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> It could also be that extended lockdowns caused a ton of deaths Do you have any evidence at all that comes close to suggest this hypothesis, let alone substa

> It could also be that extended lockdowns caused a ton of deaths Do you have any evidence at all that comes close to suggest this hypothesis, let alone substantiate it?

danuker 4y ago
I'd say the discrepancy is quite the elephant in the room to explain for medical professionals. Edit: found an article investigating it: https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12913-021-07169-7 https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/... > An early response to Covid-19, including borders’ controls and a strong test and trace capacity, could improve epidemiological surveillance and minimize excess mortality, with stringent and lengthy lockdowns not providing a significant benefit.
ipsum2 4y ago
Not the person you're responding to, but here's one example: https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/03/1087542 https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/03/1087542. tl;dr: closing schools causes children in South Asia to not be treated for malnutrition and immunizations and have increased teen pregnancies with inadequate medical attention. Estimated 230,000 excess deaths. Read the PDF report for more details.
- kadoban 4y ago
  You appear to be blaming those estimated 230,000 excess deaths on lockdowns. The article blames the pandemic itself. That's not the same thing.
  - mughinn 4y ago
    Closing the schools is a lockdown measure, the pandemic didn't close the schools
    - kadoban 4y ago
      Alright, maybe I'm misreading it. Can you show me where it says that closing the schools caused 230,000 deaths? My reading was that those deaths are blamed on a combination of factors, few of which I'd think were due to voluntary lockdowns. The main ones appear to be a reduction in health services, with cause unstated. That's probably largely due to people being pulled into dealing with the pandemic itself and not enough resources to go around? And then it also raises "The region also suffered increased levels of unemployment, poverty and food insecurity due to the pandemic, further undermining public health, the report said"
      - mughinn 4y ago
        Saying the cause is "the pandemic" is to avoid pointing fingers >voluntary lockdowns Who's saying voluntary? >The report – which covered Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – also found that about 420 million children were out of school due to the pandemic and its related control measures. >“Given the cultural and social context of South Asia, the suspension of these services is deepening inequalities and is likely to lead to an increase in the number of maternal and neonatal deaths” This parts of the article specifically say the closing of schools is likely to cause an increase in deaths. And, again, the closing of schools is a lockdown measure, not something COVID did The article says that there was a drop on treatment of malnutrition and puts a number 228,000 of deaths on that cause, and in poorer countries this kind of things (along with family violence) are found primarily on schools by teachers. Which obviously can't happen when schools are closed >"The region also suffered increased levels of unemployment, poverty and food insecurity due to the pandemic, further undermining public health, the report said" Increased unemployment is a direct consequence of mandatory lockdowns
        kadoban 4y ago
        > The article says that there was a drop on treatment of malnutrition and puts a number 228,000 of deaths on that cause, and in poorer countries this kind of things (along with family violence) are found primarily on schools by teachers. Which obviously can't happen when schools are closed How much of that happens at school and how much is separate? The article doesn't say. Not to mention, closing schools doesn't mean that the government(s) couldn't provide healthcare services in other ways. If I lock my dining room and starve, I didn't starve because I locked the room. I starved because I stopped eating. > Increased unemployment is a direct consequence of mandatory lockdowns It's also a direct consequence of everyone stopping spending money or going anywhere on their own accord, because nobody wants to catch a deadly disease. It certainly seems probable that some deaths are directly attributable to lockdowns. This article doesn't give me much idea how many that would be though.
mughinn 4y ago
Increase in suicides https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(22)00182-1/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6... Increase in police brutality https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/covid19-lockdown-measures-have-exacerbated-racial-profiling-and-police-violence-says-report https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/covid19-lo... Delay or avoidance of medical care https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a4.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a4.htm This is without counting the huge economic downturn it caused and the pause on developing of small children Extended strict lockdowns were an incredible mistake, I didn't even think it was controversial
- _djo_ 4y ago
  None of those are calculated to come anywhere close to the excess deaths caused by COVID. Overall, suicide rates in most countries either dipped or remained the same. [0][1] Whether or not police brutality saw an increase, its effect on mortality was negligible at population levels. As for the delay or avoidance of medical care, which did have statistical impact, that has been as severe in places that didn't have severe lockdowns as for places that did. Turns out if the medical system and hospitals become overwhelmed with a novel disease that has an effect on their ability to perform regular treatment too. Very, very few places did extended strict lockdowns. [0] https://www.statnews.com/2021/11/16/the-pandemic-didnt-increase-suicides-that-shouldnt-be-a-surprise/ https://www.statnews.com/2021/11/16/the-pandemic-didnt-incre... [1] https://www.samaritans.org/about-samaritans/research-policy/coronavirus-and-suicide/one-year-on-data-on-covid-19/what-do-we-know-about-coronavirus-and-suicide-risk/ https://www.samaritans.org/about-samaritans/research-policy/...

> It could also be that extended lockdowns caused a ton of deaths Do you have any evidence at all that comes close to suggest this hypothesis, let alone substantiate it?

danuker 4y ago

I'd say the discrepancy is quite the elephant in the room to explain for medical professionals. Edit: found an article investigating it: https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12913-021-07169-7 https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/... > An early response to Covid-19, including borders’ controls and a strong test and trace capacity, could improve epidemiological surveillance and minimize excess mortality, with stringent and lengthy lockdowns not providing a significant benefit.

ipsum2 4y ago

Not the person you're responding to, but here's one example: https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/03/1087542 https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/03/1087542. tl;dr: closing schools causes children in South Asia to not be treated for malnutrition and immunizations and have increased teen pregnancies with inadequate medical attention. Estimated 230,000 excess deaths. Read the PDF report for more details.

kadoban 4y ago
You appear to be blaming those estimated 230,000 excess deaths on lockdowns. The article blames the pandemic itself. That's not the same thing.
- mughinn 4y ago
  Closing the schools is a lockdown measure, the pandemic didn't close the schools
  - kadoban 4y ago
    Alright, maybe I'm misreading it. Can you show me where it says that closing the schools caused 230,000 deaths? My reading was that those deaths are blamed on a combination of factors, few of which I'd think were due to voluntary lockdowns. The main ones appear to be a reduction in health services, with cause unstated. That's probably largely due to people being pulled into dealing with the pandemic itself and not enough resources to go around? And then it also raises "The region also suffered increased levels of unemployment, poverty and food insecurity due to the pandemic, further undermining public health, the report said"
    - mughinn 4y ago
      Saying the cause is "the pandemic" is to avoid pointing fingers >voluntary lockdowns Who's saying voluntary? >The report – which covered Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – also found that about 420 million children were out of school due to the pandemic and its related control measures. >“Given the cultural and social context of South Asia, the suspension of these services is deepening inequalities and is likely to lead to an increase in the number of maternal and neonatal deaths” This parts of the article specifically say the closing of schools is likely to cause an increase in deaths. And, again, the closing of schools is a lockdown measure, not something COVID did The article says that there was a drop on treatment of malnutrition and puts a number 228,000 of deaths on that cause, and in poorer countries this kind of things (along with family violence) are found primarily on schools by teachers. Which obviously can't happen when schools are closed >"The region also suffered increased levels of unemployment, poverty and food insecurity due to the pandemic, further undermining public health, the report said" Increased unemployment is a direct consequence of mandatory lockdowns
      - kadoban 4y ago
        > The article says that there was a drop on treatment of malnutrition and puts a number 228,000 of deaths on that cause, and in poorer countries this kind of things (along with family violence) are found primarily on schools by teachers. Which obviously can't happen when schools are closed How much of that happens at school and how much is separate? The article doesn't say. Not to mention, closing schools doesn't mean that the government(s) couldn't provide healthcare services in other ways. If I lock my dining room and starve, I didn't starve because I locked the room. I starved because I stopped eating. > Increased unemployment is a direct consequence of mandatory lockdowns It's also a direct consequence of everyone stopping spending money or going anywhere on their own accord, because nobody wants to catch a deadly disease. It certainly seems probable that some deaths are directly attributable to lockdowns. This article doesn't give me much idea how many that would be though.

mughinn 4y ago

Increase in suicides https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(22)00182-1/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6... Increase in police brutality https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/covid19-lockdown-measures-have-exacerbated-racial-profiling-and-police-violence-says-report https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/covid19-lo... Delay or avoidance of medical care https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a4.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a4.htm This is without counting the huge economic downturn it caused and the pause on developing of small children Extended strict lockdowns were an incredible mistake, I didn't even think it was controversial

_djo_ 4y ago
None of those are calculated to come anywhere close to the excess deaths caused by COVID. Overall, suicide rates in most countries either dipped or remained the same. [0][1] Whether or not police brutality saw an increase, its effect on mortality was negligible at population levels. As for the delay or avoidance of medical care, which did have statistical impact, that has been as severe in places that didn't have severe lockdowns as for places that did. Turns out if the medical system and hospitals become overwhelmed with a novel disease that has an effect on their ability to perform regular treatment too. Very, very few places did extended strict lockdowns. [0] https://www.statnews.com/2021/11/16/the-pandemic-didnt-increase-suicides-that-shouldnt-be-a-surprise/ https://www.statnews.com/2021/11/16/the-pandemic-didnt-incre... [1] https://www.samaritans.org/about-samaritans/research-policy/coronavirus-and-suicide/one-year-on-data-on-covid-19/what-do-we-know-about-coronavirus-and-suicide-risk/ https://www.samaritans.org/about-samaritans/research-policy/...