris damns us all.

networkid 4y ago

The same can be said about US, EU,China... Where social polarization already so close to the red line so it could bring the states into ungovernable, militarized, chsotic formations...

badRNG 4y ago
The US has seen far worse periods of social polarization. And not even that far in the distant past: the red scare(s), the Civil Rights Movement(s) and the anti-war movement during Vietnam were periods of far worse internal strife. And to be frank, even Russia today doesn't have anything near the level of internal dissent the US had during the height of anti-Vietnam protests.
- avmich 4y ago
  > Russia today doesn't have anything near the level of internal dissent Today's Maxim Katz video argues that "the war party" exists only in Kremlin, and with fall of Putin and his closest allies, everybody else in Russia won't be interested in war, which is good.

_zfxr 4y ago

https://archive.ph/w5C9Y https://archive.ph/w5C9Y

sfusato 4y ago

Has the West's propaganda gotten so low these days? I mean, come on, The Economist used to have a higher standard, deep investigative articles. This is on par with Russians soldiers have no shoes this winter. I'm more concerned with the EU becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos given the last 3 years. I bet we're more close to the tipping point than Russia is for what is worth.

pvaldes 4y ago

And would still feel like an improvement over the current situation. If "governable" means that each politician in the opposition is assassinated, and each free journalist is killed, and thousands of young Russians are sent to a meat grinder for no reason, and the government is commiting war crimes each day, and the politicians behave like pathological liars alienated from the reality, and each qualified worker is quitting the country in mass... If "governable" means this, then maybe the system is too rotten to be saved