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Proposed Scottish independence is 12 months away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#2023_proposed_referendum https:

Proposed Scottish independence is 12 months away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#2023_proposed_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_indep... > In July 2022, the Scottish Greens announced that, if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead General elections are 25 months away. Labour is up 30 points in the polls or something like that. Brexit probably didn't help the UK economy but the economical ramifications of the Ukraine war haven't even begun to unfurl yet. Hard to take polls two years out seriously no matter how huge the margin is and yet if these things don't somehow resolve that will be a general election for the history books. The UK will simply never be the same again. I don't have a horse in this race but it is pretty clear that Labour surfing such a populistic wave, given their current rhetoric, will turn the place into an actual banana republic. (People no doubt will get bent out of shape about this because of political ideologies but the observation is simply about populism) Much as it pains me to say it, the French will become the new UK. And England will become like Italy.

blibble 4y ago
> Proposed Scottish independence is 12 months away. the SNP have been saying this since the first vote in 2014
- recuter 4y ago
  A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. But the key point is 'if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead'. If an actual referendum was allowed and held today it would perhaps be a toss up. But two harsh winters from now if the economy is still spiraling it will be a foregone conclusion. Point being why would anyone invest in Scotland or the rest of the UK during such tumultuous times? And this political instability is set to continue for years and years now.
  - blibble 4y ago
    > A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. But the key point is 'if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead'. to what end? with no agreement from the UK government nothing will happen > Point being why would anyone invest in Scotland or the rest of the UK during such tumultuous times? there's no doubt it hurts investment in Scotland however its economic impact on leaving the UK would be more or less a non-event for the rest of the UK (Scotland's share of UK GDP being less than the UK's share of EU GDP)
    - recuter 4y ago
      > to what end? with no agreement from the UK government nothing will happen Obviously to exploit anti-union sentiments for political gain. > however its economic impact on leaving the UK would be more or less a non-event for the rest of the UK It would be followed by Ireland and the end of the union. England will find itself with a smaller population than Italy and similarly mired in political instability and infighting. The difference between vying for the #1 economy in Europe and #4 is quite profound.
      - blibble 4y ago
        > Obviously to exploit anti-union sentiments for political gain. and how effective has this been? if the UK government doesn't permit it: it doesn't happen, end of story. > It would be followed by Ireland and the end of the union. I have news for you, Ireland left in 1921 (if England does end up being independent again its citizens would be significantly better off as the subsidy to the other parts of the UK are quite considerable)
        recuter 4y ago
        > if England does end up being independent again its citizens would be significantly better off as the subsidy to the other parts of the UK are quite considerable Great. I hope so, I have no idea. But it won't be the UK anymore. Very different place in the world and very different internal politics. Maybe it will become like a mini-US but without the natural resources and economical clout.. doesn't seem promising.
  - stavros 4y ago
    > A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. I don't think I've heard this proverb used to justify vague predictions before. It's always been the (proper) meaning of "you were right, but only by accident". It's interesting to see it used in a "I know we've been saying that for eight years, but we'll be right at SOME point!" way.
    - recuter 4y ago
      The original is even a broken clock is right twice a day. Meaning sometimes clueless people eventually end up accidentally correct. At least that is my understanding of the proverb, I might just be a blind squirrel.
      - stavros 4y ago
        Yeah, that's my understanding as well. Maybe I misunderstood your usage of it, which, on re-reading your comment, seems likely.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Which wasn’t that far from succeeding, at 44%. Since then, they were made to leave the EU, the Queen died, and the party that proposed it has done well electorally.
  - mike_hearn 4y ago
    The party that proposed it did well electorally last time too. Apparently there are lots of people in Scotland who vote for the SNP without fully agreeing with their goals. I'm neutral on the topic of Scottish independence but from a purely tactical perspective it'd be surprising if another referendum could be won at the moment. Sturgeon appears to know that and looks a lot like she's trying to string the SNP base along by claiming to want one without actually getting another referendum. Problems any new campaign would face: - The EU. It could be mostly ignored last time. A large part of the SNP base is pro-EU and wants to join as a separate country, whilst another large part of the SNP base is genuinely pro-independence and wants Scotland to be ruled by Scots. These two positions can't be reconciled. EU membership means rule from Brussels. The SNP is theoretically an independence party but would be campaigning on a vision of gaining full independence and then immediately attempting to give it up again, and this would create weaknesses that any competent pro-union campaign would presumably exploit. The hard border and being required to join the Euro would also be a new requirement that wasn't a part of the debate last time. - Relatedly the financial situation is now worse than before and the EU might not want Scotland as a consequence, as it would be expected to replace the UK's massive subsidies. Joining can take years, in the meantime it would require severe austerity measures to stabilize the new state's finances. - The SNP has never resolved many of the open issues that caused them to lose last time. What currency would they use, would there be access to the BBC and other infrastructure, border issues, North Sea decomm etc. These questions had clearly been left to the last minute and the pro-union side hammered that fact to great effect. Yet they don't seem to have got much further with the planning since. Tactically this just strengthens the unionist attack line that the SNP don't really want independence - if they did, surely they would be obsessive about all the things they'd do differently after leaving the UK and would have whole libraries devoted to the topic. If the SNP want to force and win another referendum they need to start having these discussions with their supporters, even if they're unpleasant (e.g. adopting the Euro is generally unpopular).
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
jmyeet 4y ago
As much as I think Brexit was (and is) a disaster that was really just a reactionary vote against immigration (particularly POlish immigration), I think "Scexit" is a mistake and fail for the same reasons that there will be Ireland reunification. Land borders. In Northern Ireland this creates a problem because you eitehr have to have a customs border between NI and the Republic of Ireland or between NI and Great Britain. The first can't really happen. The second is more natural but separates the Unionists (Protestants) from the UK but it's the only practical solution. Combine this with the Republican (Catholics) population growing faster than the Unionists and Brexit has made reunification essentially inevitable. So imagine how "Scexit" would work. A hard border between Scotland and England? It's almost as unworkable as a border between NI and Eire. This is really why Scexit has failed and that'll continue to be the case.
- fweimer 4y ago
  Not every border has to be a hard border. The Scottish border would not necessarily have to change at first because an independent Scotland would not be automatically part of the EU or even the Schengen area. If Scotland wants to join and the status of Great Britain is still not clear by then, then that's another border issue to resolve. The situation with Northern Ireland is different because Ireland is part of the EU, and no one wants Northern Ireland mainly as a smuggling route between the EU and Great Britain. It has crossed my mind that some folks must have thought about smuggling/regulatory arbitrage as some sort of Brexit dividend for the UK as a whole, but so far this doesn't seem to be happening.
  - messe 4y ago
    > The situation with Northern Ireland is different because Ireland is part of the EU It's also significantly worse, as there's only around 25 scotland-england border crossings, whereas there are over 200 border crossings between NI and ROI (more than on the entire eastern border of the EU).
  - physicsguy 4y ago
    > The Scottish border would not necessarily have to change at first because an independent Scotland would not be automatically part of the EU or even the Schengen area The rUK government is likely to be as bloody minded as the EU has been and acting in it's own perceived interest (which is not purely financial). It would be able to make things very difficult for an independent Scotland if it so wanted.
asdadsdad 4y ago
Italy without the food, the cars, the fashion, the charming language and the weather? =)

blibble 4y ago

> Proposed Scottish independence is 12 months away. the SNP have been saying this since the first vote in 2014

recuter 4y ago
A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. But the key point is 'if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead'. If an actual referendum was allowed and held today it would perhaps be a toss up. But two harsh winters from now if the economy is still spiraling it will be a foregone conclusion. Point being why would anyone invest in Scotland or the rest of the UK during such tumultuous times? And this political instability is set to continue for years and years now.
- blibble 4y ago
  > A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. But the key point is 'if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead'. to what end? with no agreement from the UK government nothing will happen > Point being why would anyone invest in Scotland or the rest of the UK during such tumultuous times? there's no doubt it hurts investment in Scotland however its economic impact on leaving the UK would be more or less a non-event for the rest of the UK (Scotland's share of UK GDP being less than the UK's share of EU GDP)
  - recuter 4y ago
    > to what end? with no agreement from the UK government nothing will happen Obviously to exploit anti-union sentiments for political gain. > however its economic impact on leaving the UK would be more or less a non-event for the rest of the UK It would be followed by Ireland and the end of the union. England will find itself with a smaller population than Italy and similarly mired in political instability and infighting. The difference between vying for the #1 economy in Europe and #4 is quite profound.
    - blibble 4y ago
      > Obviously to exploit anti-union sentiments for political gain. and how effective has this been? if the UK government doesn't permit it: it doesn't happen, end of story. > It would be followed by Ireland and the end of the union. I have news for you, Ireland left in 1921 (if England does end up being independent again its citizens would be significantly better off as the subsidy to the other parts of the UK are quite considerable)
      - recuter 4y ago
        > if England does end up being independent again its citizens would be significantly better off as the subsidy to the other parts of the UK are quite considerable Great. I hope so, I have no idea. But it won't be the UK anymore. Very different place in the world and very different internal politics. Maybe it will become like a mini-US but without the natural resources and economical clout.. doesn't seem promising.
- stavros 4y ago
  > A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. I don't think I've heard this proverb used to justify vague predictions before. It's always been the (proper) meaning of "you were right, but only by accident". It's interesting to see it used in a "I know we've been saying that for eight years, but we'll be right at SOME point!" way.
  - recuter 4y ago
    The original is even a broken clock is right twice a day. Meaning sometimes clueless people eventually end up accidentally correct. At least that is my understanding of the proverb, I might just be a blind squirrel.
    - stavros 4y ago
      Yeah, that's my understanding as well. Maybe I misunderstood your usage of it, which, on re-reading your comment, seems likely.
ceejayoz 4y ago
Which wasn’t that far from succeeding, at 44%. Since then, they were made to leave the EU, the Queen died, and the party that proposed it has done well electorally.
- mike_hearn 4y ago
  The party that proposed it did well electorally last time too. Apparently there are lots of people in Scotland who vote for the SNP without fully agreeing with their goals. I'm neutral on the topic of Scottish independence but from a purely tactical perspective it'd be surprising if another referendum could be won at the moment. Sturgeon appears to know that and looks a lot like she's trying to string the SNP base along by claiming to want one without actually getting another referendum. Problems any new campaign would face: - The EU. It could be mostly ignored last time. A large part of the SNP base is pro-EU and wants to join as a separate country, whilst another large part of the SNP base is genuinely pro-independence and wants Scotland to be ruled by Scots. These two positions can't be reconciled. EU membership means rule from Brussels. The SNP is theoretically an independence party but would be campaigning on a vision of gaining full independence and then immediately attempting to give it up again, and this would create weaknesses that any competent pro-union campaign would presumably exploit. The hard border and being required to join the Euro would also be a new requirement that wasn't a part of the debate last time. - Relatedly the financial situation is now worse than before and the EU might not want Scotland as a consequence, as it would be expected to replace the UK's massive subsidies. Joining can take years, in the meantime it would require severe austerity measures to stabilize the new state's finances. - The SNP has never resolved many of the open issues that caused them to lose last time. What currency would they use, would there be access to the BBC and other infrastructure, border issues, North Sea decomm etc. These questions had clearly been left to the last minute and the pro-union side hammered that fact to great effect. Yet they don't seem to have got much further with the planning since. Tactically this just strengthens the unionist attack line that the SNP don't really want independence - if they did, surely they would be obsessive about all the things they'd do differently after leaving the UK and would have whole libraries devoted to the topic. If the SNP want to force and win another referendum they need to start having these discussions with their supporters, even if they're unpleasant (e.g. adopting the Euro is generally unpopular).
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

jmyeet 4y ago

As much as I think Brexit was (and is) a disaster that was really just a reactionary vote against immigration (particularly POlish immigration), I think "Scexit" is a mistake and fail for the same reasons that there will be Ireland reunification. Land borders. In Northern Ireland this creates a problem because you eitehr have to have a customs border between NI and the Republic of Ireland or between NI and Great Britain. The first can't really happen. The second is more natural but separates the Unionists (Protestants) from the UK but it's the only practical solution. Combine this with the Republican (Catholics) population growing faster than the Unionists and Brexit has made reunification essentially inevitable. So imagine how "Scexit" would work. A hard border between Scotland and England? It's almost as unworkable as a border between NI and Eire. This is really why Scexit has failed and that'll continue to be the case.

fweimer 4y ago
Not every border has to be a hard border. The Scottish border would not necessarily have to change at first because an independent Scotland would not be automatically part of the EU or even the Schengen area. If Scotland wants to join and the status of Great Britain is still not clear by then, then that's another border issue to resolve. The situation with Northern Ireland is different because Ireland is part of the EU, and no one wants Northern Ireland mainly as a smuggling route between the EU and Great Britain. It has crossed my mind that some folks must have thought about smuggling/regulatory arbitrage as some sort of Brexit dividend for the UK as a whole, but so far this doesn't seem to be happening.
- messe 4y ago
  > The situation with Northern Ireland is different because Ireland is part of the EU It's also significantly worse, as there's only around 25 scotland-england border crossings, whereas there are over 200 border crossings between NI and ROI (more than on the entire eastern border of the EU).
- physicsguy 4y ago
  > The Scottish border would not necessarily have to change at first because an independent Scotland would not be automatically part of the EU or even the Schengen area The rUK government is likely to be as bloody minded as the EU has been and acting in it's own perceived interest (which is not purely financial). It would be able to make things very difficult for an independent Scotland if it so wanted.

asdadsdad 4y ago

Italy without the food, the cars, the fashion, the charming language and the weather? =)