7 ms·

Poor Taiwanese people... their security insurance has just been cancelled. I wonder how many days after the first successful batches of chips coming out of the

Poor Taiwanese people... their security insurance has just been cancelled. I wonder how many days after the first successful batches of chips coming out of the Arizona fab will China invade Taiwan. I do hope not, but realistically: with high-end chips being made on US soil, the US will have very little interest in protecting Taiwan, apart from maybe blocking China from also acquiring the tech.

holoduke 4y ago
The current chip making machines in Taiwan are still very valuable for many years. They should not fall into the hands of China.
- neonihil 4y ago
  Yeah, that's what I'm hoping for.
AdamN 4y ago
This is a valid long term concern for Taiwan but 10+ years out.
- neonihil 4y ago
  I'm afraid there could be a hidden math behind this. As in: cost of a war with China vs. economic cost of China acquiring TSMC tech. As long as a war is cheaper, the US is protecting Taiwan. I'm no expert, but it usually comes down to something like this.
  - rado 4y ago
    US loves expensive faraway wars
    - 988747 4y ago
      They love wars against small third world countries that are easy to win. War with China is probably the only one that US can actually lose.
      - joshjje 4y ago
        Not in this lifetime. Unless you are talking about occupying China / storming their territory, that would not go well. But defeating China at sea and in the air and in other countries? They'd have no chance.
        HDThoreaun 4y ago
        China has 5 times as many people as the US. Their technology is behind, but they are modernizing and having 5 times as many resources and no public backlash to wasting soldiers lives goes a far way.
        988747 4y ago
        Some US generals disagree with you, especially when it comes to fight about Taiwan: https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/03/us-will-lose-fast-in-war-with-china-air-forces-simulation-shows-report/ https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/03/us-will-lose-fast-i...
      - barbacoa 4y ago
        As you can tell from the last few decades, winning wars is a secondary concern.
  - RealityVoid 4y ago
    I believe China would probably aquire a pile of rubble.
  - ekianjo 4y ago
    Since when does the US government care about costs exactly?
enkid 4y ago
The US has supported Taiwan's defense long before chips were made there. It's unlikely this fundamentally changes Taiwan's defensive position.
rapsey 4y ago
One plant does not change the game that much. You still need TSMC to keep working on whatever the next tech will be as well as all their current production in Taiwan which is fully booked.
- codedokode 4y ago
  As I understand, one plant is enough to copy all secrets of nanofabrication and build similar plants.
  - mrtweetyhack 4y ago
- lkbm 4y ago
  I agree that it's not a simple plant opens => China invades, but this does feel like we're starting to see the dominos line up. If it's about talent, it's a lot easier to quickly import people than to import a massive fab plant, and I assume we'll be building talent (either domestic or imported) as we build out the related infrastructure and industry. It would certainly be disruptive, but I assume part of the US's drive is to reduce dependency on Taiwan, and consequently exposure to the threat of China. If the US stops caring about Taiwan, it's both safer for China to invade Taiwan (less pushback from the US), and less geopolitically valuable (less damage to the US), but China's interests aren't focused entirely on the geopolitical when it comes to Taiwan.
  - itake 4y ago
    My cousin is doing a contract with TSMC. Basically they fly over 100 Americans per year to Taiwan and train them for 1-1.5years. Then they fly them back to the usa to work in the US factory. The problem is TW compensation and work conditions are terrible. Many of them quit before completely their agreements, so they aren’t actually training that many Americans.
jasonwatkinspdx 4y ago
First, your phrasing could read as concern trolling style gloating, which you probably didn't intend. China may invade Taiwan within my lifetime, but it won't be triggered by anything to do with TSMC. China and the US are both involved in the Taiwan conflict due to history, ideology, and current economic relationships. Nothing material about that changes with TSMC building facilities in the US. If anything US ties grow stronger. TSMC is not something China can acquire with military power. It's not a building in a RTS game you can just take over and operate yourself. It's a huge number of engineers and a globe spanning high tech supply chain. All that grinds to a halt the moment missiles fly into Taiwan.
stackbutterflow 4y ago
People really blow out of proportion the importance of TSMC. Taiwan is valuable to the west because of its strategic location. TSMC could disappear tomorrow and the US will still have to defend it. The day Taiwan fall is the day the US loses its dominance.
- mdp2021 4y ago
  > out of proportion As if TSMC were not absolutely critical. Samsung declares "we'd like to be able to match their capabilities" in public statements. You would need to develop more on the topic "a world without TSMC: solutions and fallbacks".

holoduke 4y ago

The current chip making machines in Taiwan are still very valuable for many years. They should not fall into the hands of China.

neonihil 4y ago
Yeah, that's what I'm hoping for.

AdamN 4y ago

This is a valid long term concern for Taiwan but 10+ years out.

neonihil 4y ago
I'm afraid there could be a hidden math behind this. As in: cost of a war with China vs. economic cost of China acquiring TSMC tech. As long as a war is cheaper, the US is protecting Taiwan. I'm no expert, but it usually comes down to something like this.
- rado 4y ago
  US loves expensive faraway wars
  - 988747 4y ago
    They love wars against small third world countries that are easy to win. War with China is probably the only one that US can actually lose.
    - joshjje 4y ago
      Not in this lifetime. Unless you are talking about occupying China / storming their territory, that would not go well. But defeating China at sea and in the air and in other countries? They'd have no chance.
      - HDThoreaun 4y ago
        China has 5 times as many people as the US. Their technology is behind, but they are modernizing and having 5 times as many resources and no public backlash to wasting soldiers lives goes a far way.
      - 988747 4y ago
        Some US generals disagree with you, especially when it comes to fight about Taiwan: https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/03/us-will-lose-fast-in-war-with-china-air-forces-simulation-shows-report/ https://americanmilitarynews.com/2021/03/us-will-lose-fast-i...
    - barbacoa 4y ago
      As you can tell from the last few decades, winning wars is a secondary concern.
- RealityVoid 4y ago
  I believe China would probably aquire a pile of rubble.
- ekianjo 4y ago
  Since when does the US government care about costs exactly?

enkid 4y ago

The US has supported Taiwan's defense long before chips were made there. It's unlikely this fundamentally changes Taiwan's defensive position.

rapsey 4y ago

One plant does not change the game that much. You still need TSMC to keep working on whatever the next tech will be as well as all their current production in Taiwan which is fully booked.

codedokode 4y ago
As I understand, one plant is enough to copy all secrets of nanofabrication and build similar plants.
- mrtweetyhack 4y ago
lkbm 4y ago
I agree that it's not a simple plant opens => China invades, but this does feel like we're starting to see the dominos line up. If it's about talent, it's a lot easier to quickly import people than to import a massive fab plant, and I assume we'll be building talent (either domestic or imported) as we build out the related infrastructure and industry. It would certainly be disruptive, but I assume part of the US's drive is to reduce dependency on Taiwan, and consequently exposure to the threat of China. If the US stops caring about Taiwan, it's both safer for China to invade Taiwan (less pushback from the US), and less geopolitically valuable (less damage to the US), but China's interests aren't focused entirely on the geopolitical when it comes to Taiwan.
- itake 4y ago
  My cousin is doing a contract with TSMC. Basically they fly over 100 Americans per year to Taiwan and train them for 1-1.5years. Then they fly them back to the usa to work in the US factory. The problem is TW compensation and work conditions are terrible. Many of them quit before completely their agreements, so they aren’t actually training that many Americans.

jasonwatkinspdx 4y ago

First, your phrasing could read as concern trolling style gloating, which you probably didn't intend. China may invade Taiwan within my lifetime, but it won't be triggered by anything to do with TSMC. China and the US are both involved in the Taiwan conflict due to history, ideology, and current economic relationships. Nothing material about that changes with TSMC building facilities in the US. If anything US ties grow stronger. TSMC is not something China can acquire with military power. It's not a building in a RTS game you can just take over and operate yourself. It's a huge number of engineers and a globe spanning high tech supply chain. All that grinds to a halt the moment missiles fly into Taiwan.

stackbutterflow 4y ago

People really blow out of proportion the importance of TSMC. Taiwan is valuable to the west because of its strategic location. TSMC could disappear tomorrow and the US will still have to defend it. The day Taiwan fall is the day the US loses its dominance.

mdp2021 4y ago
> out of proportion As if TSMC were not absolutely critical. Samsung declares "we'd like to be able to match their capabilities" in public statements. You would need to develop more on the topic "a world without TSMC: solutions and fallbacks".