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“If everybody tried, Usain Bolt would be ranked #1000 or perhaps even lower.” I’m skeptical. The people who do become professionals are heavily weighted toward

“If everybody tried, Usain Bolt would be ranked #1000 or perhaps even lower.” I’m skeptical. The people who do become professionals are heavily weighted towards the fastest runners. People naturally gravitate towards what they’re best at.

jamiek88 4y ago
Yeah and running isn’t like say hockey where you need a load of equipment and a certain socioeconomic background to play. Literally every kid runs. Some are faster than others and some enjoy it more.
- amelius 4y ago
  And some have older friends who are faster, and thus they give up and try something else.
trynewideas 4y ago
As someone who follows soccer in the US, and specifically women's sports, there are some absolutely _fascinating_ reasons why that statement is way more complicated than it looks. There are so many factors — the means to access even rudimentary safe training and recovery, happenstance discovery by coaches or organizations, connections through friends and family — that leave me always wondering how many athletic talents simply don't pursue it. SI ran a fantastic story[1] about Naomi Girma, a top young talent who's already cemented a starting position on the US women's national team, the holding and four-time World Cup champions. Considering the size and depth of the US talent pool, itself massive due to the relative dearth of women's team sports and the accessibility fostered by Title IX, and likewise also rife with abuse and corruption, the USWNT is arguably one of the world's hardest soccer teams to become a starter for. Girma had none of the advantages of many of her teammates. She's Black, which is still uncommon on the USWNT and even less common among natural defenders. She's the daughter of an Ethiopian refugee and another Ethiopian immigrant, another rarity. She was discovered by a travel team — often difficult to join and expensive youth clubs — while playing at a YMCA, and stayed on a worse-performing team because she relied on getting rides from a friend's family on that team. When it was overwhelmingly evident that she belonged on the better team, the team itself covered her rides to practice because her parents couldn't — in part by a parent driving Girma to a private school for pickup. Her coach promoted a feeder program to the youth national teams to her, without which neither Girma nor her parents would have any idea what her ceiling would be. > “You know, my parents had no idea about the college recruiting process. They didn’t even know how to get me onto a club team. Even, like, what is AYSO? The concept of rec—all these little things—you have to learn that, and if you didn’t grow up here, why would you ever know what AYSO is? You’re not going to look that up. So I feel like a lot of things fell in place on my path because of the people I was surrounded by, and I’m extremely thankful for that, because I know I would probably just still be playing at the park on Saturdays—still having fun, but I wouldn’t have gotten where I am today.” She went on to get a full-ride scholarship to Stanford, won national championships, became a first-overall draft pick in the US pro NWSL, and started for a San Diego expansion team that went to the semifinals in its first year. Girma was Rookie of the Year. She's considered a lock for the 2023 World Cup roster, playing for the defending world champions. Her contemporaries as exciting young talents are in stark contrast: Sophia Smith, this year's league MVP and USWNT teammate, came up through a sports family where her mother, unlike Girma's, could afford to quit her job to cover the three-hour practice commute. She also had the advantages of a Colorado youth system that produced several other USWNTers.[2] Trinity Rodman is Dennis Rodman's daughter (itself a complex and fraught oversimplification of her relationship[3]). Olivia Moultrie's family was rich enough to build her a sophisticated practice facility, complete with her own pitch, as a pre-teen on her way to a Nike sponsorship and pro contract at 15.[4] But if Girma didn't have a friend on a youth team who's mom would give her a ride to practice? If, instead of a supportive coach, she had an abusive one?[5] By her own estimation, she might still be playing weekend ball in a park with her dad. Bolt's story is extremely well documented. But on top of the talent, and on top of the work to excel, to think there aren't hundreds of other kids out of billions with that same potential is difficult to reconcile. A faster kid, a better soccer player, a better wide receiver, a more clever pitcher might just not have a mom who can get them to practice. [1]: https://www.si.com/soccer/2022/06/29/naomi-girma-san-diego-wave-uswnt-daily-cover https://www.si.com/soccer/2022/06/29/naomi-girma-san-diego-w... [2]: https://www.today.com/parents/dads/trinity-rodman-opens-relationship-dad-dennis-rodman-rcna5075 https://www.today.com/parents/dads/trinity-rodman-opens-rela... [3]: https://www.today.com/parents/dads/trinity-rodman-opens-relationship-dad-dennis-rodman-rcna5075 https://www.today.com/parents/dads/trinity-rodman-opens-rela... [4]: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/soccer-pro-olivia-moultrie-on-the-pursuit-of-goals https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/soccer-pro-olivia-moultrie... [5]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/02/08/rory-dames-eclipse-select-misconduct-allegations/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/02/08/rory-dames-...
- danenania 4y ago
  It's definitely an interesting thought experiment! A key question is how extreme outliers like Bolt are distributed. There's certainly a chance that there are others in his cohort who match or exceed his genetic potential, but 1000? I also don't think you can assume the greatest outlier who has been discovered would be significantly exceeded by others who weren't discovered. If they could be better, my intuition is it would be by a very small margin.
- mingusrude 4y ago
  I think it becomes even more obvious with team sports. Among males, Sweden is a top-tier ice hockey-nation but an absolutely disgrace in rugby while the opposite is true for New Zealand. There's a significant overlap in the talent pool for ice hockey players and rugby players so there's no reason why Sweden and New Zealand would be equals in ice hockey and rugby. Access to the sport makes all the difference.
  - williamcotton 4y ago
    As someone who grew up playing some backyard hockey, access to frozen ponds helps as well! ;)
irjustin 4y ago
There is some merit. Lots of people don't have the opportunity due to poverty, lack of access to good coaches, good competition, etc etc. Would Bolt be #1000? Dunno, but if this were the multiverse then yes there is always someone better.
- danenania 4y ago
  Well, Bolt himself was born into a poor family. Someone who has the genetic potential to be that fast is going to spend their whole early life being the fastest kid anyone around them has ever seen. Sure, some might not pursue it seriously for whatever reason, but any kid with that much inborn talent is going to know that they are fast, and others will know it too--that kind of thing gets noticed. It's a bit like if a 12 year old is 6'6" and athletic... there's a pretty high chance someone is going to try to teach that kid to play basketball.
  - sarchertech 4y ago
    I think you’re overestimating the difference between an elite runner and the average (fit) person. Usain Bolt is only about 15-20% faster than a decent high school runner. The difference was even less when Bolt was in high school. That kind of difference isn’t even noticeable unless you’re timing it or racing. It’s not something that’s immediately obvious to everyone.
    - somenameforme 4y ago
      "Only" is not an appropriate term there. Everybody races when they're a kid, and it tends to be a win a bit, lose a bit, and always by a margin of couple of steps. Beating somebody by even 5% is an unbelievably huge margin in a race that is extremely visible. In a 40 second race a 5% margin would be 2 seconds - enough to quickly turn around, sit down, and feign some yawns as you wait for the #2 guy to come in. A 20% margin? That'd be 8 seconds in a 40 second event. It'd look plainly comical.
      - sarchertech 4y ago

jamiek88 4y ago

Yeah and running isn’t like say hockey where you need a load of equipment and a certain socioeconomic background to play. Literally every kid runs. Some are faster than others and some enjoy it more.

amelius 4y ago
And some have older friends who are faster, and thus they give up and try something else.

trynewideas 4y ago

As someone who follows soccer in the US, and specifically women's sports, there are some absolutely _fascinating_ reasons why that statement is way more complicated than it looks. There are so many factors — the means to access even rudimentary safe training and recovery, happenstance discovery by coaches or organizations, connections through friends and family — that leave me always wondering how many athletic talents simply don't pursue it. SI ran a fantastic story[1] about Naomi Girma, a top young talent who's already cemented a starting position on the US women's national team, the holding and four-time World Cup champions. Considering the size and depth of the US talent pool, itself massive due to the relative dearth of women's team sports and the accessibility fostered by Title IX, and likewise also rife with abuse and corruption, the USWNT is arguably one of the world's hardest soccer teams to become a starter for. Girma had none of the advantages of many of her teammates. She's Black, which is still uncommon on the USWNT and even less common among natural defenders. She's the daughter of an Ethiopian refugee and another Ethiopian immigrant, another rarity. She was discovered by a travel team — often difficult to join and expensive youth clubs — while playing at a YMCA, and stayed on a worse-performing team because she relied on getting rides from a friend's family on that team. When it was overwhelmingly evident that she belonged on the better team, the team itself covered her rides to practice because her parents couldn't — in part by a parent driving Girma to a private school for pickup. Her coach promoted a feeder program to the youth national teams to her, without which neither Girma nor her parents would have any idea what her ceiling would be. > “You know, my parents had no idea about the college recruiting process. They didn’t even know how to get me onto a club team. Even, like, what is AYSO? The concept of rec—all these little things—you have to learn that, and if you didn’t grow up here, why would you ever know what AYSO is? You’re not going to look that up. So I feel like a lot of things fell in place on my path because of the people I was surrounded by, and I’m extremely thankful for that, because I know I would probably just still be playing at the park on Saturdays—still having fun, but I wouldn’t have gotten where I am today.” She went on to get a full-ride scholarship to Stanford, won national championships, became a first-overall draft pick in the US pro NWSL, and started for a San Diego expansion team that went to the semifinals in its first year. Girma was Rookie of the Year. She's considered a lock for the 2023 World Cup roster, playing for the defending world champions. Her contemporaries as exciting young talents are in stark contrast: Sophia Smith, this year's league MVP and USWNT teammate, came up through a sports family where her mother, unlike Girma's, could afford to quit her job to cover the three-hour practice commute. She also had the advantages of a Colorado youth system that produced several other USWNTers.[2] Trinity Rodman is Dennis Rodman's daughter (itself a complex and fraught oversimplification of her relationship[3]). Olivia Moultrie's family was rich enough to build her a sophisticated practice facility, complete with her own pitch, as a pre-teen on her way to a Nike sponsorship and pro contract at 15.[4] But if Girma didn't have a friend on a youth team who's mom would give her a ride to practice? If, instead of a supportive coach, she had an abusive one?[5] By her own estimation, she might still be playing weekend ball in a park with her dad. Bolt's story is extremely well documented. But on top of the talent, and on top of the work to excel, to think there aren't hundreds of other kids out of billions with that same potential is difficult to reconcile. A faster kid, a better soccer player, a better wide receiver, a more clever pitcher might just not have a mom who can get them to practice. [1]: https://www.si.com/soccer/2022/06/29/naomi-girma-san-diego-wave-uswnt-daily-cover https://www.si.com/soccer/2022/06/29/naomi-girma-san-diego-w... [2]: https://www.today.com/parents/dads/trinity-rodman-opens-relationship-dad-dennis-rodman-rcna5075 https://www.today.com/parents/dads/trinity-rodman-opens-rela... [3]: https://www.today.com/parents/dads/trinity-rodman-opens-relationship-dad-dennis-rodman-rcna5075 https://www.today.com/parents/dads/trinity-rodman-opens-rela... [4]: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/soccer-pro-olivia-moultrie-on-the-pursuit-of-goals https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/soccer-pro-olivia-moultrie... [5]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/02/08/rory-dames-eclipse-select-misconduct-allegations/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/02/08/rory-dames-...

danenania 4y ago
It's definitely an interesting thought experiment! A key question is how extreme outliers like Bolt are distributed. There's certainly a chance that there are others in his cohort who match or exceed his genetic potential, but 1000? I also don't think you can assume the greatest outlier who has been discovered would be significantly exceeded by others who weren't discovered. If they could be better, my intuition is it would be by a very small margin.
mingusrude 4y ago
I think it becomes even more obvious with team sports. Among males, Sweden is a top-tier ice hockey-nation but an absolutely disgrace in rugby while the opposite is true for New Zealand. There's a significant overlap in the talent pool for ice hockey players and rugby players so there's no reason why Sweden and New Zealand would be equals in ice hockey and rugby. Access to the sport makes all the difference.
- williamcotton 4y ago
  As someone who grew up playing some backyard hockey, access to frozen ponds helps as well! ;)

irjustin 4y ago

There is some merit. Lots of people don't have the opportunity due to poverty, lack of access to good coaches, good competition, etc etc. Would Bolt be #1000? Dunno, but if this were the multiverse then yes there is always someone better.

danenania 4y ago
Well, Bolt himself was born into a poor family. Someone who has the genetic potential to be that fast is going to spend their whole early life being the fastest kid anyone around them has ever seen. Sure, some might not pursue it seriously for whatever reason, but any kid with that much inborn talent is going to know that they are fast, and others will know it too--that kind of thing gets noticed. It's a bit like if a 12 year old is 6'6" and athletic... there's a pretty high chance someone is going to try to teach that kid to play basketball.
- sarchertech 4y ago
  I think you’re overestimating the difference between an elite runner and the average (fit) person. Usain Bolt is only about 15-20% faster than a decent high school runner. The difference was even less when Bolt was in high school. That kind of difference isn’t even noticeable unless you’re timing it or racing. It’s not something that’s immediately obvious to everyone.
  - somenameforme 4y ago
    "Only" is not an appropriate term there. Everybody races when they're a kid, and it tends to be a win a bit, lose a bit, and always by a margin of couple of steps. Beating somebody by even 5% is an unbelievably huge margin in a race that is extremely visible. In a 40 second race a 5% margin would be 2 seconds - enough to quickly turn around, sit down, and feign some yawns as you wait for the #2 guy to come in. A 20% margin? That'd be 8 seconds in a 40 second event. It'd look plainly comical.
    - sarchertech 4y ago