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It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia
- giantdude 4y agoNYPD budget: ~11 Billion Ukraine military budget: ~6 Billion. And I still have to dodge motorcycles going the wrong way through red light in bike paths.
- CamperBob2 4y agoHoly hell, $11B? Is that correct?
- aaronbrethorst 4y agoYep https://www.nyclu.org/en/press-releases/nyclu-statement-fy23-nyc-budget https://www.nyclu.org/en/press-releases/nyclu-statement-fy23...
- CamperBob2 4y agoWhat the actual metric fuck.
- UncleSlacky 4y agoThis is why you need to defund the police.
- throwawaywu 4y agoIn some places in America the police are vastly over funded, but in other places we have much lower police to citizen ratios than NYC. Police defunding in Seattle would be a disaster for example.
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- Ralfp 4y agoUS Coast Guard has ~13 Billion USD in budget, operates across the globe (there are USCG cutters both on Japan Sea and Black Sea) and is 5th or 6th strongest navy in the world: https://www.uscg.mil/budget/ https://www.uscg.mil/budget/
- yakaccount4 4y agoThe price of obliterating Russia's army is $1 more for gas. Pretty good.
- jmnicolas 4y agoAlternative title: Russia is getting richer while not being defeated by the US. 100k deaths is pure BS sourced by nothing except some propagandists wishful thinking. This kind of number would be impossible for Russia to hide we would have massive proofs. Fwiw the US has given about 25% of it's 155mm shells to Ukraine and hasn't the capacity to replenish it at a good rate. They're buying shells to South Korea now. Source : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljhWeHWN1QM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljhWeHWN1QM
- enraged_camel 4y agoYou complain about sources and then post some no-name youtuber as your source?
- jmnicolas 4y agoSo you define 400k subscribers and 44k views as "noname Youtuber"? Especially in the domain of OSINT, he's actually quite big.
- mopsi 4y agoSubscriber count, view count (neither of which is impressive), and being "big among people who read wikipedia" don't make that channel a higher quality source than any armchair general you can encounter at a bar. Even by Youtube standards, the linked video isn't very good compared to channels like Perun. There's now a terrible number of channels reading off top 3 Google search results with the pathos of an expert.
- Ralfp 4y agoThe argument is that YouTube rewards what hivemind thinks is interesting and not what's correct or accurate. Sargon of Akkad has 900k subscribers and according to the dude EU is two years away from collapse and open racial war because of immigration and the left since at least 2012 but none of that has realized. But a lot of people out there like his takes so he has subscribers.
- edgyquant 4y ago
- LAC-Tech 4y agoHow horribly cynical. Ukrainian lives are not worth "peanuts". The real "defeat" would have been enough credible deterrence by western forces that Russia would never have attempted this, with enough diplomacy they would not have felt the need to. It's a travesty that this war ever happened, no one should feel like a winner.
- wlesieutre 4y agoIt’s obviously talking about the cost of the US’s support, if you read the first sentence > The cost-benefit analysis of US support for Ukraine is incontrovertible
- thfuran 4y agoAnd wouldn't averting the war have been even better support for Ukraine?
- edgyquant 4y agoSure if doing so ends with a self determining Ukraine. It ain’t the US who is to blame for not averting a war Russia started
- kova12 4y agoAre you saying USA provoked the war, or somehow haven't done enough to avert it? If you remember events before the beginning of confrontation, it seems that USA was bending outwards trying to prevent invasion. What else could we do?
- thfuran 4y ago>Are you saying USA provoked the war, No > or somehow haven't done enough to avert it? Well, it's patently obvious that the war wasn't averted. >If you remember events before the beginning of confrontation, it seems that USA was bending outwards trying to prevent invasion. I don't remember the US doing much at all when this started several years ago.
- post_break 4y agoThe government, arms companies, watching how the weapons are being used in near real time, in HD, with drone footage, and sometimes annoying music overlaid is probably priceless.
- UncleSlacky 4y agoSure is! https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/11/17/us-empire-views-ukrainians-and-russians-as-lab-rats-for-weapons-testing/ https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2022/11/17/us-empire-views-ukra...
- jemmyw 4y agoThat doesn't make that much sense. The US isn't sending Ukraine their advanced weapons, only old and/or moderately simple equipment. HIMARS is the only interesting one so far and they've given short range rockets. I think for the Western military it's the intelligence about the state of the Russian forces that has been invaluable. But they know now, so it's not of much ongoing use.
- coding123 4y agoI mean I do wonder if the 80b could have at least purchased a used RV for every homeless person in California
- bicijay 4y agoI mean, would it solve the homeless problem in california? I dont think so to be honest, its a much more systematic problem
- mormegil 4y agoYou might be interested in this review/discussion/polemic of a book on mostly this topic: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-san-fransicko https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-san-fransi...
- edgyquant 4y agoYour ideology is evil
- coding123 4y agoHow so? Homelessness is killing 20 US citizens per day.
- edgyquant 4y agoIt's an irrelevant whataboutism attempting to use emotions to convince people that abandoning an ally to conquest and cultural genocide is the "moral thing to do." Coupled with ignorant populism to boot. It's evil.
- coding123 4y agoIt's not irrelevant, I've been screaming about the homeless problem for years on here and no one wants to do anything substantial. How about you get your war and we get homeless relief - since the solution is to just print non-existent money anyway? You really don't care about the homeless which I believe is evil too.
- 29athrowaway 4y agoRussia defeated itself. They gave Putin all the power, Putin surrounded himself with yes-men, then corruption made sure nothing gets done to specifications. In paper, Russia was a military superpower, in practice, all the resources got stolen along the way.
- dandanua 4y ago> all the resources got stolen along the way and transferred to the West
- akira2501 4y agoSo, we just have to entirely ignore the human cost of war. Someone has to take that weapon system into the field and fire it at someone else. You can distract yourself with the small price tag of the munitions if you like, but you are essentially discussing the act of killing. Wouldn't it also "cost us peanuts" to pursue peace? This is a bizarre calculus to apply from the sidelines.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y agoThe human cost of Russia's aggression would happen regardless. Ukraine wants to defend themselves and wants weapons. The US and allies send weapons. Everyone wins except Russia.
- akira2501 4y agoI wouldn't consider losing territory equivalent to losing lives. Also, isn't the opinion of those living in Crimea important? Ukraine wants to defend themselves _and_ to retake Crimea, something they cannot do on their own, so they need weapons. Who is winning is not at all clear. When this started, it was assumed that Russia would collapse very quickly, so far this has not happened.. at what point is this strategy reconsidered? Is the possibility of reconsideration already at hand, and are articles such as these meant to serve as a bulwark against breaks for peace? It makes me suspicious.
- funnymony 4y agoAssumption is that russia does not want peace. It wants a pause during which it can rebuild its military strength and repeat the war again, until ukraine de facto looses sovereignty (becomes similar to belarus)
- detaro 4y ago> I wouldn't consider losing territory equivalent to losing lives. Russian behavior in occupied regions makes it quite obvious that those are equivalent, at least for people who dare to not identify as Russian. > Also, isn't the opinion of those living in Crimea important? To a degree, although you need to consider policies of expelling non-Russians from Crimea and intentionally settling Russians there in how much stock you give that. > When this started, it was assumed that Russia would collapse very quickly, There was also fairly widespread surprise how well Ukraine held on.
- sien 4y agoIt also cost peanuts for the Taliban to defeat NATO and the US. Meanwhile the US and their NATO allies spent, what, a trillion on that war? Dedicated defense seems to be very good now at defeating foreign troops.
- ChrisMarshallNY 4y agoIt didn't cost peanuts. A lot of them died. Same with the NVA. We lost 58,000, but they lost well north of a million (Vietnam -I suspect the ratio is even higher for Afghanistan). Much as I dislike their philosophy, I have to have respect for their dedication and discipline. It has to be pretty damn difficult to keep fighting against a military machine like that, when everyone around is in a hundred pieces.
- odd_perfect_num 4y agoThe Taliban achieved their war goals, but they didn't eliminate or degrade the US ability to conduct offensive operations. They failed to put a dent in our tank fleet or airforce (to name two components). In that sense, the two conflicts have been very different. Ukraine is waging a conventional war, whereas the Taliban used asymmetric guerilla warfare.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y agoWhat dedicated defenses did the Taliban have? The only thing the Taliban did successfully was wait for the US to leave.
- m0llusk 4y agoThis is comparing a war over European territory to a war that accompanied an attempt at nation building far outside of Europe.
- Synaesthesia 4y ago100 billion dollars in one year is apparently peanuts now
- edgyquant 4y agoConsidering it cost 2 trillion for a war on terror that yielding little results: yeah the defeat of our closest peer rival for a fraction of that is an economical buy
- justapassenger 4y agoFor defeating biggest strategic enemy of last 100 years? Totally. Check how much USA spent to defeat Soviet Union during Cold War.
- Synaesthesia 4y agoMeanwhile they could have accepted the many times which the Soviet Union tried to accommodate the west from Stalin to Krushchev and afterwards.
- toast0 4y ago> Ukraine is no Vietnam or Afghanistan for the US, but it is exactly that for Russia. In some ways it is similar to an Afghanistan for the US; the US supplied arms to Afghanistan in the Soviet-Afghanistan war. The conditions are different here, I think, and I hope this doesn't foreshadow a future US-Ukraine war.
- frontman1988 4y agoRussia can't be defeated as long as it has nukes. It's in the US and the entire world's interest(except Ukraine and few european countries) to not make Russia into another North Korea. With Russia's historical ally winter arriving, the enemies of Russia are not gonna have it as easy.
- vorpalhex 4y agoI think we'll settle for them expending all their arms in Ukraine and losing their aggressive invasion. Winter cuts both ways.
- funnymony 4y agoUsa had nukes during vietnam war.
- mcphage 4y ago> Russia can't be defeated as long as it has nukes. Why not? The Soviet Union lost a few times, even with nukes. The US has lost repeatedly, even with nukes. I don't know why nukes would prevent it from losing. Prevent it from being taken over, maybe, but that's not really what's at stake here.
- hsn915 4y agoI keep hearing from Western pundits that Russian economy is tanking, but isn't it the other way around? The US economy is doing very bad, energy prices are skyrocketing, and Europe is looking into a freezing cold winter. Meanwhile Russia has surplus energy and is making global strategic alliances with China and India and other potentially smaller player. Turkey is playing the role of a neutral mediator between Russia and the West. The US doesn't even have its house in order: massively polarized society with the gap between left/right drifting wider and deeper.
- poisonborz 4y agoRussia just showed very clear to the whole world how weak it is. In this light, non-western players happily take their gas/oil/money and trade, but it's them who make the rules and the prices. Soon they will make economical inroads and make the country dependent - even faster if the government destabilizes. They will be as free and self-sufficient on the world stage as North Korea.
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- it_citizen 4y agoUS and Europe economies are not doing well but it is high likely that Russia will do way worse: > According to independent analysis by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2022 will be a bad year for the Russian economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to drop by at least 5.5% in the best scenario to almost 9% in the worst scenario. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanct...
- layer8 4y agoRussia is officially in a recession now, and by their own forecasts will remain so throughout 2023 at least. Europe and the US are not quite in a recession yet, although close to it. GDP growth is predicted to be around 0% for both Europe and the US in 2023. Russia is doing clearly worse right now.
- jcbrand 4y agoIf we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia would perhaps be of the order of $100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat. So spending just $40bn a year, erodes a threat value of $100-150bn, a two-to-three time return Does the money given to Ukraine come out of the defense budget, or does it come on top? If it's the latter, then the above sentence makes no sense. $40bn is less than $100, but so what when it's in addition to it?
- rufus_foreman 4y agoWe're at war with Russia? I must have missed it, was there ever a vote on that? When does the War Powers Act kick in?
- m0llusk 4y agoWar with Russia is exactly what the strategy of supporting Ukraine avoids.
- rufus_foreman 4y agoI have no idea what your comment means. Explain to me how the US defeats Russia while avoiding war with Russia. Fight a proxy war with a nuclear power, see what happens! I would prefer not to see what happens.
- soniman 4y agoGreat argument to cut US defense budget in half. If we can defeat Russia for pennies the US is vastly overpaying to defend against paper tiger enemies.
- josephcsible 4y agoNot everyone evil is as incompetent as the Russian government/military.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 4y agoWould you want to fight an evenly matched adversary? I sure as hell wouldn't.
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- diimdeep 4y ago> Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, public policy institution based in Washington DC > CEPA’s mission is to ensure a strong and enduring transatlantic alliance rooted in democratic values and principles with strategic vision, foresight, and impact. Through cutting-edge research, analysis, and engagement, we provide innovative insight on trends affecting democracy, security, and defense to government officials and agencies In other words, it is a US government sponsored, CIA think tank about manipulation of European countries, and CIA/NATO unofficial media publisher.
- my_city 4y agoThey provide innovative insights rooted in democratic values though!!!1!1!111 /sarcasm
- yucky 4y ago> In other words, it is a US government sponsored, CIA think tank about manipulation of European countries, and CIA/NATO unofficial media publisher. Makes sense, since that's where the 2014 Ukrainian coup originated too ;)
- mike_k 4y agoThis is a very bold statement. Care to provide any evidence? I was there. What about you?
- SideburnsOfDoom 4y agoFYI, the account that you are replying to has a very long track record of pushing this talking point (and other crank opinions), so do not think that you are engaging in a good faith discussion with someone who can be convinced (1) - if they could be, it would have happened long ago. They're here to push that opinion into the public sphere. That account was even banned from posting for a while (2), thankfully. Why it was allowed back, I do not know. 1) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32314627 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32314627 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32990026 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32990026 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32314574 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32314574 2) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32323579 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32323579
- rainworld 4y ago“Why not start talking about [peace talks] before you throw another 100,000 lives into the abyss?” the second U.S. official said.[0] You can have of course have 100,000 KIA and be winning regardless, but, in that case, why would the US be pushing for negotiations now? You’d have to be very naive to think this is humanitarian concern. So maybe that picture painted for Western audiences is not accurate after all? [0]: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/14/u-s-ukraine-milley-negotiations-00066777 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/14/u-s-ukraine-milley-...
- koheripbal 4y agoThe sad reality of peace is often that public opinion drives each party's willingness to negotiate peace. Putin cannot pull out of Ukraine without being overthrown, and Zelensky cannot concede land to Russia without similarity losing power. So the two nations will continue to fight and many tens of thousands more will die until the populations are ready to accept compromise.
- nine_zeros 4y agoThe biggest win, imo, is nipping a potential WW3 in the bud. If Russia were winning, it would have been emboldened to attack more European countries. It might have emboldened China to attach Taiwan. Putin was showing traits of early hitler where he was up to annex whatever the hell he thought was next. But unlike hitler, Putin is losing badly. A weak Putin Russia also means that there is no chance that Russia attacks any other country.
- dahdum 4y agoI wish the media, especially conservative media, focused more on this point rather than partisan politics. Putin’s hubris coupled with Ukraine’s bravery is reshaping the world for decades to come. Instead of fomenting chaos, the war is expanding Western influence, solidarity, and military power. There is no true victory for Russia, even somehow seizing all of Ukraine, at this point, would still be an economic, geopolitical, and military loss over the following decades. China gains a northern vassal and discounted energy, but I question whether that makes up for the setback of a reinvigorated Western alliance. All this for Putin’s pride? He set Ukraine up for the role of morally righteous heroic defenders, and they are exceeding all expectations in living up to it. Giving the West an existential threat with a moral cause to support that aligns with their long term pure self interest is dumbfounding.
- lamontcg 4y agoThe war could also be undermining corruption as viable world leadership.
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- stevespang 4y ago
- 6t6t6t6 4y agoHas Russia been defeated, though? They may not have fulfilled all their main goals to a 100%. However, they seem to be still occupying large amounts of territory that belonged to the Ukrainian government, including most of the Dombas and the water sources of Crimea.
- dahdum 4y ago> Has Russia been defeated, though? No, but even a Pyrrhic victory appears out of reach. A 100% instant capitulation by Ukraine wouldn't undue most sanctions, NATO expansion, Western military buildup, their tarnished military reputation, or even a semblance of their recent soft power. It's projected to take 10+ years to create the manufacturing base needed just to start rebuilding their former military strength, dependent as it was on Western sources. I don't think anyone sees a way out of this that approaches a "win" from the Russian perspective.
- _kbh_ 4y ago> Has Russia been defeated, though? Not yet, but every week they occupy less and less territory, lose more soldiers and more equipment. > They may not have fulfilled all their main goals to a 100%. However, they seem to be still occupying large amounts of territory that belonged to the Ukrainian government, including most of the Dombas and the water sources of Crimea. They don't seem so confident in keeping Crimea, they are building defences in it already.