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Alternative title: Russia is getting richer while not being defeated by the US. 100k deaths is pure BS sourced by nothing except some propagandists wishful thin

Alternative title: Russia is getting richer while not being defeated by the US. 100k deaths is pure BS sourced by nothing except some propagandists wishful thinking. This kind of number would be impossible for Russia to hide we would have massive proofs. Fwiw the US has given about 25% of it's 155mm shells to Ukraine and hasn't the capacity to replenish it at a good rate. They're buying shells to South Korea now. Source : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljhWeHWN1QM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljhWeHWN1QM

enraged_camel 4y ago
You complain about sources and then post some no-name youtuber as your source?
- jmnicolas 4y ago
  So you define 400k subscribers and 44k views as "noname Youtuber"? Especially in the domain of OSINT, he's actually quite big.
  - mopsi 4y ago
    Subscriber count, view count (neither of which is impressive), and being "big among people who read wikipedia" don't make that channel a higher quality source than any armchair general you can encounter at a bar. Even by Youtube standards, the linked video isn't very good compared to channels like Perun. There's now a terrible number of channels reading off top 3 Google search results with the pathos of an expert.
  - Ralfp 4y ago
    The argument is that YouTube rewards what hivemind thinks is interesting and not what's correct or accurate. Sargon of Akkad has 900k subscribers and according to the dude EU is two years away from collapse and open racial war because of immigration and the left since at least 2012 but none of that has realized. But a lot of people out there like his takes so he has subscribers.
edgyquant 4y ago
Russia isn’t getting richer though and has been losing an attrition war for months. 100k isn’t that far fetched considering
- funnymony 4y ago
  I read that methodology of counting dead issuuch: 50 acme tanks destroyed -> one acme tank crew comprises of N men -> number of dead is 50xN. (Minus men seen run away in time)
wwtrv 4y ago
You do know what the word casualty means? The US 100k estimate includes the wounded, captured and MIA besides those who died.
layer8 4y ago
They didn’t write 100K dead, but 100K killed or wounded, which doesn’t seem implausible. Obviously the large majority of those 100K is merely injured, not dead.
UncleEntity 4y ago
> Fwiw the US has given about 25% of it's 155mm shells to Ukraine… Which doesn’t matter. When I was on active duty (during the Cold War) at the end of the fiscal year they would send us out with obscene amounts of ammo to use because if it didn’t get used the budget would get cut for the next year. Don’t you worry about the ammunition manufacturers, they are doing fine.
- 988747 4y ago
  Define "obscene amounts". Ukraine shoots like 6.000 155mm rounds per day. US manufacturers can't produce that much, US government is currently doing market survey for potential new manufacturers, because Army reserves were severely depleted.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
CamperBob2 4y ago
No one is going to fuck with the US regardless of how many 155mm shells we have. Ukraine can't say the same, because unlike the US, they agreed to unilateral nuclear disarmament. After all, we told them we had their backs. What could possibly go wrong?
- funnymony 4y ago
  In a way, current support can be viewed as fulfilment of budapest memorandum obligations.
AntiRemoteWork 4y ago
orwin 4y ago
Casualty =! KIA. 100k casualty would mean between 20k and 33k KIA depending on if the army is on the offense and if the medical supply are well distributed. Russia isn't getting richer, everyone is getting poorer because of this conflict (it's econ 101). I also know someone in the French military industry (big wig at Thales) who is extremely happy of how the russian equipment performed and actively recruit right now because he knows that even if the conflict end quickly, there is now way Russia keep its second place as world arms dealers, and already have a selling point about how the only russian equipment that wasn't disappointing used Thales optics, electronics and/or avionics. Don't know if it's real, but it seems backed by data and i don't see why he would lie to me (he knows i'm not interested).
- wwtrv 4y ago
  Rising oil prices did benefit Russia immensely, though. IIRC their budget revenue even increased during the first half of 22. They shouldn't be doing that well now anymore (with falling prices and increasing restrictions). Of course it depends if EU will resume buying Russian gas at a large scale when/if current storage runs out.
  - orwin 4y ago
    Rising oil price have an effect on the world productive system, that's why we have decades of evidence oil having very low elasticity of demand, but also of supply. Rising oil price might have benefited Russia's budget, but not its productive system.

enraged_camel 4y ago

You complain about sources and then post some no-name youtuber as your source?

jmnicolas 4y ago
So you define 400k subscribers and 44k views as "noname Youtuber"? Especially in the domain of OSINT, he's actually quite big.
- mopsi 4y ago
  Subscriber count, view count (neither of which is impressive), and being "big among people who read wikipedia" don't make that channel a higher quality source than any armchair general you can encounter at a bar. Even by Youtube standards, the linked video isn't very good compared to channels like Perun. There's now a terrible number of channels reading off top 3 Google search results with the pathos of an expert.
- Ralfp 4y ago
  The argument is that YouTube rewards what hivemind thinks is interesting and not what's correct or accurate. Sargon of Akkad has 900k subscribers and according to the dude EU is two years away from collapse and open racial war because of immigration and the left since at least 2012 but none of that has realized. But a lot of people out there like his takes so he has subscribers.

edgyquant 4y ago

Russia isn’t getting richer though and has been losing an attrition war for months. 100k isn’t that far fetched considering

funnymony 4y ago
I read that methodology of counting dead issuuch: 50 acme tanks destroyed -> one acme tank crew comprises of N men -> number of dead is 50xN. (Minus men seen run away in time)

wwtrv 4y ago

You do know what the word casualty means? The US 100k estimate includes the wounded, captured and MIA besides those who died.

layer8 4y ago

They didn’t write 100K dead, but 100K killed or wounded, which doesn’t seem implausible. Obviously the large majority of those 100K is merely injured, not dead.

UncleEntity 4y ago

> Fwiw the US has given about 25% of it's 155mm shells to Ukraine… Which doesn’t matter. When I was on active duty (during the Cold War) at the end of the fiscal year they would send us out with obscene amounts of ammo to use because if it didn’t get used the budget would get cut for the next year. Don’t you worry about the ammunition manufacturers, they are doing fine.

988747 4y ago
Define "obscene amounts". Ukraine shoots like 6.000 155mm rounds per day. US manufacturers can't produce that much, US government is currently doing market survey for potential new manufacturers, because Army reserves were severely depleted.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

CamperBob2 4y ago

No one is going to fuck with the US regardless of how many 155mm shells we have. Ukraine can't say the same, because unlike the US, they agreed to unilateral nuclear disarmament. After all, we told them we had their backs. What could possibly go wrong?

funnymony 4y ago
In a way, current support can be viewed as fulfilment of budapest memorandum obligations.

AntiRemoteWork 4y ago

orwin 4y ago

Casualty =! KIA. 100k casualty would mean between 20k and 33k KIA depending on if the army is on the offense and if the medical supply are well distributed. Russia isn't getting richer, everyone is getting poorer because of this conflict (it's econ 101). I also know someone in the French military industry (big wig at Thales) who is extremely happy of how the russian equipment performed and actively recruit right now because he knows that even if the conflict end quickly, there is now way Russia keep its second place as world arms dealers, and already have a selling point about how the only russian equipment that wasn't disappointing used Thales optics, electronics and/or avionics. Don't know if it's real, but it seems backed by data and i don't see why he would lie to me (he knows i'm not interested).

wwtrv 4y ago
Rising oil prices did benefit Russia immensely, though. IIRC their budget revenue even increased during the first half of 22. They shouldn't be doing that well now anymore (with falling prices and increasing restrictions). Of course it depends if EU will resume buying Russian gas at a large scale when/if current storage runs out.
- orwin 4y ago
  Rising oil price have an effect on the world productive system, that's why we have decades of evidence oil having very low elasticity of demand, but also of supply. Rising oil price might have benefited Russia's budget, but not its productive system.