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This is awesome; prediction markets have made massive strides recently, with applications and implementations being useful from crypto to sports to politics. I
by Jerrrry 4y ago
This is awesome; prediction markets have made massive strides recently, with applications and implementations being useful from crypto to sports to politics.
I'm surprised if there wasn't already a pool of smart contracts out there basically already emulating the space.
The obvious first principled questions come to mind: definition ambiguity in the event and thus result, the Oracle problem confounds this by essentially either giving leeway to the market deciders or by using a concrete agreed upon source of truth, such as data published to .Gov domains and other government/market API's.
The need for human capital to moderate/adjudicate claims is apparent, but would vary per domain. No need for a human to decide on public CPI data (assuming no wrongdoing or mispublishing on the .gov part), and this could be further minimized by making clearer positions/events that eventually are glued to a dedicated Oracle API.
Definitely an area that could be implemented quickly but haphazardly in an unregulated/cryptobro fashion via tokens and smart contracts, but cool to see its been developed above the table.
Cool economic calendar too, I have been looking for exactly this.
https://kalshi.com/economic-calendar https://kalshi.com/economic-calendar
- tmansour 4y agoGlad you find the economic calendar useful. We're currently thinking of ways to improve/expand it...any events you'd like to see on there? There are definitely areas where automating market resolutions/creating smart contracts can be useful....the most important thing is having a very well-defined contract upfront, so that outcomes are clear, the validators are authoritative, and unexpected edge cases don't come up. This is something we spend a lot of time thinking about when listing markets.
- matkoniecz 4y ago> prediction markets have made massive strides recently Note that Kalshi lobbied to shut down its competition (PredictIt), so overall benefits are not clear.