5 ms·

The problem is that once they lift it up / fail to contain an outbreak, it will be a devastating one since their population isn't immunized.

by yreg 4y ago

agumonkey 4y ago
I'm stumped they didn't consider buying other vaccines. Maybe they don't want to be reliant on the west. They're indeed doing a mistake keep the lock strategy...
- Sakos 4y ago
  I think it's a combination of not enough Western production, no possibility of acquiring a local production license like India and the hit to their public image if they admit their vaccine isn't good enough. The current largest producer of mRNA vaccines is India, AFAIK, and most of that goes to India and the EU.
- GameOfFrowns 4y ago
  You'd think that with China's cavalier attitude towards intellectual property and trade secrets they would just copy one of the more effective mRNA vaccines and distribute it under the current Sinovax label.
  - chii 4y ago
    i do wonder how easy/hard it really is to reverse engineer a vaccine - and if it went wrong, some heads will roll. It's not like software piracy, where a perfect copy could be made.
    - hutzlibu 4y ago
      I think the "code" of the vaccines is pretty much open. It is the production line, that is complicated and hard to set up, if you want to achieve some quality vaccines.
    - GameOfFrowns 4y ago
      >i do wonder how easy/hard it really is to reverse engineer a vaccine I think it's easier to gain this information via hacking and data theft or paying insiders for documents than actually reversing the vaccine.
    - mensetmanusman 4y ago
      China had an unfortunate event where people were poorly reverse engineering baby formula so they poisoned a bunch of their own kids. People in China are still posted about that.
  - himinlomax 4y ago
    There's probably a lot of know how in the form of trade secrets on top of patents. And in any case, merely copying what's in the patents does not help you as far as certifications are concerned, it's almost impossible to get the exact same end product, and who knows how that turns out once injected.
  - agumonkey 4y ago
    There's also the russian vaccine, it seems a little better .. considering the context they could have made a deal to buy some.. In any case there are multiple paths available and so far they seem stuck on the failing one. It's strange.
- saint_fiasco 4y ago
  They have enough vaccines, they just can't persuade their vulnerable population to take it. Old people in particular don't trust modern medicine and don't trust the government. You know how some old people believe all sorts of conspiracy theories about the government? Because their government was actually evil during their lifetime, it becomes much harder for them to believe that this one time the government really does want to give them medicine for their own good.
  - mrtksn 4y ago
    Would't an actual evil government simply let the old population die and solve the demographics crisis? It's not like they depend on old peoples votes to stay in power. I have relatives in Bulgaria, a country with full access to all western vaccines thanks to EU but is among the least vaccinated countries in the world and among the top deaths of COVID-19 per capita. I was shocked when I visited Bulgaria once travel become possible. Everyone knew someone dead but they also were telling stories about this one person who went to get a vaccine and their veins turned blue and died shaking. People in villages were tellings tories how Bill Gates will monitor them or that the virus and the younger ones were saying that the vaccines are a sham and the governments orchestrated it to reduce the population(Bulgaria is also a top country in population decline, the government and EU are actually trying very hard to increase the population). When people want to believe things, they believe things.
    - ElevenLathe 4y ago
      > Would't an actual evil government simply let the old population die and solve the demographics crisis? It's not like they depend on old peoples votes to stay in power. The CCP may not be the Kiwanis Club but they're not the Legion of Doom either. It's not a democracy but they still need some degree of popular support, and letting everyone's grandparents die is not a great way to engender it.
  - leokennis 4y ago
    What I find hard to believe here is that the Chinese government seems very capable of locking down people (i.e. more or less forcing them to stay inside, with patrols and mandatory tests etc.) but somehow they are unable to force those same people to get vaccinated?
- whb07 4y ago
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - dahart 4y ago
    > Perhaps they know the risks of COVID and correctly weighed them to the risk of the shot Are you implying you think the known risks today of taking the Pfizer vaccine are equal or higher than that of catching COVID?
    - whb07 4y ago
      Well yes. Look at the increased mortality across the heavily vaccinated countries. German insurers are coming out saying there’s a non-COVID /non-standard “thing” that’s impacting people, in particular, males.
  - solumunus 4y ago
    > Perhaps they know the risks of COVID and correctly weighed them to the risk of the shot How could you possibly consider this as a possibility? We have enough data to see clearly, with no reasonable debate, that this is complete nonsense.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
dncornholio 4y ago
I think the biggest problem is lifting the measures indicates admitting mistake
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
rippercushions 4y ago
China has a 87% COVID vaccination rate, which is higher than the US (79%). However, the Chinese-made vaccines are not very effective, and many of the unvaccinated are elderly. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279024/china-coronavirus-covid-19- https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279024/china-coronaviru... vaccination-rate/
- yreg 4y ago
  Not just that, how many people in US already had covid and how many did in China?
  - kevingadd 4y ago
    You can get it more than once, though.
    - jahnu 4y ago
      It's even worse than that; hazard ratio increases significantly with each re-infection https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3
      - ejstronge 4y ago
        > It's even worse than that; hazard ratio increases significantly with each re-infection https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 I don’t think this paper is a great source for that idea - the ratio of people with one infection (440,000) to people with three or more infections (1,000) is so different that I wonder if demographics or behavioral characteristics differ between the groups. Empirically, their conclusion can’t really be true or each COVID-wave would be worse than the preceding one
        leoedin 4y ago
        I think most people I know have had it at least twice now - if symptoms were escalating with each infection it would be pretty big news.
zarzavat 4y ago
I don’t buy that. No other country was able to completely arrest the spread of COVID through lockdowns, even Australia and New Zealand which are islands surrounded by giant oceans were not able to stop the flood of infections. China borders 14 countries. If there’s “no COVID” it’s because it’s being suppressed, with or without Beijing’s knowledge.
- progrus 4y ago
  Consider what happens to peoples’ immune systems when you box them up in quarantine and spray them with disinfectant every day for a few years. It won’t be only COVID-19 popping when that artificial suppression ends. RSV, influenza, etc.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    What does disinfectant accomplish against respiratory viruses? I thought it was just for show.
    - yreg 4y ago
      You don't rub them into your face.
    - progrus 4y ago
      Isolation probably makes a much bigger difference, yes. The point stands though.
- bee_rider 4y ago
  NZ was pretty successful I thought. Didn’t they make an active decision to stop worrying so much about it after getting vaccines?
  - potatochup 4y ago
    NZs isolation policy couldn't keep out omicron. The upside was, by the time omicron showed up and started spreading around the population, most people were vaccinated, and deaths due to the original strain were very low (I think it was like 50 deaths? 150 maybe?). The country also had most of 2020 and early 2021 totally COVID free, so businesses like cafes, retail, didn't have as much of a shock
lost_tourist 4y ago
Now might be the time though since the major strains of covid seem much milder than the original one.

The problem is that once they lift it up / fail to contain an outbreak, it will be a devastating one since their population isn't immunized.

by yreg 4y ago

The problem is that once they lift it up / fail to contain an outbreak, it will be a devastating one since their population isn't immunized.

agumonkey 4y ago

I'm stumped they didn't consider buying other vaccines. Maybe they don't want to be reliant on the west. They're indeed doing a mistake keep the lock strategy...

Sakos 4y ago
I think it's a combination of not enough Western production, no possibility of acquiring a local production license like India and the hit to their public image if they admit their vaccine isn't good enough. The current largest producer of mRNA vaccines is India, AFAIK, and most of that goes to India and the EU.
GameOfFrowns 4y ago
You'd think that with China's cavalier attitude towards intellectual property and trade secrets they would just copy one of the more effective mRNA vaccines and distribute it under the current Sinovax label.
- chii 4y ago
  i do wonder how easy/hard it really is to reverse engineer a vaccine - and if it went wrong, some heads will roll. It's not like software piracy, where a perfect copy could be made.
  - hutzlibu 4y ago
    I think the "code" of the vaccines is pretty much open. It is the production line, that is complicated and hard to set up, if you want to achieve some quality vaccines.
  - GameOfFrowns 4y ago
    >i do wonder how easy/hard it really is to reverse engineer a vaccine I think it's easier to gain this information via hacking and data theft or paying insiders for documents than actually reversing the vaccine.
  - mensetmanusman 4y ago
    China had an unfortunate event where people were poorly reverse engineering baby formula so they poisoned a bunch of their own kids. People in China are still posted about that.
- himinlomax 4y ago
  There's probably a lot of know how in the form of trade secrets on top of patents. And in any case, merely copying what's in the patents does not help you as far as certifications are concerned, it's almost impossible to get the exact same end product, and who knows how that turns out once injected.
- agumonkey 4y ago
  There's also the russian vaccine, it seems a little better .. considering the context they could have made a deal to buy some.. In any case there are multiple paths available and so far they seem stuck on the failing one. It's strange.
saint_fiasco 4y ago
They have enough vaccines, they just can't persuade their vulnerable population to take it. Old people in particular don't trust modern medicine and don't trust the government. You know how some old people believe all sorts of conspiracy theories about the government? Because their government was actually evil during their lifetime, it becomes much harder for them to believe that this one time the government really does want to give them medicine for their own good.
- mrtksn 4y ago
  Would't an actual evil government simply let the old population die and solve the demographics crisis? It's not like they depend on old peoples votes to stay in power. I have relatives in Bulgaria, a country with full access to all western vaccines thanks to EU but is among the least vaccinated countries in the world and among the top deaths of COVID-19 per capita. I was shocked when I visited Bulgaria once travel become possible. Everyone knew someone dead but they also were telling stories about this one person who went to get a vaccine and their veins turned blue and died shaking. People in villages were tellings tories how Bill Gates will monitor them or that the virus and the younger ones were saying that the vaccines are a sham and the governments orchestrated it to reduce the population(Bulgaria is also a top country in population decline, the government and EU are actually trying very hard to increase the population). When people want to believe things, they believe things.
  - ElevenLathe 4y ago
    > Would't an actual evil government simply let the old population die and solve the demographics crisis? It's not like they depend on old peoples votes to stay in power. The CCP may not be the Kiwanis Club but they're not the Legion of Doom either. It's not a democracy but they still need some degree of popular support, and letting everyone's grandparents die is not a great way to engender it.
- leokennis 4y ago
  What I find hard to believe here is that the Chinese government seems very capable of locking down people (i.e. more or less forcing them to stay inside, with patrols and mandatory tests etc.) but somehow they are unable to force those same people to get vaccinated?
whb07 4y ago
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- dahart 4y ago
  > Perhaps they know the risks of COVID and correctly weighed them to the risk of the shot Are you implying you think the known risks today of taking the Pfizer vaccine are equal or higher than that of catching COVID?
  - whb07 4y ago
    Well yes. Look at the increased mortality across the heavily vaccinated countries. German insurers are coming out saying there’s a non-COVID /non-standard “thing” that’s impacting people, in particular, males.
- solumunus 4y ago
  > Perhaps they know the risks of COVID and correctly weighed them to the risk of the shot How could you possibly consider this as a possibility? We have enough data to see clearly, with no reasonable debate, that this is complete nonsense.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

dncornholio 4y ago

I think the biggest problem is lifting the measures indicates admitting mistake

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

rippercushions 4y ago

China has a 87% COVID vaccination rate, which is higher than the US (79%). However, the Chinese-made vaccines are not very effective, and many of the unvaccinated are elderly. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279024/china-coronavirus-covid-19- https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279024/china-coronaviru... vaccination-rate/

yreg 4y ago
Not just that, how many people in US already had covid and how many did in China?
- kevingadd 4y ago
  You can get it more than once, though.
  - jahnu 4y ago
    It's even worse than that; hazard ratio increases significantly with each re-infection https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3
    - ejstronge 4y ago
      > It's even worse than that; hazard ratio increases significantly with each re-infection https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 I don’t think this paper is a great source for that idea - the ratio of people with one infection (440,000) to people with three or more infections (1,000) is so different that I wonder if demographics or behavioral characteristics differ between the groups. Empirically, their conclusion can’t really be true or each COVID-wave would be worse than the preceding one
      - leoedin 4y ago
        I think most people I know have had it at least twice now - if symptoms were escalating with each infection it would be pretty big news.

zarzavat 4y ago

I don’t buy that. No other country was able to completely arrest the spread of COVID through lockdowns, even Australia and New Zealand which are islands surrounded by giant oceans were not able to stop the flood of infections. China borders 14 countries. If there’s “no COVID” it’s because it’s being suppressed, with or without Beijing’s knowledge.

progrus 4y ago
Consider what happens to peoples’ immune systems when you box them up in quarantine and spray them with disinfectant every day for a few years. It won’t be only COVID-19 popping when that artificial suppression ends. RSV, influenza, etc.
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  What does disinfectant accomplish against respiratory viruses? I thought it was just for show.
  - yreg 4y ago
    You don't rub them into your face.
  - progrus 4y ago
    Isolation probably makes a much bigger difference, yes. The point stands though.
bee_rider 4y ago
NZ was pretty successful I thought. Didn’t they make an active decision to stop worrying so much about it after getting vaccines?
- potatochup 4y ago
  NZs isolation policy couldn't keep out omicron. The upside was, by the time omicron showed up and started spreading around the population, most people were vaccinated, and deaths due to the original strain were very low (I think it was like 50 deaths? 150 maybe?). The country also had most of 2020 and early 2021 totally COVID free, so businesses like cafes, retail, didn't have as much of a shock

lost_tourist 4y ago

Now might be the time though since the major strains of covid seem much milder than the original one.