8 ms·

I’m quite curious how this will end in the UK. Regardless of how much Brexit has to do with this, I think the lack of actual Brexit opportunities and the contri

I’m quite curious how this will end in the UK. Regardless of how much Brexit has to do with this, I think the lack of actual Brexit opportunities and the contribution it has to core inflation is at one point going to change the political landscape.

mnd999 4y ago
Some stuff in the media today about a Swiss style deal with the EU.
- detaro 4y ago
  after all this the UK is seriously proposing free movement of people (among a pile of other things) again?!
  - de_keyboard 4y ago
    Hard brexit was not grounded in reality so ultimately this has to happen. The Conservatives should've stuck with May's compromise - now Labour are likely to take power.
    - squidbeak 4y ago
      A Labour Party that in most respects doesn't sound any different to their opponents.
      - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
        Indeed, this labour party does not support strikes, supports clamping down on protest, etc. and when Labour parry was appreciably different, it was piloried in the press.
    - gghhzzgghhzz 4y ago
      Tories did end up supporting May's compromise, even some members of the ERG. It was blocked by Labour and other parties. It would have been the most practical way forward at the time. It would have been softer and better planned and with a better working relationship with the EU. It would also have meant that Labour would have been in partial control of parliament for another 3 years as May's majority relied on people who hated her and was never going to last for every vote. Then we would have had another election this year not in 2019. I honestly don't know what people were thinking at the time. It was obvious that not compromising would end in chaos.
  - phatfish 4y ago
    We swapped ~300 million EU citizen with similar (often greater) workplace rights and living standards for a soon-to-be trade deal with India that will only happen with the mass migration of far poorer Indians to the UK. Indians which are used to much fewer workplace rights. The working visas that are created for this will remove the rights UK citizens have to make the visa holders "more attractive" to employers. Good luck to native workers in the UK competing with an Indian on a work visa that has no working time regulations, holiday allowance, etc. and very little leverage to complain in case their visa gets revoked.
    - kaashif 4y ago
      > Good luck to native workers in the UK competing with an Indian on a work visa that has no working time regulations, holiday allowance, etc. There's an important point to highlight here: low paid workers from India working long hours with no holiday will not actually be able to compete with either highly skilled Indian workers who can already get visas, or highly skilled native workers or workers from other developed countries, even if they demand holiday, high pay, etc. Indeed, this migration report [1] suggests that immigration decreases wages for low paid workers, but increases wages for medium and high paid workers. Immigration doesn't just boost labour supply, it boosts demand too, but not always in the same jobs, so the effects on wages can be uneven. If it were that simple to replace highly paid workers, we'd have all already been offshored, but that never seems to materialise. 1: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/ https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/th...
- bbojan 4y ago
  Swiss type deal isn't working for the Swiss anymore. EU was putting pressure on the Swiss to accept a comprehensive deal to replace the dozens of agreements that they have. When the Swiss refused, the EU simple lets one by one pass without renewing them. This has e.g. happened with the Horizon Europe research program which Switzerland is no longer part of.
  - chrisseaton 4y ago
    > This has e.g. happened with the Horizon Europe research program which Switzerland is no longer part of. That’s so self-destructive - surely the EU needs Switzerland’s powerful universities more than Switzerland needs Horizon?
    - throw827474737 4y ago
      The other way round..
      - chrisseaton 4y ago
        Don’t you think the Swiss out more into Horizon than they got out?
    - bigbillheck 4y ago
      My understanding was that the EU has many universities.
      - chrisseaton 4y ago
        They’re not anywhere near where the Swiss universities are if you look at the rankings.
        the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
        That is true, but I believe this to be irrelevant for what is happening. Switzerland is not funding the shortfall which means that for researchers the game has changed as a result that topic is hot in Switzerland still, in the EU not.
- mFixman 4y ago
  This is 100% the government testing the waters to see how such news would be received by the public.
- blibble 4y ago
  the government have stated they don't recognise any of the discussions reported on https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/20/hardline-brexiters-voice-fears-over-reports-of-swiss-style-eu-deal https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/20/hardline-br... wishful thinking by journalists...
  - mnd999 4y ago
    As someone else mentioned, this was the government floating the idea to see how it went down. This has been their MO for some time.
    - blibble 4y ago
      no doubt that government leaks to test policy but this one's such a huge vote loser even the opposition refuse to discuss it it's some journo that's got wind of part of some second hand discussion and has turned it into a scoop
rjsw 4y ago
Brexit has removed one way to keep wages down - import more people. I don't think that the central bank solution of putting up interest rates to reduce the number of jobs is going to help, people still need to eat.
- CommanderData 4y ago
  Brexit has caused immigration from non-EU countries to increase. According to the government's own statistics we've seen massive increases from countries like India despite the anti-immigration rhetoric displayed by the Tories. We've also got a partnership with India that helps fill in the gaps. Not to mention the record study visa's issued to India. "India first again. I’m delighted that Indian nationals were issued the largest number of UK study, work and visitor visas in the year ending June 2022. More strength to the unique living bridge that connects our people." Alex Ellis, British High Commissioner to India [2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/internationalmigrationenglandandwales/census2021#:~:text=Top%2010%20non%2DUK%20countries%20of%20birth%20in%202021%2C%20with%202011%20figures%20for%20comparison%2C%20England%20and%20Wales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati... [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/india-receives-largest-share-of-uk-study-work-and-visit-visas https://www.gov.uk/government/news/india-receives-largest-sh... https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/ https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
  - enqk 4y ago
    Increase in total numbers or in proportion? Edit: the link above shows that in raw numbers, non-EU migration increased while EU decreased. Appears to not be a complete 1:1 replacement, though. I asked because if you only give the proportion, it can still increase if just the EU migration numbers go down. Also relevant to reading the graph, the campaign/referendum on brexit started in 2015.
  - COGlory 4y ago
    Ok, but net migration is still way down: >An estimated 202,000 citizens from other EU countries immigrated to the UK in the year to September 2018, and about 145,000 emigrated abroad. So EU ‘net migration’ was around 57,000—roughly the lowest level recorded since 2009. >In the year before the referendum, net EU migration was estimated at 189,000, so there’s been a large fall following the vote. Obviously other countries are going to make up a higher percentage of those immigrating, but the total amount of immigrants is down according to that article.
rwmj 4y ago
We're all curious about it. It probably has to start with the main opposition actually acknowledging that Brexit is harmful. At the moment they've all been ordered to shut up about it.
- vnchr 4y ago
  This seems to coincide with inflation of food prices in the US where there was no Brexit.
  - squidbeak 4y ago
    How full are supermarket shelves in the US? Whole product lines are missing in supermarkets in the UK.
    - jen20 4y ago
      There are effectively zero shortages of critical goods, and food price inflation in the parts of the US I live and spend significant time in (TX, CA, NY) is certainly not at the levels seen in the UK (where I am from), though there is some which is undoubtedly painful for those on fixed or low incomes even at the levels seen here. The idea that this is a "global problem" is convenient for the UK government and Brexit supporters, but not based in reality.
      - pessimizer 4y ago
        > but not based in reality. I don't know about reality, but what you've done is delivered anecdotes when we know that prices in the US have gone up about 10% and prices in the UK have gone up 15%. There's no need for anecdotes, especially for another round of calling Brexiteers deluded.
    - blibble 4y ago
      > Whole product lines are missing in supermarkets in the UK. where does this rumour keep coming from? bar during covid I haven't observed this in any supermarket (unless you go at 9pm on a Saturday night or something, where they haven't restocked yet)
mytailorisrich 4y ago
To compete after Brexit the UK needed to break with the status quo and that most likely meant, as many Brexiteers suggested, going for low tax low regs. Indeed, if the level of taxes and regulations in the UK is the same as in the EU then why setup a business in the UK rather than in the EU? We see that the current government is unwilling to go down that path, although Covid did throw a major spanner in the works of public finance, so the country is almost guaranteed a slow (or not so slow) decline. This is not about whether I think Brexit is good or bad, but it did happen and that changes what the country can and should do in order to prosper under those new conditions.
- rwmj 4y ago
  Any attempt to do that would be political suicide, as indeed Liz Truss recently demonstrated.
  - mytailorisrich 4y ago
    Liz Truss made big mistakes in implementation: they did not discuss their plans with key stakeholders and they they did not prioritise measures (why abolish the 45p rate now?) but they did get that growth must be much higher priority, if not highest priority. Again, the level of debts is really weighing on things: without Covid debts Liz Truss's budget would have been well received. And of course even many in her own party were out to kill her, which did not help.
    - gghhzzgghhzz 4y ago
      Debt being an issue is mostly a self imposed limitation / political tactic. Parties were saying exactly the same thing about debt in 2010 when debt / GDP ratio was lower in order to win an election and implement austerity. Covid Debt in the UK was all QE anyway, so is effectively money we owe to ourselves. I do agree that Truss could have done all the things she wanted to do if she had just been smarter about presentation.
      - mytailorisrich 4y ago
bambataa 4y ago
I’m very skeptical that Brexit’s negative consequences will ever be so unambiguous that people admit them. There will always be some non-Brexit excuse. Equally, remainers are too keen to blame everything on Brexit. Reading the UK personal finance subreddit is really sobering. Most people’s idea of a high salary (even in good industries) is less than a mediocre junior dev salary in the US. I feel extremely fortunate to have moved into tech when I did, but even there only American companies offer top tier wages. Are there any British companies competing with FAANGs on salary? On the plus side, maybe inflation is good for indebtedness?
- HDThoreaun 4y ago
  There are effectively no non-American corporations competing with FAANGs on salary. Not at any real scale.
  - _benedict 4y ago
    FAANG in London are competing with finance, and there are plenty of non-American firms in finance paying high salaries.
    - ProZsolt 4y ago
      FAANG in London pay way less than finance
      - _benedict 4y ago
        That would only seem to confirm my point. There are plenty of non-US firms competing with FAANG comp in London.
    - HDThoreaun 4y ago
      Sure, I was thinking about software engineer salaries, but finance definitely has positions that pay FAANG wages. Those companies aren't really competing with FAANG though since they're looking for different people.
recuter 4y ago
Proposed Scottish independence is 12 months away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#2023_proposed_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_indep... > In July 2022, the Scottish Greens announced that, if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead General elections are 25 months away. Labour is up 30 points in the polls or something like that. Brexit probably didn't help the UK economy but the economical ramifications of the Ukraine war haven't even begun to unfurl yet. Hard to take polls two years out seriously no matter how huge the margin is and yet if these things don't somehow resolve that will be a general election for the history books. The UK will simply never be the same again. I don't have a horse in this race but it is pretty clear that Labour surfing such a populistic wave, given their current rhetoric, will turn the place into an actual banana republic. (People no doubt will get bent out of shape about this because of political ideologies but the observation is simply about populism) Much as it pains me to say it, the French will become the new UK. And England will become like Italy.
- blibble 4y ago
  > Proposed Scottish independence is 12 months away. the SNP have been saying this since the first vote in 2014
  - recuter 4y ago
    A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. But the key point is 'if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead'. If an actual referendum was allowed and held today it would perhaps be a toss up. But two harsh winters from now if the economy is still spiraling it will be a foregone conclusion. Point being why would anyone invest in Scotland or the rest of the UK during such tumultuous times? And this political instability is set to continue for years and years now.
    - blibble 4y ago
      > A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. But the key point is 'if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead'. to what end? with no agreement from the UK government nothing will happen > Point being why would anyone invest in Scotland or the rest of the UK during such tumultuous times? there's no doubt it hurts investment in Scotland however its economic impact on leaving the UK would be more or less a non-event for the rest of the UK (Scotland's share of UK GDP being less than the UK's share of EU GDP)

mnd999 4y ago

Some stuff in the media today about a Swiss style deal with the EU.

detaro 4y ago
after all this the UK is seriously proposing free movement of people (among a pile of other things) again?!
- de_keyboard 4y ago
  Hard brexit was not grounded in reality so ultimately this has to happen. The Conservatives should've stuck with May's compromise - now Labour are likely to take power.
  - squidbeak 4y ago
    A Labour Party that in most respects doesn't sound any different to their opponents.
    - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
      Indeed, this labour party does not support strikes, supports clamping down on protest, etc. and when Labour parry was appreciably different, it was piloried in the press.
  - gghhzzgghhzz 4y ago
    Tories did end up supporting May's compromise, even some members of the ERG. It was blocked by Labour and other parties. It would have been the most practical way forward at the time. It would have been softer and better planned and with a better working relationship with the EU. It would also have meant that Labour would have been in partial control of parliament for another 3 years as May's majority relied on people who hated her and was never going to last for every vote. Then we would have had another election this year not in 2019. I honestly don't know what people were thinking at the time. It was obvious that not compromising would end in chaos.
- phatfish 4y ago
  We swapped ~300 million EU citizen with similar (often greater) workplace rights and living standards for a soon-to-be trade deal with India that will only happen with the mass migration of far poorer Indians to the UK. Indians which are used to much fewer workplace rights. The working visas that are created for this will remove the rights UK citizens have to make the visa holders "more attractive" to employers. Good luck to native workers in the UK competing with an Indian on a work visa that has no working time regulations, holiday allowance, etc. and very little leverage to complain in case their visa gets revoked.
  - kaashif 4y ago
    > Good luck to native workers in the UK competing with an Indian on a work visa that has no working time regulations, holiday allowance, etc. There's an important point to highlight here: low paid workers from India working long hours with no holiday will not actually be able to compete with either highly skilled Indian workers who can already get visas, or highly skilled native workers or workers from other developed countries, even if they demand holiday, high pay, etc. Indeed, this migration report [1] suggests that immigration decreases wages for low paid workers, but increases wages for medium and high paid workers. Immigration doesn't just boost labour supply, it boosts demand too, but not always in the same jobs, so the effects on wages can be uneven. If it were that simple to replace highly paid workers, we'd have all already been offshored, but that never seems to materialise. 1: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/ https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/th...
bbojan 4y ago
Swiss type deal isn't working for the Swiss anymore. EU was putting pressure on the Swiss to accept a comprehensive deal to replace the dozens of agreements that they have. When the Swiss refused, the EU simple lets one by one pass without renewing them. This has e.g. happened with the Horizon Europe research program which Switzerland is no longer part of.
- chrisseaton 4y ago
  > This has e.g. happened with the Horizon Europe research program which Switzerland is no longer part of. That’s so self-destructive - surely the EU needs Switzerland’s powerful universities more than Switzerland needs Horizon?
  - throw827474737 4y ago
    The other way round..
    - chrisseaton 4y ago
      Don’t you think the Swiss out more into Horizon than they got out?
  - bigbillheck 4y ago
    My understanding was that the EU has many universities.
    - chrisseaton 4y ago
      They’re not anywhere near where the Swiss universities are if you look at the rankings.
      - the_mitsuhiko 4y ago
        That is true, but I believe this to be irrelevant for what is happening. Switzerland is not funding the shortfall which means that for researchers the game has changed as a result that topic is hot in Switzerland still, in the EU not.
mFixman 4y ago
This is 100% the government testing the waters to see how such news would be received by the public.
blibble 4y ago
the government have stated they don't recognise any of the discussions reported on https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/20/hardline-brexiters-voice-fears-over-reports-of-swiss-style-eu-deal https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/20/hardline-br... wishful thinking by journalists...
- mnd999 4y ago
  As someone else mentioned, this was the government floating the idea to see how it went down. This has been their MO for some time.
  - blibble 4y ago
    no doubt that government leaks to test policy but this one's such a huge vote loser even the opposition refuse to discuss it it's some journo that's got wind of part of some second hand discussion and has turned it into a scoop

rjsw 4y ago

Brexit has removed one way to keep wages down - import more people. I don't think that the central bank solution of putting up interest rates to reduce the number of jobs is going to help, people still need to eat.

CommanderData 4y ago
Brexit has caused immigration from non-EU countries to increase. According to the government's own statistics we've seen massive increases from countries like India despite the anti-immigration rhetoric displayed by the Tories. We've also got a partnership with India that helps fill in the gaps. Not to mention the record study visa's issued to India. "India first again. I’m delighted that Indian nationals were issued the largest number of UK study, work and visitor visas in the year ending June 2022. More strength to the unique living bridge that connects our people." Alex Ellis, British High Commissioner to India [2] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/internationalmigrationenglandandwales/census2021#:~:text=Top%2010%20non%2DUK%20countries%20of%20birth%20in%202021%2C%20with%202011%20figures%20for%20comparison%2C%20England%20and%20Wales https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati... [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/india-receives-largest-share-of-uk-study-work-and-visit-visas https://www.gov.uk/government/news/india-receives-largest-sh... https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/ https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
- enqk 4y ago
  Increase in total numbers or in proportion? Edit: the link above shows that in raw numbers, non-EU migration increased while EU decreased. Appears to not be a complete 1:1 replacement, though. I asked because if you only give the proportion, it can still increase if just the EU migration numbers go down. Also relevant to reading the graph, the campaign/referendum on brexit started in 2015.
- COGlory 4y ago
  Ok, but net migration is still way down: >An estimated 202,000 citizens from other EU countries immigrated to the UK in the year to September 2018, and about 145,000 emigrated abroad. So EU ‘net migration’ was around 57,000—roughly the lowest level recorded since 2009. >In the year before the referendum, net EU migration was estimated at 189,000, so there’s been a large fall following the vote. Obviously other countries are going to make up a higher percentage of those immigrating, but the total amount of immigrants is down according to that article.

rwmj 4y ago

We're all curious about it. It probably has to start with the main opposition actually acknowledging that Brexit is harmful. At the moment they've all been ordered to shut up about it.

vnchr 4y ago
This seems to coincide with inflation of food prices in the US where there was no Brexit.
- squidbeak 4y ago
  How full are supermarket shelves in the US? Whole product lines are missing in supermarkets in the UK.
  - jen20 4y ago
    There are effectively zero shortages of critical goods, and food price inflation in the parts of the US I live and spend significant time in (TX, CA, NY) is certainly not at the levels seen in the UK (where I am from), though there is some which is undoubtedly painful for those on fixed or low incomes even at the levels seen here. The idea that this is a "global problem" is convenient for the UK government and Brexit supporters, but not based in reality.
    - pessimizer 4y ago
      > but not based in reality. I don't know about reality, but what you've done is delivered anecdotes when we know that prices in the US have gone up about 10% and prices in the UK have gone up 15%. There's no need for anecdotes, especially for another round of calling Brexiteers deluded.
  - blibble 4y ago
    > Whole product lines are missing in supermarkets in the UK. where does this rumour keep coming from? bar during covid I haven't observed this in any supermarket (unless you go at 9pm on a Saturday night or something, where they haven't restocked yet)

mytailorisrich 4y ago

To compete after Brexit the UK needed to break with the status quo and that most likely meant, as many Brexiteers suggested, going for low tax low regs. Indeed, if the level of taxes and regulations in the UK is the same as in the EU then why setup a business in the UK rather than in the EU? We see that the current government is unwilling to go down that path, although Covid did throw a major spanner in the works of public finance, so the country is almost guaranteed a slow (or not so slow) decline. This is not about whether I think Brexit is good or bad, but it did happen and that changes what the country can and should do in order to prosper under those new conditions.

rwmj 4y ago
Any attempt to do that would be political suicide, as indeed Liz Truss recently demonstrated.
- mytailorisrich 4y ago
  Liz Truss made big mistakes in implementation: they did not discuss their plans with key stakeholders and they they did not prioritise measures (why abolish the 45p rate now?) but they did get that growth must be much higher priority, if not highest priority. Again, the level of debts is really weighing on things: without Covid debts Liz Truss's budget would have been well received. And of course even many in her own party were out to kill her, which did not help.
  - gghhzzgghhzz 4y ago
    Debt being an issue is mostly a self imposed limitation / political tactic. Parties were saying exactly the same thing about debt in 2010 when debt / GDP ratio was lower in order to win an election and implement austerity. Covid Debt in the UK was all QE anyway, so is effectively money we owe to ourselves. I do agree that Truss could have done all the things she wanted to do if she had just been smarter about presentation.
    - mytailorisrich 4y ago

bambataa 4y ago

I’m very skeptical that Brexit’s negative consequences will ever be so unambiguous that people admit them. There will always be some non-Brexit excuse. Equally, remainers are too keen to blame everything on Brexit. Reading the UK personal finance subreddit is really sobering. Most people’s idea of a high salary (even in good industries) is less than a mediocre junior dev salary in the US. I feel extremely fortunate to have moved into tech when I did, but even there only American companies offer top tier wages. Are there any British companies competing with FAANGs on salary? On the plus side, maybe inflation is good for indebtedness?

HDThoreaun 4y ago
There are effectively no non-American corporations competing with FAANGs on salary. Not at any real scale.
- _benedict 4y ago
  FAANG in London are competing with finance, and there are plenty of non-American firms in finance paying high salaries.
  - ProZsolt 4y ago
    FAANG in London pay way less than finance
    - _benedict 4y ago
      That would only seem to confirm my point. There are plenty of non-US firms competing with FAANG comp in London.
  - HDThoreaun 4y ago
    Sure, I was thinking about software engineer salaries, but finance definitely has positions that pay FAANG wages. Those companies aren't really competing with FAANG though since they're looking for different people.

recuter 4y ago

Proposed Scottish independence is 12 months away. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#2023_proposed_referendum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_indep... > In July 2022, the Scottish Greens announced that, if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead General elections are 25 months away. Labour is up 30 points in the polls or something like that. Brexit probably didn't help the UK economy but the economical ramifications of the Ukraine war haven't even begun to unfurl yet. Hard to take polls two years out seriously no matter how huge the margin is and yet if these things don't somehow resolve that will be a general election for the history books. The UK will simply never be the same again. I don't have a horse in this race but it is pretty clear that Labour surfing such a populistic wave, given their current rhetoric, will turn the place into an actual banana republic. (People no doubt will get bent out of shape about this because of political ideologies but the observation is simply about populism) Much as it pains me to say it, the French will become the new UK. And England will become like Italy.

blibble 4y ago
> Proposed Scottish independence is 12 months away. the SNP have been saying this since the first vote in 2014
- recuter 4y ago
  A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. But the key point is 'if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead'. If an actual referendum was allowed and held today it would perhaps be a toss up. But two harsh winters from now if the economy is still spiraling it will be a foregone conclusion. Point being why would anyone invest in Scotland or the rest of the UK during such tumultuous times? And this political instability is set to continue for years and years now.
  - blibble 4y ago
    > A broken clock is right twice a day and all that. But the key point is 'if a referendum were blocked, they would fight the next general election as a referendum instead'. to what end? with no agreement from the UK government nothing will happen > Point being why would anyone invest in Scotland or the rest of the UK during such tumultuous times? there's no doubt it hurts investment in Scotland however its economic impact on leaving the UK would be more or less a non-event for the rest of the UK (Scotland's share of UK GDP being less than the UK's share of EU GDP)