44 ms·

I work with very large fleets making and selling software to them. Basically none of them are operationally able to go from 15 minute diesel fill ups on any co

by dchuk 4y ago

I work with very large fleets making and selling software to them. Basically none of them are operationally able to go from 15 minute diesel fill ups on any corner to the infrastructure and load planning EVs require. Like they literally don’t have the software or expertise to plan the loads around electric needs without losing money on every load. Trucking is a single digit percentage margin business. These trucks are more expensive, require infrastructure that doesn’t exist, charge slower, and don’t go anywhere near as far as diesel trucks. And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. Short haul loads? Sure. In places that demand EV on certain timelines (like California). But for everything else, these vehicles require a fundamental reshaping of transportation in America. Not saying that’s not possible, but it ain’t happening any time soon.

snek_case 4y ago
Tesla already has a very long order book for these. There is no doubt in my mind that they will sell as much as they can make. The main savings come from fuel costs and maintenance. Eventually from autonomy as well.
- SpelingBeeChamp 4y ago
  >Tesla already has a very long order book for these. Source?
Joeri 4y ago
Europe has mandatory rest stops of at least 45 minutes, so any software with the ability to plan around those should have the ability to convert them easily to recharge stops. That doesn’t mean the recharge infrastructure exists overnight, but those same stops are being converted to support the rollouts of electric car fleets (e.g. belgium is going to mandate corporate car fleets convert to electric from 2026).
- adamors 4y ago
  > Europe has mandatory rest stops of at least 45 minutes I'm not a trucker, but if your source is https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/road/social-provisions/driving-time-and-rest-periods_en https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/road/social-p... I don't read it as mandatory, more like a recommendation.
  - KptMarchewa 4y ago
    It is, and there are devices that make sure you do it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tachograph https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tachograph
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - tecleandor 4y ago
    It's encoded in the CE rule 561/2006 article 7: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32006R0561&qid=1670234570470&from=EN https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CEL... Article 7 After a driving period of four and a half hours a driver shall take an uninterrupted break of not less than 45 minutes, unless he takes a rest period. This break may be replaced by a break of at least 15 minutes followed by a break of at least 30 minutes each distributed over the period in such a way as to comply with the provisions of the first paragraph.
- amluto 4y ago
  Does the software actually need to plan the rest stops precisely? Planning to drive X hours over Y hours of real time doesn’t require choosing where the rest stops are in advance, which allows a driver to stop where convenient depending on traffic and other conditions. But if charging is required, then the stop needs to be at a charger, which is a much stronger constraint.
- SpelingBeeChamp 4y ago
  I thought truckers commonly work in teams specifically so the truck can keep moving during mandatory breaks. The driver on break goes to sleep, and their partner takes over.
aardvarkr 4y ago
Short haul trucking makes up about 80 percent of the industry, while long haul trucking only comprises 20 percent. I’m not worried about these EV semis finding their niche and thriving. For a first gen product it’s a good place to start.
- jiggawatts 4y ago
  Also the pollution from diesel engines has a far greater impact when used in cities instead of long-haul. Not to mention that trucks put out far more pollution when doing stop-start in cities. Replacing short haul trucks with electric trucks makes many kinds of good sense all at once. The same argument can be made for making school buses electric.
  - oblio 4y ago
    I'm worried about the pollution argument. Not in the climate change sense, that's clear. But in the "local air is cleaner". I've discovered recently that tire wear actually creates about as many particles as exhaust fumes, at least for cars. Tire wear is directly affected by vehicle weight. Won't electric trucks weigh a lot more than classic trucks? Actually, I checked now, and Volvo trucks for example, weigh somewhere between 10 tons and 24 tons, but 24 tons for the long cabin, sleeper, a ton of extra features, etc. So the starting point of the Tesla Semi, for example, is 27 tons according to the article. That puts it at double the average Volvo. And the worst part for the wire tear (and I think road tear), apparently it scales to the POWER OF 4 (!!!). Now, trucks also have cargo, so I guess electric trucks will carry less cargo and then we're back at the same values?
    - fbergen 4y ago
      > I've discovered recently that tire wear actually creates about as many particles as exhaust fumes, > And the worst part for the wire tear (and I think road tear), apparently it scales to the POWER OF 4 (!!!). That's very interesting. I'm a default sceptic, but would love to learn more, because if true, that could nullify a lot of the local air arguments. Do you have any sources for these?
agumonkey 4y ago
And how difficult is 4-hop route planning versus the actual way ? just trying to assess how far they are from having solutions.
sdze 4y ago
Geo-Arbitraging Fuel is also not easily attainable. Like they do here in Europe, where you can fill up your >1400-Liter-Diesel tanks with cheaper eastern Europe Diesel and bypass all the expensive Western Europe Fuel that drives you 5000KM.
gonzo41 4y ago
I would think that for trucks it's make sense for the battery to be in the bottom rail of the trailer and for pit stops for fuel where you could drive over a pit and swap the whole battery.
- canadianfella 4y ago
- greedo 4y ago
  Battery swaps make no sense for trucking (and never really did for cars). The storage required for batteries would be prohibitive, and the charging location would have to keep a decent number of expensive batteries on hand.
  - gonzo41 4y ago
    But tesla could own all of it. If tesla could make the truck 2 batteries, 1 in the truck one in the trailer. Then you make all trucks flatbed, Refueling could be as simple as hitching a new trailer, swapping a container form 1 flatbed to another. Tesla could own the trailers and essentially rent the space. People could buy the trucks and get access to the trailers. And then it's just shipping with iso containers.
    - greedo 4y ago
      Trailers really wouldn't be the ideal place for a battery since they're often dropped off at a site. And that would also take up space in the trailer, adding weight as well. Two batteries would make the entire deal heavy and expensive, and the idea of Tesla owning them wouldn't fly with most shipping companies. Lots of containers are used in intermodal transportation, and that would rely on 100% Tesla Semis everywhere they were used.
oxplot 4y ago
> These trucks are more expensive, require infrastructure that doesn’t exist, charge slower, and don’t go anywhere near as far as diesel trucks. And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff. Same thing was said about passenger cars and quoted as one of the main reasons EVs would never catch on. It looks like a chicken and egg problem until you look at it less idealistically and more pragmatically. If you watch the presentation (and I hope everyone commenting here did that first), it's most likely that the charging infra is part of the package fleet operators buy. They showed battery+solar backed Megachargers that the fleet operators are likely to be using for the near term. With this in mind, those companies that are currently buying these trucks in high numbers, are also definitely buying the charging infra with it. So with this context in mind, charging infra isn't a problem right now. And just like Superchargers for passenger cars, they will only ever increase in numbers. Slow charging is only a temporary problem and as evolution of Superchargers has made quote evident to date. From my understanding of US laws and human biology, no one can drive 2000 miles non-stop without taking multiple breaks in tens of minutes each. In fact, Tesla Semi's range is 500 miles because it's right at the edge of how long a driver can safely drive non-stop and right before they are legally required to take a break, during which time they can charge the truck.
- unityByFreedom 4y ago
  > I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff. When did it become popular to start selling beta products? Did it begin when we all bought into social media? Apple produced a computer, music player and phone that were a polished step up from what was happening before: build-your-own computer, music with insufficient storage and crap interfaces, and blackberries that only targeted business people. Underpromise and overimpress me. Enough with this overpromising-because-have-to as if that's the only way to innovate or get investment. It isn't the only way and I wish investors would do a little more due diligence to get behind innovators who know what they are doing, not just throwing money at cool things saying they'll be ready by the end of the year over an 8 year period.
  - 4y ago
oxplot 4y ago
> Basically none of them are operationally able to go from 15 minute diesel fill ups on any corner to the infrastructure and load planning EVs require. Like they literally don’t have the software or expertise to plan the loads around electric needs without losing money on every load. I understand you saying this is largely a software problem. Taking this at face value, I trust no other transportation related company but Tesla to deliver the best possible software for route planning (or anything really given they're just as big a software company as are in hardware -- see AI day presentations to get a feel of just how large a software effort they're running) if that is indeed a barrier to companies putting orders in for the Semi. I may even have heard them mention something about that in the presentation.
- greedo 4y ago
  I think you sorely underestimate how much emphasis large trucking firms put into route optimization.
- oxplot 4y ago
  > I think you sorely underestimate how much emphasis large trucking firms put into route optimization. I know software and I know Tesla's involvement in it. Based on your comment, I'm going to assume, they put maximum emphasis on route optimization, more than any other industry (which is probably false anyway). With that assumption, Tesla is in as good a position as a software company could ever be to hire the expertise (or outright purchase existing companies) and make the best software for fleet management IF that means they'll sell to significantly larger customer base.
coffeeblack 4y ago
That’s the exact same things you could hear 10 years ago regarding electric cats. And now every single car company is panicking to adopt electric, and many countries are going to make burners illegal. So give out some years. Production capacity isn’t that high anyway, mostly because of battery production capacities.
- canadianfella 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
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jillesvangurp 4y ago
Whether they are ready or not, they'll have to deal with competitors that won't have to worry about diesel fuel expenses. Tesla is not going to have any demand issues here. If this thing works as advertised (and that seems to be the case) and they ramp up production to 50k vehicles/year over the next two years, there are going to be two classes of truck companies: those driving electrically and those who don't. My guess is that when the dust settles, there won't be a huge market for ice trucks in a few years. Unlike cars, trucking companies operate based on financials. With razor thin margins, decimating fuel cost is going to matter a lot.
- brtkdotse 4y ago
  > Tesla is not going to have any demand issues here. If this thing works as advertised (and that seems to be the case) and they ramp up production to 50k vehicles/year over the next two years Pretty big “if” they’re chief. While they very well may not have any demand issues, I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll probably will have supply issues. Launching the production of a new model is no walk in the park and the organization already seems to have problems with QA on the existing models.
  - jillesvangurp 4y ago
    Tesla has a lot of experience with this. They managed growth and profit throughout the covid crisis and related supply chain disruptions and invested in expanding production capacity further all while many of their competitors were basically struggling with staying profitable. So, I would not dismiss their ability to execute on what they've announced here. They are obviously well aware of supply chain challenges and have been heavily investing in solutions for that. And they obviously waited with this until they had the logistics and manufacturing in place. And it seems that they are re-using a lot of components they already have - like their drive train and batteries. And they do have a lot of new production capacity coming online.
    - greedo 4y ago
      I don't think Ford has particularly struggled to stay profitable making the MachE and Lightning truck. Neither has Volvo (Tesla's biggest competition in the Semi market).
michaelt 4y ago
> And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. This advertises a 500 mile range, which at 60 mph is 8h20m of driving. And a 70% charge in 30 minutes. Does the US trucking industry routinely have people drive for 8h+ without even a 30 minute break?
- icelancer 4y ago
  Legally, no. Practically, yes.
  - tecleandor 4y ago
    Aren't tachographs or other logging means mandatory as in EU ?
    - oblio 4y ago
      If you're from the EU, you can probably already guess the answer to that question for the land of "don't tread on me" :-p
      - vinay427 4y ago
        This is a rather unhelpful response given that I'm not sure many would guess correctly. Paper books have been used in the US for decades and electronic devices were made mandatory for most drivers (>8 days out of 30, apparently). Canada is now planning to emulate the US regulations on this. > An ELD is an Electronic Logging Device that became compulsory in 2017 in the US for commercial driving operations required to keep hours of service records. If a driver has eight or more days worth of duty status logs (out of 30) they will be required by law to use an ELD. https://www.optac.info/uk/eld-vs-tachograph/ https://www.optac.info/uk/eld-vs-tachograph/ https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/hours-service/elds/eld-fact-sheet-english-version https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/hours-service/elds/eld-fact-sheet-...
        oblio 4y ago
Someone 4y ago
> Short haul loads? Sure. In places that demand EV on certain timelines (like California). > But for everything else, these vehicles require a fundamental reshaping of transportation in America. Not saying that’s not possible, but it ain’t happening any time soon. Electric trucking doesn’t have to (immediately) take over the entire industry. All that counts is for that first part to be large enough. You see that with electric shipping, too. Short-distance ferries may already be economically feasible. That shipping stuff around the world on battery power isn’t, and maybe never will be, doesn’t matter.
lifeisstillgood 4y ago
yeah but what I hear is a massive software based business opportunity and you are amazingly well placed for it ... can we chat :-)
- deleted 4y ago
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mandeepj 4y ago
> Trucking is a single digit percentage margin business. Only at HN: 1. Credit card processing is a razor thin margin business 2. Trucking is a low margin business 3. Retail is a ultra low margin business 4. Airlines don't make money 5. Phones is a low margin business 6. Desktops don't make money 7. Cars is a money losing venture But, then how come all of the above companies built empires?
- automatic6131 4y ago
  >But, then how come all of the above companies built empires? By leveraging credit on those consistent low margins and not being ran as badly as most software companies that could not function without 50+% margins or infininte free credit. Or by coming up with an adjacent industry that does make profit. (airlines, desktops, phones not made by the korean or fruit companies)
  - thedrbrian 4y ago
    >Or by coming up with an adjacent industry that does make profit. Or being owned by the company making the profit , after said company realised how much they were spending on 3PL when they already had HR/depots/etc that could be used for trucking companies.
- mschuster91 4y ago
  > But, then how come all of the above companies built empires? Scale based on insane amounts of venture capital and debt. If you're running 450M transactions a day like Mastercard, you only need a few cents per transactions in profit and you have a money making machine. For example, car companies hand out huge bonuses to employees who figure out even a dollar in lower costs - at the scale of, say, Toyota with 8.6 million cars a year [1], that amounts to 8.6 million dollars more in profit. Give the employee in question a hundred thousand, the employee is happy and the beancounters even more. Or airlines... when your average plane will always have a number of no-shows (around 5% [2]), it is more profitable to overbook and in the rare case that it does go wrong, pay off someone with 500$ in cash. [1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftszahlen_zum_Automobil https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftszahlen_zum_Automobi... [2] https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/11/overbooking/ https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/11/overbooking/
chemmail 4y ago
That's what everyone said about Tesla cars, but here we are with them worth more than the bottom 20 cars makers combine minus toyota.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  What does stock price have to do with the quality of the product? There's a New Jersey deli that was worth $2 billion recently. Theranos, a total fraud, got to $10 billion with nothing.
MrQuincle 4y ago
I think this should be launched in Europe first. Fuel is more expensive. Regulations on how long to drive are strict. And with 400 miles it's already that far that you're not anymore in the country I live in (the Netherlands).
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  This is a poor design for Europe which has limits on the length of the tractor and trailer combined. Anybody using this tractor in Europe will have to use a shorter trailer.
jiggawatts 4y ago
If only there was some method for easily modifying software to suite changes to the hardware! /s
panick21_ 4y ago
Isn't the vast majority of trucking 'short haul'. At least in Europe on a long haul, you have to stop quite frequently. I do see an issue that these truck stops will require massively more electric power and some investment. (Please lets build more nuclear plants). And in terms of maintenance and fuel cost these trucks should outperform diesel trucks by a wide margin and make up the capx different multiple times over.
pjkundert 4y ago
A close friend of ours drove for a food service delivery company. He picked up a load in the morning, drove a few hundred kilometre highway/city route with a dozen stops during the day, and parked back at the depot at end of day. Perfect for the Tesla Semi. There are hundreds of trucks doing similar routes just in our metropolitan area. There is a huge potential market for these trucks.
- hef19898 4y ago
  And Tesla is not the first company to enter it.
- cjrp 4y ago
  In trucks this size, not just vans?
  - Kirby64 4y ago
    Trucks this size. Plenty of full-size semis with full trailers doing deliveries for larger businesses, especially in dense urban areas (like downtown regions) where you need that much trailer space for all the stuff you load.
neilfrndes 4y ago
I make and sell software to truck fleets too :) I've seen some fleets plan their fuel stops using software to take advantage of fuel card discounts they get at certain gas stations, which helps stretch the single digit margins you mentioned. I can see this kind of software being extended to EV charge planning as well.
- foobarian 4y ago
  How many developers can there be making and selling software to truck fleets? Makes me think these are small time operations ripe for disruption a la what Uber did to taxi companies. No offense meant of course! Just wondering :-)
  - greedo 4y ago
    Do you mean the trucking companies or the software developers? The trucking companies aren't small companies by any measure. Werner Enterprises for example has 13k employees, 8k trucks, and $700M in revenue. And they're a small fry in shipping. JB Hunt has 30K employees and $12B in revenue. Swift Transportation has 22K employees, 23K trucks, and $6B in revenue. Schneider Transportation has 19K employees and revenues of $5.5B. Many of these companies have in house developers working on custom logistics packages to optimize every single detail of their operations. It's a very small margin business.
  - dhosek 4y ago
    I’m in the midst of job search right now and I’m interviewing with two different companies doing shipping logistics. I’ve seen at least one other in the course of this job search. I’m guessing that there’s been a lot of thinking happening in this space already.
Cthulhu_ 4y ago
While you have compelling arguments, there's others in favor of taking the hit on efficiency; lower fuel costs, higher efficiency / speed, but probably more importantly, environmental impact. Unfortunately, being more environmentally friendly frequently comes at a cost. But the lower maintenance and fuel costs will help offset some of those costs, in theory.
3pt14159 4y ago
> Basically none of them are operationally able to go from 15 minute diesel fill ups on any corner to the infrastructure and load planning EVs require [... for] electric needs without losing money on every load. > Trucking is a single digit percentage margin business. This is a basic economics problem then. The cost of writing the software. The cost of hydrocarbons. The cost of electricity. The cost of time. The cost of maintenance. The cost of breakdowns. I don't know too much about long haul trucking, but I know a decent amount about vehicles in general, and I have an engineering degree so my knowledge of physics is better than average. I have yet to see a compelling reason why non-electrified trucks will survive. If you only look at the cost of breakdowns and fuel, and compare it to the cost of time, those breakdowns will pay for themselves. Completely leaving aside self driving technology. Even if we have to pay for drivers for the next thirty years. It does not matter. Everything else will bend around the basic economics of electrified trucking. The law, the charging stations, the software, the schedules, everything. When an industry has such tiny margins as you correctly observe, an entrance of a technology can that can only serve a niche, but at extremely wide margins compared to existing players, will absolutely dominate. There is a reason Pepsi is one of their first major buyers. The soft drinks are in the cities. But as these trucks dominate there more research will go into supporting them elsewhere. Fast swappable batteries, MASER charging along highways, more charge points per truck. It doesn't matter. All these problems will be eaten by the massive wave of cash coming towards them by the early entrants that applied the technology where it was most suited in the short-term. And then after that we'll get self-driving and it will be truly lights out for the legacy logistics companies. The only question is where in the five to fifty year period that will be.
- bluGill 4y ago
  For trips to very remote places that get shipments once a week or so diesel with the ability to strap on extra tanks seems like a niche that will last for a long time. And collectors will keep a handful of engiens going. Probably other niches too, but the vast majority seem like ev is the future.
thomasjb 4y ago
In what case is a long haul really required? Other than specialist superheavy or extra wide/long loads, everything should be on a train for those long runs. Modalohr [1] wagons make it very easy, although I have seen a specialised forklift setting semi-trailers onboard [2] trains in Rotterdam. This sort of handling is probably ripe for automation (there is a standard for the trailers, add some tags for computer vision and work on it from there). I saw something recently about a Modalohr-esque system to put hooklift containers on wagons for local waste collection in Switzerland. My personal dream is that not only is port to industry fully on rails, but local distribution is rail-oriented also, to the point that a significant proportion of deliveries to shops in cities are made using pallets or trolleys loaded on freight trams. I do understand that the unusual nature of America makes this sort of change nigh-impossible, but maybe they could ship their semi-trailers on trains? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modalohr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modalohr (second picture shows it best) [2] As in this image: https://forwardermagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Picture_Cologne_Se%CC%80te.jpg https://forwardermagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Pic...
- bluGill 4y ago
  Rail companies don't know how to operate the business model required for that. They can get you a train load every day no problem, but if you want a truck once in a while at times not planned well in advance they are lost.
throwaway9870 4y ago
I have worked in "lower tech"" fields and have worked extensively with trucking companies, so I can somewhat relate to what you are saying and agree it is a bigger obstacle than people in tech give it credit for. However, it is also a nice business opportunity for a software team to build a really important product. Somebody should be able to get VC funding for this. BTW, in my experience, once someone wins this business and a trucking company is using your software, if you don't screw it up badly, you are locked in for a LONG time.
ajross 4y ago
> And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. If there are genuine advantages to EV trucking, then I don't see how any of this matters. This isn't a heavily regulated industry and there's very little barrier to entry. If you can save money on shipping by buying a bunch of Teslas and converting long hauls to relays, then someone will just do it regardless of whether the existing players are "ready to figure it out". Now, are there advantages? We'll see. A lot depends on what happens in the fuel markets in the coming years. But the long term trends point away from diesel for sure.
infecto 4y ago
No disagreement with what you said but hasn't the whole pitch for Tesla Semi been for short hauls right now? Short hauls make a ton of sense on paper, limited highway miles where energy use can be highest, lighter loads and more stop and go. With a ev semi it seems that you might be able to take a large part fleet maintenance out as well as fueling logistics.
- user_named 4y ago
  Explain why short hauls make sense. Your post doesn't show it.
  - infecto 4y ago
    Probably just throwing food under the bridge but here we go. Short hauls: 1) Are at slower speeds which for most EVs means greater efficiency. 2) Have more stop and go driving which is more efficient in EVs compared to ICEs. I don't have the papers handy but IIRC there can be more pollutants generated in the acceleration phase of a vehicle, another reason EV makes sense for short hauls. 3) Park at the same facility at night which can have charging setup. Long hauls, unless specific corporate routes, do not have charging infrastructure.
    - user_named 4y ago
      1 goes for any vehicle. 2 yeah, nope no source. EVs weigh more and therefore pollute more when braking so should not be used in cities. 3 no advantage compared to combustion engines.
      - infecto 4y ago
        Ahhh you misunderstood my original statement. Sorry, thanks for taking care of the bridge though.
PM_me_your_math 4y ago
"Long haul" Just add a diesel generator to the back. Problem solved. :)
prmoustache 4y ago
Well this only create a market opportunity for a new software, or new software version. Imho the biggest global challenge is electric supply. And I mean globally, not US + Canada. If we want EV trucks and cars globally we need way more nuclear power than we have right now. It is all fun and nice to fill USA, Canada and some wealthy countries in Asia, Oceania and Europe with EVs. Will that change a lot in term of climaye change if other countries cannot develop and decent charging network, are struggling already with energy demand or still rely mostly on coal to produce electricity?
Ancapistani 4y ago
> And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. Uh... I worked for one of the largest LTL companies in the US for years, and to my knowledge all of their road drivers were "home every night". Several runs out West were "hook and turn" - two trucks drive toward each other half the day, meet in the middle, swap trailers, and drive back home. Further, a 500mi range is starting to get awfully close to the "11 consecutive hour" DOT Hours of Service limits.
motoboi 4y ago
Look, you are missing the big picture here. Imagine a remote controlled truck and then, later, a fully autonomous truck. This is what Tesla is aiming for here, they just have to begin somewhere. This Semi is not a truck, is a data collection tool. For some customers in some settings this already make sense as it is, but the goal is hit the road and start collecting data as soon as possible. If that in mind, now imagine a fleet of 20 trucks being remotely monitored by a single driver. Does that make sense for you in terms of logistics and economics?
kolbe 4y ago
I can't take you seriously if you only cite the negatives and not the positives. There's $60k/year of fuel savings to be had here. Show why that isn't enough, rather than ignoring it.
taylodl 4y ago
The side of the equation you're ignoring is maintenance. Commercial fleets also have garages and FTE mechanics maintaining the vehicles in the fleet. That all costs money and needs to be factored into your cost analysis. I work for a large public utility generating electricity. We switched our fleet to electric trucks years ago, and not because we're an electric company - frankly our bean counters don't care about that! It all came down to lower operational costs, higher reliability, and vehicle longevity. Being an electric company we don't have to worry about charging infrastructure, but still - the electric vehicles proved to be significantly cheaper to operate, and not just in fuel costs.
throwaway69123 4y ago
If trucking is an no dispute single digit margin wouldn’t a double digit reduction in fuel cost create a massive competitive advantage
illiac786 4y ago
Diesel Trucks margin will go down as more and more regions make it financially less attractive to use diesel trucks. Then the prices for hauling will go u, infra will catch up, software will catch up too, and EVs will become the best choice. That’s how I expect this evolution to happen. Timelines are difficult to predict though. Looking at the current momentum I really expect the poitn where most new trucks are EV to happen within a couple of years at most, not a decade.

by dchuk 4y ago

snek_case 4y ago

Tesla already has a very long order book for these. There is no doubt in my mind that they will sell as much as they can make. The main savings come from fuel costs and maintenance. Eventually from autonomy as well.

SpelingBeeChamp 4y ago
>Tesla already has a very long order book for these. Source?

Joeri 4y ago

Europe has mandatory rest stops of at least 45 minutes, so any software with the ability to plan around those should have the ability to convert them easily to recharge stops. That doesn’t mean the recharge infrastructure exists overnight, but those same stops are being converted to support the rollouts of electric car fleets (e.g. belgium is going to mandate corporate car fleets convert to electric from 2026).

adamors 4y ago
> Europe has mandatory rest stops of at least 45 minutes I'm not a trucker, but if your source is https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/road/social-provisions/driving-time-and-rest-periods_en https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-modes/road/social-p... I don't read it as mandatory, more like a recommendation.
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  It is, and there are devices that make sure you do it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tachograph https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tachograph
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- tecleandor 4y ago
  It's encoded in the CE rule 561/2006 article 7: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32006R0561&qid=1670234570470&from=EN https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CEL... Article 7 After a driving period of four and a half hours a driver shall take an uninterrupted break of not less than 45 minutes, unless he takes a rest period. This break may be replaced by a break of at least 15 minutes followed by a break of at least 30 minutes each distributed over the period in such a way as to comply with the provisions of the first paragraph.
amluto 4y ago
Does the software actually need to plan the rest stops precisely? Planning to drive X hours over Y hours of real time doesn’t require choosing where the rest stops are in advance, which allows a driver to stop where convenient depending on traffic and other conditions. But if charging is required, then the stop needs to be at a charger, which is a much stronger constraint.
SpelingBeeChamp 4y ago
I thought truckers commonly work in teams specifically so the truck can keep moving during mandatory breaks. The driver on break goes to sleep, and their partner takes over.

aardvarkr 4y ago

Short haul trucking makes up about 80 percent of the industry, while long haul trucking only comprises 20 percent. I’m not worried about these EV semis finding their niche and thriving. For a first gen product it’s a good place to start.

jiggawatts 4y ago
Also the pollution from diesel engines has a far greater impact when used in cities instead of long-haul. Not to mention that trucks put out far more pollution when doing stop-start in cities. Replacing short haul trucks with electric trucks makes many kinds of good sense all at once. The same argument can be made for making school buses electric.
- oblio 4y ago
  I'm worried about the pollution argument. Not in the climate change sense, that's clear. But in the "local air is cleaner". I've discovered recently that tire wear actually creates about as many particles as exhaust fumes, at least for cars. Tire wear is directly affected by vehicle weight. Won't electric trucks weigh a lot more than classic trucks? Actually, I checked now, and Volvo trucks for example, weigh somewhere between 10 tons and 24 tons, but 24 tons for the long cabin, sleeper, a ton of extra features, etc. So the starting point of the Tesla Semi, for example, is 27 tons according to the article. That puts it at double the average Volvo. And the worst part for the wire tear (and I think road tear), apparently it scales to the POWER OF 4 (!!!). Now, trucks also have cargo, so I guess electric trucks will carry less cargo and then we're back at the same values?
  - fbergen 4y ago
    > I've discovered recently that tire wear actually creates about as many particles as exhaust fumes, > And the worst part for the wire tear (and I think road tear), apparently it scales to the POWER OF 4 (!!!). That's very interesting. I'm a default sceptic, but would love to learn more, because if true, that could nullify a lot of the local air arguments. Do you have any sources for these?

agumonkey 4y ago

And how difficult is 4-hop route planning versus the actual way ? just trying to assess how far they are from having solutions.

sdze 4y ago

Geo-Arbitraging Fuel is also not easily attainable. Like they do here in Europe, where you can fill up your >1400-Liter-Diesel tanks with cheaper eastern Europe Diesel and bypass all the expensive Western Europe Fuel that drives you 5000KM.

gonzo41 4y ago

I would think that for trucks it's make sense for the battery to be in the bottom rail of the trailer and for pit stops for fuel where you could drive over a pit and swap the whole battery.

canadianfella 4y ago
greedo 4y ago
Battery swaps make no sense for trucking (and never really did for cars). The storage required for batteries would be prohibitive, and the charging location would have to keep a decent number of expensive batteries on hand.
- gonzo41 4y ago
  But tesla could own all of it. If tesla could make the truck 2 batteries, 1 in the truck one in the trailer. Then you make all trucks flatbed, Refueling could be as simple as hitching a new trailer, swapping a container form 1 flatbed to another. Tesla could own the trailers and essentially rent the space. People could buy the trucks and get access to the trailers. And then it's just shipping with iso containers.
  - greedo 4y ago
    Trailers really wouldn't be the ideal place for a battery since they're often dropped off at a site. And that would also take up space in the trailer, adding weight as well. Two batteries would make the entire deal heavy and expensive, and the idea of Tesla owning them wouldn't fly with most shipping companies. Lots of containers are used in intermodal transportation, and that would rely on 100% Tesla Semis everywhere they were used.

oxplot 4y ago

> These trucks are more expensive, require infrastructure that doesn’t exist, charge slower, and don’t go anywhere near as far as diesel trucks. And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff. Same thing was said about passenger cars and quoted as one of the main reasons EVs would never catch on. It looks like a chicken and egg problem until you look at it less idealistically and more pragmatically. If you watch the presentation (and I hope everyone commenting here did that first), it's most likely that the charging infra is part of the package fleet operators buy. They showed battery+solar backed Megachargers that the fleet operators are likely to be using for the near term. With this in mind, those companies that are currently buying these trucks in high numbers, are also definitely buying the charging infra with it. So with this context in mind, charging infra isn't a problem right now. And just like Superchargers for passenger cars, they will only ever increase in numbers. Slow charging is only a temporary problem and as evolution of Superchargers has made quote evident to date. From my understanding of US laws and human biology, no one can drive 2000 miles non-stop without taking multiple breaks in tens of minutes each. In fact, Tesla Semi's range is 500 miles because it's right at the edge of how long a driver can safely drive non-stop and right before they are legally required to take a break, during which time they can charge the truck.

unityByFreedom 4y ago
> I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff. When did it become popular to start selling beta products? Did it begin when we all bought into social media? Apple produced a computer, music player and phone that were a polished step up from what was happening before: build-your-own computer, music with insufficient storage and crap interfaces, and blackberries that only targeted business people. Underpromise and overimpress me. Enough with this overpromising-because-have-to as if that's the only way to innovate or get investment. It isn't the only way and I wish investors would do a little more due diligence to get behind innovators who know what they are doing, not just throwing money at cool things saying they'll be ready by the end of the year over an 8 year period.
- 4y ago

oxplot 4y ago

> Basically none of them are operationally able to go from 15 minute diesel fill ups on any corner to the infrastructure and load planning EVs require. Like they literally don’t have the software or expertise to plan the loads around electric needs without losing money on every load. I understand you saying this is largely a software problem. Taking this at face value, I trust no other transportation related company but Tesla to deliver the best possible software for route planning (or anything really given they're just as big a software company as are in hardware -- see AI day presentations to get a feel of just how large a software effort they're running) if that is indeed a barrier to companies putting orders in for the Semi. I may even have heard them mention something about that in the presentation.

greedo 4y ago
I think you sorely underestimate how much emphasis large trucking firms put into route optimization.
oxplot 4y ago
> I think you sorely underestimate how much emphasis large trucking firms put into route optimization. I know software and I know Tesla's involvement in it. Based on your comment, I'm going to assume, they put maximum emphasis on route optimization, more than any other industry (which is probably false anyway). With that assumption, Tesla is in as good a position as a software company could ever be to hire the expertise (or outright purchase existing companies) and make the best software for fleet management IF that means they'll sell to significantly larger customer base.

coffeeblack 4y ago

That’s the exact same things you could hear 10 years ago regarding electric cats. And now every single car company is panicking to adopt electric, and many countries are going to make burners illegal. So give out some years. Production capacity isn’t that high anyway, mostly because of battery production capacities.

canadianfella 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
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jillesvangurp 4y ago

Whether they are ready or not, they'll have to deal with competitors that won't have to worry about diesel fuel expenses. Tesla is not going to have any demand issues here. If this thing works as advertised (and that seems to be the case) and they ramp up production to 50k vehicles/year over the next two years, there are going to be two classes of truck companies: those driving electrically and those who don't. My guess is that when the dust settles, there won't be a huge market for ice trucks in a few years. Unlike cars, trucking companies operate based on financials. With razor thin margins, decimating fuel cost is going to matter a lot.

brtkdotse 4y ago
> Tesla is not going to have any demand issues here. If this thing works as advertised (and that seems to be the case) and they ramp up production to 50k vehicles/year over the next two years Pretty big “if” they’re chief. While they very well may not have any demand issues, I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll probably will have supply issues. Launching the production of a new model is no walk in the park and the organization already seems to have problems with QA on the existing models.
- jillesvangurp 4y ago
  Tesla has a lot of experience with this. They managed growth and profit throughout the covid crisis and related supply chain disruptions and invested in expanding production capacity further all while many of their competitors were basically struggling with staying profitable. So, I would not dismiss their ability to execute on what they've announced here. They are obviously well aware of supply chain challenges and have been heavily investing in solutions for that. And they obviously waited with this until they had the logistics and manufacturing in place. And it seems that they are re-using a lot of components they already have - like their drive train and batteries. And they do have a lot of new production capacity coming online.
  - greedo 4y ago
    I don't think Ford has particularly struggled to stay profitable making the MachE and Lightning truck. Neither has Volvo (Tesla's biggest competition in the Semi market).

michaelt 4y ago

> And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. This advertises a 500 mile range, which at 60 mph is 8h20m of driving. And a 70% charge in 30 minutes. Does the US trucking industry routinely have people drive for 8h+ without even a 30 minute break?

icelancer 4y ago
Legally, no. Practically, yes.
- tecleandor 4y ago
  Aren't tachographs or other logging means mandatory as in EU ?
  - oblio 4y ago
    If you're from the EU, you can probably already guess the answer to that question for the land of "don't tread on me" :-p
    - vinay427 4y ago
      This is a rather unhelpful response given that I'm not sure many would guess correctly. Paper books have been used in the US for decades and electronic devices were made mandatory for most drivers (>8 days out of 30, apparently). Canada is now planning to emulate the US regulations on this. > An ELD is an Electronic Logging Device that became compulsory in 2017 in the US for commercial driving operations required to keep hours of service records. If a driver has eight or more days worth of duty status logs (out of 30) they will be required by law to use an ELD. https://www.optac.info/uk/eld-vs-tachograph/ https://www.optac.info/uk/eld-vs-tachograph/ https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/hours-service/elds/eld-fact-sheet-english-version https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/hours-service/elds/eld-fact-sheet-...
      - oblio 4y ago

Someone 4y ago

> Short haul loads? Sure. In places that demand EV on certain timelines (like California). > But for everything else, these vehicles require a fundamental reshaping of transportation in America. Not saying that’s not possible, but it ain’t happening any time soon. Electric trucking doesn’t have to (immediately) take over the entire industry. All that counts is for that first part to be large enough. You see that with electric shipping, too. Short-distance ferries may already be economically feasible. That shipping stuff around the world on battery power isn’t, and maybe never will be, doesn’t matter.

lifeisstillgood 4y ago

yeah but what I hear is a massive software based business opportunity and you are amazingly well placed for it ... can we chat :-)

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

mandeepj 4y ago

> Trucking is a single digit percentage margin business. Only at HN: 1. Credit card processing is a razor thin margin business 2. Trucking is a low margin business 3. Retail is a ultra low margin business 4. Airlines don't make money 5. Phones is a low margin business 6. Desktops don't make money 7. Cars is a money losing venture But, then how come all of the above companies built empires?

automatic6131 4y ago
>But, then how come all of the above companies built empires? By leveraging credit on those consistent low margins and not being ran as badly as most software companies that could not function without 50+% margins or infininte free credit. Or by coming up with an adjacent industry that does make profit. (airlines, desktops, phones not made by the korean or fruit companies)
- thedrbrian 4y ago
  >Or by coming up with an adjacent industry that does make profit. Or being owned by the company making the profit , after said company realised how much they were spending on 3PL when they already had HR/depots/etc that could be used for trucking companies.
mschuster91 4y ago
> But, then how come all of the above companies built empires? Scale based on insane amounts of venture capital and debt. If you're running 450M transactions a day like Mastercard, you only need a few cents per transactions in profit and you have a money making machine. For example, car companies hand out huge bonuses to employees who figure out even a dollar in lower costs - at the scale of, say, Toyota with 8.6 million cars a year [1], that amounts to 8.6 million dollars more in profit. Give the employee in question a hundred thousand, the employee is happy and the beancounters even more. Or airlines... when your average plane will always have a number of no-shows (around 5% [2]), it is more profitable to overbook and in the rare case that it does go wrong, pay off someone with 500$ in cash. [1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftszahlen_zum_Automobil https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftszahlen_zum_Automobi... [2] https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/11/overbooking/ https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/11/overbooking/

chemmail 4y ago

That's what everyone said about Tesla cars, but here we are with them worth more than the bottom 20 cars makers combine minus toyota.

pclmulqdq 4y ago
What does stock price have to do with the quality of the product? There's a New Jersey deli that was worth $2 billion recently. Theranos, a total fraud, got to $10 billion with nothing.

MrQuincle 4y ago

I think this should be launched in Europe first. Fuel is more expensive. Regulations on how long to drive are strict. And with 400 miles it's already that far that you're not anymore in the country I live in (the Netherlands).

bryanlarsen 4y ago
This is a poor design for Europe which has limits on the length of the tractor and trailer combined. Anybody using this tractor in Europe will have to use a shorter trailer.

jiggawatts 4y ago

If only there was some method for easily modifying software to suite changes to the hardware! /s

panick21_ 4y ago

Isn't the vast majority of trucking 'short haul'. At least in Europe on a long haul, you have to stop quite frequently. I do see an issue that these truck stops will require massively more electric power and some investment. (Please lets build more nuclear plants). And in terms of maintenance and fuel cost these trucks should outperform diesel trucks by a wide margin and make up the capx different multiple times over.

pjkundert 4y ago

A close friend of ours drove for a food service delivery company. He picked up a load in the morning, drove a few hundred kilometre highway/city route with a dozen stops during the day, and parked back at the depot at end of day. Perfect for the Tesla Semi. There are hundreds of trucks doing similar routes just in our metropolitan area. There is a huge potential market for these trucks.

hef19898 4y ago
And Tesla is not the first company to enter it.
cjrp 4y ago
In trucks this size, not just vans?
- Kirby64 4y ago
  Trucks this size. Plenty of full-size semis with full trailers doing deliveries for larger businesses, especially in dense urban areas (like downtown regions) where you need that much trailer space for all the stuff you load.

neilfrndes 4y ago

I make and sell software to truck fleets too :) I've seen some fleets plan their fuel stops using software to take advantage of fuel card discounts they get at certain gas stations, which helps stretch the single digit margins you mentioned. I can see this kind of software being extended to EV charge planning as well.

foobarian 4y ago
How many developers can there be making and selling software to truck fleets? Makes me think these are small time operations ripe for disruption a la what Uber did to taxi companies. No offense meant of course! Just wondering :-)
- greedo 4y ago
  Do you mean the trucking companies or the software developers? The trucking companies aren't small companies by any measure. Werner Enterprises for example has 13k employees, 8k trucks, and $700M in revenue. And they're a small fry in shipping. JB Hunt has 30K employees and $12B in revenue. Swift Transportation has 22K employees, 23K trucks, and $6B in revenue. Schneider Transportation has 19K employees and revenues of $5.5B. Many of these companies have in house developers working on custom logistics packages to optimize every single detail of their operations. It's a very small margin business.
- dhosek 4y ago
  I’m in the midst of job search right now and I’m interviewing with two different companies doing shipping logistics. I’ve seen at least one other in the course of this job search. I’m guessing that there’s been a lot of thinking happening in this space already.

Cthulhu_ 4y ago

While you have compelling arguments, there's others in favor of taking the hit on efficiency; lower fuel costs, higher efficiency / speed, but probably more importantly, environmental impact. Unfortunately, being more environmentally friendly frequently comes at a cost. But the lower maintenance and fuel costs will help offset some of those costs, in theory.

3pt14159 4y ago

> Basically none of them are operationally able to go from 15 minute diesel fill ups on any corner to the infrastructure and load planning EVs require [... for] electric needs without losing money on every load. > Trucking is a single digit percentage margin business. This is a basic economics problem then. The cost of writing the software. The cost of hydrocarbons. The cost of electricity. The cost of time. The cost of maintenance. The cost of breakdowns. I don't know too much about long haul trucking, but I know a decent amount about vehicles in general, and I have an engineering degree so my knowledge of physics is better than average. I have yet to see a compelling reason why non-electrified trucks will survive. If you only look at the cost of breakdowns and fuel, and compare it to the cost of time, those breakdowns will pay for themselves. Completely leaving aside self driving technology. Even if we have to pay for drivers for the next thirty years. It does not matter. Everything else will bend around the basic economics of electrified trucking. The law, the charging stations, the software, the schedules, everything. When an industry has such tiny margins as you correctly observe, an entrance of a technology can that can only serve a niche, but at extremely wide margins compared to existing players, will absolutely dominate. There is a reason Pepsi is one of their first major buyers. The soft drinks are in the cities. But as these trucks dominate there more research will go into supporting them elsewhere. Fast swappable batteries, MASER charging along highways, more charge points per truck. It doesn't matter. All these problems will be eaten by the massive wave of cash coming towards them by the early entrants that applied the technology where it was most suited in the short-term. And then after that we'll get self-driving and it will be truly lights out for the legacy logistics companies. The only question is where in the five to fifty year period that will be.

bluGill 4y ago
For trips to very remote places that get shipments once a week or so diesel with the ability to strap on extra tanks seems like a niche that will last for a long time. And collectors will keep a handful of engiens going. Probably other niches too, but the vast majority seem like ev is the future.

thomasjb 4y ago

In what case is a long haul really required? Other than specialist superheavy or extra wide/long loads, everything should be on a train for those long runs. Modalohr [1] wagons make it very easy, although I have seen a specialised forklift setting semi-trailers onboard [2] trains in Rotterdam. This sort of handling is probably ripe for automation (there is a standard for the trailers, add some tags for computer vision and work on it from there). I saw something recently about a Modalohr-esque system to put hooklift containers on wagons for local waste collection in Switzerland. My personal dream is that not only is port to industry fully on rails, but local distribution is rail-oriented also, to the point that a significant proportion of deliveries to shops in cities are made using pallets or trolleys loaded on freight trams. I do understand that the unusual nature of America makes this sort of change nigh-impossible, but maybe they could ship their semi-trailers on trains? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modalohr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modalohr (second picture shows it best) [2] As in this image: https://forwardermagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Picture_Cologne_Se%CC%80te.jpg https://forwardermagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Pic...

bluGill 4y ago
Rail companies don't know how to operate the business model required for that. They can get you a train load every day no problem, but if you want a truck once in a while at times not planned well in advance they are lost.

throwaway9870 4y ago

I have worked in "lower tech"" fields and have worked extensively with trucking companies, so I can somewhat relate to what you are saying and agree it is a bigger obstacle than people in tech give it credit for. However, it is also a nice business opportunity for a software team to build a really important product. Somebody should be able to get VC funding for this. BTW, in my experience, once someone wins this business and a trucking company is using your software, if you don't screw it up badly, you are locked in for a LONG time.

ajross 4y ago

> And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. If there are genuine advantages to EV trucking, then I don't see how any of this matters. This isn't a heavily regulated industry and there's very little barrier to entry. If you can save money on shipping by buying a bunch of Teslas and converting long hauls to relays, then someone will just do it regardless of whether the existing players are "ready to figure it out". Now, are there advantages? We'll see. A lot depends on what happens in the fuel markets in the coming years. But the long term trends point away from diesel for sure.

infecto 4y ago

No disagreement with what you said but hasn't the whole pitch for Tesla Semi been for short hauls right now? Short hauls make a ton of sense on paper, limited highway miles where energy use can be highest, lighter loads and more stop and go. With a ev semi it seems that you might be able to take a large part fleet maintenance out as well as fueling logistics.

user_named 4y ago
Explain why short hauls make sense. Your post doesn't show it.
- infecto 4y ago
  Probably just throwing food under the bridge but here we go. Short hauls: 1) Are at slower speeds which for most EVs means greater efficiency. 2) Have more stop and go driving which is more efficient in EVs compared to ICEs. I don't have the papers handy but IIRC there can be more pollutants generated in the acceleration phase of a vehicle, another reason EV makes sense for short hauls. 3) Park at the same facility at night which can have charging setup. Long hauls, unless specific corporate routes, do not have charging infrastructure.
  - user_named 4y ago
    1 goes for any vehicle. 2 yeah, nope no source. EVs weigh more and therefore pollute more when braking so should not be used in cities. 3 no advantage compared to combustion engines.
    - infecto 4y ago
      Ahhh you misunderstood my original statement. Sorry, thanks for taking care of the bridge though.

PM_me_your_math 4y ago

"Long haul" Just add a diesel generator to the back. Problem solved. :)

prmoustache 4y ago

Well this only create a market opportunity for a new software, or new software version. Imho the biggest global challenge is electric supply. And I mean globally, not US + Canada. If we want EV trucks and cars globally we need way more nuclear power than we have right now. It is all fun and nice to fill USA, Canada and some wealthy countries in Asia, Oceania and Europe with EVs. Will that change a lot in term of climaye change if other countries cannot develop and decent charging network, are struggling already with energy demand or still rely mostly on coal to produce electricity?

Ancapistani 4y ago

> And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays. Uh... I worked for one of the largest LTL companies in the US for years, and to my knowledge all of their road drivers were "home every night". Several runs out West were "hook and turn" - two trucks drive toward each other half the day, meet in the middle, swap trailers, and drive back home. Further, a 500mi range is starting to get awfully close to the "11 consecutive hour" DOT Hours of Service limits.

motoboi 4y ago

Look, you are missing the big picture here. Imagine a remote controlled truck and then, later, a fully autonomous truck. This is what Tesla is aiming for here, they just have to begin somewhere. This Semi is not a truck, is a data collection tool. For some customers in some settings this already make sense as it is, but the goal is hit the road and start collecting data as soon as possible. If that in mind, now imagine a fleet of 20 trucks being remotely monitored by a single driver. Does that make sense for you in terms of logistics and economics?

kolbe 4y ago

I can't take you seriously if you only cite the negatives and not the positives. There's $60k/year of fuel savings to be had here. Show why that isn't enough, rather than ignoring it.

taylodl 4y ago

The side of the equation you're ignoring is maintenance. Commercial fleets also have garages and FTE mechanics maintaining the vehicles in the fleet. That all costs money and needs to be factored into your cost analysis. I work for a large public utility generating electricity. We switched our fleet to electric trucks years ago, and not because we're an electric company - frankly our bean counters don't care about that! It all came down to lower operational costs, higher reliability, and vehicle longevity. Being an electric company we don't have to worry about charging infrastructure, but still - the electric vehicles proved to be significantly cheaper to operate, and not just in fuel costs.

throwaway69123 4y ago

If trucking is an no dispute single digit margin wouldn’t a double digit reduction in fuel cost create a massive competitive advantage

illiac786 4y ago

Diesel Trucks margin will go down as more and more regions make it financially less attractive to use diesel trucks. Then the prices for hauling will go u, infra will catch up, software will catch up too, and EVs will become the best choice. That’s how I expect this evolution to happen. Timelines are difficult to predict though. Looking at the current momentum I really expect the poitn where most new trucks are EV to happen within a couple of years at most, not a decade.