Without more detail this just sounds like a conspiracy theory. Hiring a former regulator is way too weak a link to conclude that Kalshi are pulling the strings

Without more detail this just sounds like a conspiracy theory. Hiring a former regulator is way too weak a link to conclude that Kalshi are pulling the strings at the current regulator. If PI were operating on the basis of a no action letter they were unregulated pretty much by definition. A no action letter is basically a regulator saying that it won't take action against a market participant for doing things that would otherwise merit regulatory action. (I'm not affiliated with any of these parties, just going by what I read in the comments and the various publications from CFTC.)