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I genuinely fear for the UK. It's going to be a very different country in ten years, and I fear it will be a weaker, poorer and more divided one. I don't know

I genuinely fear for the UK. It's going to be a very different country in ten years, and I fear it will be a weaker, poorer and more divided one. I don't know for sure what the main cause of our current problems is, but I know that it's not a single issue. Brexit, Covid-19 and the war with Russia – not one of these issues alone is the cause of our problems. My hope for the country rests in the fact that it still has wonderful, tough, resourceful people in it, and that it has survived worse catastrophes than this in the past, and come out okay.

IMTDb 4y ago
> I know that it's not a single issue. Brexit, Covid-19 and the war with Russia – not one of these issues alone is the cause of our problems. Only one of these issue is UK specific tho; so either your fears extend to the rest of Europe and/or the western world, or you can pinpoint the cause of your anxiety.
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  Exactly. All of Europe, and the world really, has had to deal with the pain (both economic and in lives) of Covid and the war in Ukraine. But the severity of UK's problems are solely of their own making and are pretty much entirely due to Brexit, and the fallout from Brexit that caused by a string of ill-prepared "leaders". That said, one reason I'm hopeful about the UK is that, compared to US politics, there is much less "tribalism", much more fluidity among how people will vote, and more willingness in your parties to vote for pragmatic policies when strict ideology fails. In the US most voters couldn't conceive of voting for the opposite party, such that most elections in the US come down to turnout and a small sliver of maybe 10ish percent of "swing voters". In the UK, by comparison, after the sheer idiocy of Liz Truss, she was quickly canned, a much more realistic/pragmatic PM was installed (even if one disagrees with his overall political stance), and policies quickly changed. Also, at least in polling, there were huge swings in sentiment against Conservatives and towards Labour because Conservatives were (correctly in my opinion) being blamed for their massive fuckup. I can't see the equivalent happening in the US.
  - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
    >But the severity of UK's problems are solely of their own making and are pretty much entirely due to Brexit, and the fallout from Brexit that caused by a string of ill-prepared "leaders". The leaders weren't just I'll prepared with Brexit, they head-on despite the consequences, since they were chasing the "EU-bad" popularity votes by pointing at the EU as the scapegoat for the UKs own self inflicted internal issues. Now the leaders have no more outside scapegoats other than COVID and Putin.
    - rsynnott 4y ago
      > The leaders weren't just I'll prepared with Brexit, they head-on despite the consequences Well, arguably, they kind off got carried away by the thing they created; Brexiters pre-referendum were usually advocating some sort of soft Brexit (albeit often with conflicting demands which made it impossible; "single market access but we don't need to follow European rules" sort of thing), then there was May's Brexit which looked 'hard' at the time but soft compared to what actually happened, then Boris's Brexit, and then Truss wanted to make it _worse_. All of these things were worse than being in the EU, but the degree of badness intensified as the leaders of the movement were captured by the movement itself.
      - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
        >but the degree of badness intensified as the leaders of the movement were captured by the movement itself Well yeah, the population voted to jump off a cliff, and the leaders (Boris) cheered them on and promised them the most spectacular cliff jump ever just to shove it to the EU. In a way this is populist democracy in action and is a lesson for future generations.
      - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
        Its worse then that, Voris was elected on his 'over ready deal', withing 1 year he decided to break the deal he hinself signed because he didnt like it. You couldn't make it up!!
  - vladvasiliu 4y ago
- racktash 4y ago
  I think the handling of Covid-19 (and there plenty of varied, legitimate criticisms to be made about that) is definitely a UK-specific issue. Not that the mistakes made by the UK weren't also made by other governments, of course. As for fears for the rest of Europe – I don't doubt that the rest of Europe has problems. My worries are confined to the UK because that's where I live. (To be clear, this isn't me saying I don't care about other countries. But there's only so many problems a person can concern themselves with.) I think the country could very well cease to exist unless we figure a lot of problems out. The three reasons I listed are the ones that people keep citing. I actually suspect that the UK's problems are longer term and more fundamental. I don't think it's related to either party, either. The Conservative Party of the last few years has not been good for the country, but I'm not convinced Labour will be able to fix our deep, societal problems, either.
  - smhg 4y ago
    > I think the country could very well cease to exist Do you mean something like Scotland going their own way? Or something more dramatic (think revolution)?
    - racktash 4y ago
      > Do you mean something like Scotland going there own way? Yes, exactly this – the four countries of the UK going their own way and the UK ceasing to be. (It's my personal opinion – people will of course have their own take, and good reasons for having their views – that such a happening would be a devastating event.)
- O__________O 4y ago
  Impact of Covid was likely specific though, since it’s my understanding per capita that UK spent significantly more money on Covid than other European countries in part because they have spent significantly less per capita on healthcare for at least the last decade. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/f752a1ad-4a23-408f-a549-4909974c6a2c https://www.ft.com/content/f752a1ad-4a23-408f-a549-4909974c6...
  - cjbgkagh 4y ago
    Both main parties participate in graft, but the Tories were in power so they we’re the ones doing it this time. Crazy lucrative contracts were handed out to party members, family of party members, and donors.
kergonath 4y ago
It will be ok in the long term. It has the resources to overcome its current issues (most of them self-inflicted). However, the next decade or two might be quite difficult. To be fair, there is some justice in it. You (collectively, as a country, not you personally) cannot keep voting for the same failed ideologies and then complain when the consequences come. This needs to be the end of Toryism as it currently exists. Conservatism in itself is fine, but the combination of chumocracy, alternative realities, and rabid nationalism is toxic and destabilising more than the UK. [edit] just look at the peerage thing, or the way prime ministers have been chosen by party members. This just cannot go on for long if you want to keep the pretence of a democracy.
- rayiner 4y ago
  Blaming “Toryism” is pretty odd. You think the economic problems affecting the UK started in the last decade? To me this seems to be the product of Blair-era Labour, which gutted the country by shipping jobs and industrial capacity to Eastern Europe and China. Populist nationalism is rising throughout the western world. It’s a reaction to the failings of globalist liberalism, not the cause of those problems.
  - tptacek 4y ago
    Manufacturing employment in the UK peaked in the 1960s and fell most precipitously in the 1980s, which cuts against your hypothesis.
    - rayiner 4y ago
      Manufacturing employment is declined due to lots of factors: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2020.00054/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2020.00054... > UK manufacturing employment fell especially steeply in the early 1980s during a recession triggered by a high exchange rate and high interest rates. The job losses during these years were documented in particular by Townsend (1983) and Fothergill and Guy (1991) and the process of deindustrialization more generally by Martin and Rowthorn (1986). The recession of the early 1990s added further major job losses (Gudgin, 1995). Thereafter, manufacturing output largely stagnated and manufacturing employment continued to slide even though the UK economy as a whole enjoyed 15 years of sustained economic growth. What’s notable about New Labour was how manufacturing job losses continued even during a long period of sustained economic growth. Finance and knowledge sectors grew while manufacturing sectors declined. Moreover, as to China specifically, the UK had little trade with China until 2000: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53468925.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53468925.amp Likewise immigration really got turbocharged under New Labour: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32162123 https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32162123
Mikeb85 4y ago
No you're right, the UK is done. Little to no industry left, they were a nation of bankers and multinationals that exploited their former colonies. But it's not because of Brexit, COVID or Russia. It's because they never adapted and the rich in their country cared more about maintaining status than improving the country. Look at France and Germany: industry, tech, lots of "producing" businesses thrive. Paris has even overtaken London in finance. There's simply more ambition, innovation and energy.
- cjbgkagh 4y ago
  No taxing India for opium to force sell to China to bail them out this time.
- blibble 4y ago
  > Paris has even overtaken London in finance citation please? in terms of financial centres: NYC is first, followed by London (and they swap places every so often) down at number 15 or so is Paris
  - VBprogrammer 4y ago
    I believe this is reference to the fact that the French stock exchange is now larger than the London Stock exchange.
    - blibble 4y ago
      and of course the LSE is an extremely small part of the financial sector
  - retrac98 4y ago
    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/paris-london-stock-market-largest-europe-120718587.html https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/paris-london-stock-market-...
    - blibble 4y ago
r_hoods_ghost 4y ago
Well there are many reasons, but one of the major ones is that the last time the ruling party in the UK won a majority of the popular vote was, drumroll... 1931. The FPTP system essentially means that elections are decided by a small number of people living in marginal seats, that usually straddle poor urban and wealthy rural areas and so that is who (successful) politician's messages and policies are targeted at. It's also how you get the weird situation that on a lot of social and economic issues both major political parties are often to the right of the public. Add to that the dominance of the Oxbridge PPE brigade in both parties, and you end up with them all drawing on a small, outdated set of policy options (basically what they were taught as undergrads), that don't really work in the modern world. Finally we still have a monarch, and it turns out the last one (God bless 'er) had a large number of kaws modified in her and her family's favour. So yeah. Sclerotic socio polotical system
- kesor 4y ago
  You assume that a government in an elected democracy will solve anything or be any better than the current situation. This has proven to be false over and over again in history. The only countries that flourished and had tremendous economic growth, are those who had a period of more personal freedom and an almost non-existent government. The more government you have, the less can the human spirit succeed in moving things forward. The few deciding for the many is a failure in any way you spin it.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > only countries that flourished and had tremendous economic growth, are those who had a period of more personal freedom and an almost non-existent government I forgot about the famously non-existent ancient Egyptian and modern Chinese governments.
    - kesor 4y ago
      How much do you know about personal freedoms in ancient Egypt that you can argue this quote is false? We do know about the free economic zones in modern China, which had very very limited government. So these only reinforce my point.
cjbgkagh 4y ago
I fear that this time it’s terminal. I’ve been advising my friends to leave the UK for over ten years. To paraphrase Peter Hitchens, “I’ve never seen a more doomed society and I lived in Russia during the fall of USSR”
- jamiegreen 4y ago
  and go where exactly....
  - stavros 4y ago
    I feel bad for people who voted against Brexit. Now they have nowhere to go, even if they do want to leave.
    - rcarr 4y ago
      There's Ireland if you can afford it. I'm seriously considering it.
    - cjbgkagh 4y ago
      Some countries in Europe still have pretty easy to get work/business visas.
  - cjbgkagh 4y ago
    To paraphrase Peter Hitchens again; “If you can’t figure that out by yourself then you are too wet behind the ears to make it” It’s a big world out there with a lot of variety and the appropriate destination depends on a lot of individual factors.
    - jamiegreen 4y ago
      Convenient way to avoid the question. Where would you go?
      - iampims 4y ago
kilroy123 4y ago
I spent the last year living in London. I'm from California originally so a regular old American. I do think it's a nation on the decline in many ways. However, I met so many ambitious immigrants who came to the UK to work hard and make a good life for themselves. I believe these people will continue to keep the UK humming along. It might not be a mighty outsized county economically but they'll be fine.
- retrac98 4y ago
  London might as well be a different country from the rest of the UK. It’s not at all representative.
  - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
    PPP per capita of London is almost double that of any other major city in Britain Manchester, Bringingham or Leeds. In PPP, Paris, Warsaw and Prague are roughly on par. UK looks like a poor-ish country with one rich city.
  - kilroy123 4y ago
    True, but it won't hurt if London carries on.
- donedealomg 4y ago
HL33tibCe7 4y ago
You can really feel the decline these days. It’s in the air.
bitL 4y ago
Not just UK, the whole EU is basically flat since 2008 whereas US, China and India are growing like crazy.

IMTDb 4y ago

> I know that it's not a single issue. Brexit, Covid-19 and the war with Russia – not one of these issues alone is the cause of our problems. Only one of these issue is UK specific tho; so either your fears extend to the rest of Europe and/or the western world, or you can pinpoint the cause of your anxiety.

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Exactly. All of Europe, and the world really, has had to deal with the pain (both economic and in lives) of Covid and the war in Ukraine. But the severity of UK's problems are solely of their own making and are pretty much entirely due to Brexit, and the fallout from Brexit that caused by a string of ill-prepared "leaders". That said, one reason I'm hopeful about the UK is that, compared to US politics, there is much less "tribalism", much more fluidity among how people will vote, and more willingness in your parties to vote for pragmatic policies when strict ideology fails. In the US most voters couldn't conceive of voting for the opposite party, such that most elections in the US come down to turnout and a small sliver of maybe 10ish percent of "swing voters". In the UK, by comparison, after the sheer idiocy of Liz Truss, she was quickly canned, a much more realistic/pragmatic PM was installed (even if one disagrees with his overall political stance), and policies quickly changed. Also, at least in polling, there were huge swings in sentiment against Conservatives and towards Labour because Conservatives were (correctly in my opinion) being blamed for their massive fuckup. I can't see the equivalent happening in the US.
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  >But the severity of UK's problems are solely of their own making and are pretty much entirely due to Brexit, and the fallout from Brexit that caused by a string of ill-prepared "leaders". The leaders weren't just I'll prepared with Brexit, they head-on despite the consequences, since they were chasing the "EU-bad" popularity votes by pointing at the EU as the scapegoat for the UKs own self inflicted internal issues. Now the leaders have no more outside scapegoats other than COVID and Putin.
  - rsynnott 4y ago
    > The leaders weren't just I'll prepared with Brexit, they head-on despite the consequences Well, arguably, they kind off got carried away by the thing they created; Brexiters pre-referendum were usually advocating some sort of soft Brexit (albeit often with conflicting demands which made it impossible; "single market access but we don't need to follow European rules" sort of thing), then there was May's Brexit which looked 'hard' at the time but soft compared to what actually happened, then Boris's Brexit, and then Truss wanted to make it _worse_. All of these things were worse than being in the EU, but the degree of badness intensified as the leaders of the movement were captured by the movement itself.
    - ChuckNorris89 4y ago
      >but the degree of badness intensified as the leaders of the movement were captured by the movement itself Well yeah, the population voted to jump off a cliff, and the leaders (Boris) cheered them on and promised them the most spectacular cliff jump ever just to shove it to the EU. In a way this is populist democracy in action and is a lesson for future generations.
    - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
      Its worse then that, Voris was elected on his 'over ready deal', withing 1 year he decided to break the deal he hinself signed because he didnt like it. You couldn't make it up!!
- vladvasiliu 4y ago
racktash 4y ago
I think the handling of Covid-19 (and there plenty of varied, legitimate criticisms to be made about that) is definitely a UK-specific issue. Not that the mistakes made by the UK weren't also made by other governments, of course. As for fears for the rest of Europe – I don't doubt that the rest of Europe has problems. My worries are confined to the UK because that's where I live. (To be clear, this isn't me saying I don't care about other countries. But there's only so many problems a person can concern themselves with.) I think the country could very well cease to exist unless we figure a lot of problems out. The three reasons I listed are the ones that people keep citing. I actually suspect that the UK's problems are longer term and more fundamental. I don't think it's related to either party, either. The Conservative Party of the last few years has not been good for the country, but I'm not convinced Labour will be able to fix our deep, societal problems, either.
- smhg 4y ago
  > I think the country could very well cease to exist Do you mean something like Scotland going their own way? Or something more dramatic (think revolution)?
  - racktash 4y ago
    > Do you mean something like Scotland going there own way? Yes, exactly this – the four countries of the UK going their own way and the UK ceasing to be. (It's my personal opinion – people will of course have their own take, and good reasons for having their views – that such a happening would be a devastating event.)
O__________O 4y ago
Impact of Covid was likely specific though, since it’s my understanding per capita that UK spent significantly more money on Covid than other European countries in part because they have spent significantly less per capita on healthcare for at least the last decade. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/f752a1ad-4a23-408f-a549-4909974c6a2c https://www.ft.com/content/f752a1ad-4a23-408f-a549-4909974c6...
- cjbgkagh 4y ago
  Both main parties participate in graft, but the Tories were in power so they we’re the ones doing it this time. Crazy lucrative contracts were handed out to party members, family of party members, and donors.

kergonath 4y ago

It will be ok in the long term. It has the resources to overcome its current issues (most of them self-inflicted). However, the next decade or two might be quite difficult. To be fair, there is some justice in it. You (collectively, as a country, not you personally) cannot keep voting for the same failed ideologies and then complain when the consequences come. This needs to be the end of Toryism as it currently exists. Conservatism in itself is fine, but the combination of chumocracy, alternative realities, and rabid nationalism is toxic and destabilising more than the UK. [edit] just look at the peerage thing, or the way prime ministers have been chosen by party members. This just cannot go on for long if you want to keep the pretence of a democracy.

rayiner 4y ago
Blaming “Toryism” is pretty odd. You think the economic problems affecting the UK started in the last decade? To me this seems to be the product of Blair-era Labour, which gutted the country by shipping jobs and industrial capacity to Eastern Europe and China. Populist nationalism is rising throughout the western world. It’s a reaction to the failings of globalist liberalism, not the cause of those problems.
- tptacek 4y ago
  Manufacturing employment in the UK peaked in the 1960s and fell most precipitously in the 1980s, which cuts against your hypothesis.
  - rayiner 4y ago
    Manufacturing employment is declined due to lots of factors: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2020.00054/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2020.00054... > UK manufacturing employment fell especially steeply in the early 1980s during a recession triggered by a high exchange rate and high interest rates. The job losses during these years were documented in particular by Townsend (1983) and Fothergill and Guy (1991) and the process of deindustrialization more generally by Martin and Rowthorn (1986). The recession of the early 1990s added further major job losses (Gudgin, 1995). Thereafter, manufacturing output largely stagnated and manufacturing employment continued to slide even though the UK economy as a whole enjoyed 15 years of sustained economic growth. What’s notable about New Labour was how manufacturing job losses continued even during a long period of sustained economic growth. Finance and knowledge sectors grew while manufacturing sectors declined. Moreover, as to China specifically, the UK had little trade with China until 2000: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53468925.amp https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53468925.amp Likewise immigration really got turbocharged under New Labour: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32162123 https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32162123

Mikeb85 4y ago

No you're right, the UK is done. Little to no industry left, they were a nation of bankers and multinationals that exploited their former colonies. But it's not because of Brexit, COVID or Russia. It's because they never adapted and the rich in their country cared more about maintaining status than improving the country. Look at France and Germany: industry, tech, lots of "producing" businesses thrive. Paris has even overtaken London in finance. There's simply more ambition, innovation and energy.

cjbgkagh 4y ago
No taxing India for opium to force sell to China to bail them out this time.
blibble 4y ago
> Paris has even overtaken London in finance citation please? in terms of financial centres: NYC is first, followed by London (and they swap places every so often) down at number 15 or so is Paris
- VBprogrammer 4y ago
  I believe this is reference to the fact that the French stock exchange is now larger than the London Stock exchange.
  - blibble 4y ago
    and of course the LSE is an extremely small part of the financial sector
- retrac98 4y ago
  https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/paris-london-stock-market-largest-europe-120718587.html https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/paris-london-stock-market-...
  - blibble 4y ago

r_hoods_ghost 4y ago

Well there are many reasons, but one of the major ones is that the last time the ruling party in the UK won a majority of the popular vote was, drumroll... 1931. The FPTP system essentially means that elections are decided by a small number of people living in marginal seats, that usually straddle poor urban and wealthy rural areas and so that is who (successful) politician's messages and policies are targeted at. It's also how you get the weird situation that on a lot of social and economic issues both major political parties are often to the right of the public. Add to that the dominance of the Oxbridge PPE brigade in both parties, and you end up with them all drawing on a small, outdated set of policy options (basically what they were taught as undergrads), that don't really work in the modern world. Finally we still have a monarch, and it turns out the last one (God bless 'er) had a large number of kaws modified in her and her family's favour. So yeah. Sclerotic socio polotical system

kesor 4y ago
You assume that a government in an elected democracy will solve anything or be any better than the current situation. This has proven to be false over and over again in history. The only countries that flourished and had tremendous economic growth, are those who had a period of more personal freedom and an almost non-existent government. The more government you have, the less can the human spirit succeed in moving things forward. The few deciding for the many is a failure in any way you spin it.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > only countries that flourished and had tremendous economic growth, are those who had a period of more personal freedom and an almost non-existent government I forgot about the famously non-existent ancient Egyptian and modern Chinese governments.
  - kesor 4y ago
    How much do you know about personal freedoms in ancient Egypt that you can argue this quote is false? We do know about the free economic zones in modern China, which had very very limited government. So these only reinforce my point.

cjbgkagh 4y ago

I fear that this time it’s terminal. I’ve been advising my friends to leave the UK for over ten years. To paraphrase Peter Hitchens, “I’ve never seen a more doomed society and I lived in Russia during the fall of USSR”

jamiegreen 4y ago
and go where exactly....
- stavros 4y ago
  I feel bad for people who voted against Brexit. Now they have nowhere to go, even if they do want to leave.
  - rcarr 4y ago
    There's Ireland if you can afford it. I'm seriously considering it.
  - cjbgkagh 4y ago
    Some countries in Europe still have pretty easy to get work/business visas.
- cjbgkagh 4y ago
  To paraphrase Peter Hitchens again; “If you can’t figure that out by yourself then you are too wet behind the ears to make it” It’s a big world out there with a lot of variety and the appropriate destination depends on a lot of individual factors.
  - jamiegreen 4y ago
    Convenient way to avoid the question. Where would you go?
    - iampims 4y ago

kilroy123 4y ago

I spent the last year living in London. I'm from California originally so a regular old American. I do think it's a nation on the decline in many ways. However, I met so many ambitious immigrants who came to the UK to work hard and make a good life for themselves. I believe these people will continue to keep the UK humming along. It might not be a mighty outsized county economically but they'll be fine.

retrac98 4y ago
London might as well be a different country from the rest of the UK. It’s not at all representative.
- ClumsyPilot 4y ago
  PPP per capita of London is almost double that of any other major city in Britain Manchester, Bringingham or Leeds. In PPP, Paris, Warsaw and Prague are roughly on par. UK looks like a poor-ish country with one rich city.
- kilroy123 4y ago
  True, but it won't hurt if London carries on.
donedealomg 4y ago

HL33tibCe7 4y ago

You can really feel the decline these days. It’s in the air.

bitL 4y ago

Not just UK, the whole EU is basically flat since 2008 whereas US, China and India are growing like crazy.