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At the beginning of the article is says: "But it does not explain how adequate land to reach a 90% clean electricity penetration can be acquired or how reliabi

by mionhe 4y ago

At the beginning of the article is says: "But it does not explain how adequate land to reach a 90% clean electricity penetration can be acquired or how reliability will be protected beyond that 90% penetration, stakeholders acknowledged." I'm confused that they can put a time frame on a problem they have no idea how to solve yet.

epistasis 4y ago
These are roadmaps about how to get somewhere, but the map is not the terrain, and there are a few parts that are known to only be 90% mapped. That doesn't say that the 10% unmapped contains an impassable cliff or easily crossable plains, but we will likely find out.
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> confused that they can put a time frame on a problem they have no idea how to solve yet The purpose of the study [1] was to explore what a realistic solution would look like. Then you can work backwards and identify roadblocks. For example, if land acquisition is really the sole bottleneck, there are a myriad of legislative solutions that could address it. [1] https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/nrel-study-identifies-opportunities-and-challenges-achieving-us-transformational-goal https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/nrel-study-identifies-o...
- zamalek 4y ago
  Or just put stuff on water.
bjt2n3904 4y ago
You'd think what they want is a solution to switch over to renewable energy sources that can meet or exceed current demands at comparative costs. No, they just want to get rid of fossil fuels. It doesn't matter if the new system can meet the demand at all, or how much it will cost. Look at California. Banning lawn mowers and ICE cars. Their power grid can't even support EV charging, and they're sending out notices asking people to charge their cars at off hours. It doesn't have to work. It just has to disrupt oil at any cost, even if the cost is human suffering.
- epistasis 4y ago
  That does not represent anything in the article. > Their power grid can't even support EV charging, This is categorically false, and a ridiculous thing to say.
  - infamouscow 4y ago
    > The California Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, sent a Flex Alert asking all residents to voluntarily reduce their electricity use between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. on Wednesday and Thursday and warned that more alerts were possible through the Labor Day weekend. > A spokeswoman for the governor, Erin Mellon, said that the request to avoid charging electrical vehicles has been misrepresented by critics of California’s efforts to curb emissions. > “We’re not saying don’t charge them,” she said. “We’re just saying don’t charge them between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-flex-alert-ac-ev-charging.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-f...
    - bryanlarsen 4y ago
      Air conditioners were the problem, not EV's.
      - shapefrog 4y ago
        The solution for air conditioners ... more solar power.
        epistasis 4y ago
        Except for those hours 4-9... the solution to that is more storage, a solution which is ready today, shipping, and in demand in excess of current supply, even though supply is ramping up at tremendous speeds.
        smileysteve 4y ago
ClumsyPilot 4y ago
> I'm confused that they can put a time frame on a problem they have no idea how to solve yet. You are writing on a developer forum, they work in Agile and ruotinely provide estimates or work to deadlines when business does not even know the requirements of their system, let alone how to build most of it.
- lazide 4y ago
  If a developer tells you they can deliver by x, and they also don't know how to do it, what is the level of confidence you have that will occur?
  - epistasis 4y ago
    This paper is saying they can deliver by x, if y is figured out. It's a perfectly cromulent way to make a projection.
    - lazide 4y ago
      Where we have no idea of how expensive or not y will be, or how long it will take to do it. Like saying ‘The UI will be ready in 6 months if the backend is figured out’. Also not a realistic projection. Don’t get me wrong, it’s something. But the error bars are larger than the graph.
      - epistasis 4y ago
        I'm sorry, but that characterization of 90% versus 100% is not remotely fair. "Only 90% unless people let us buy enough land" is a far cry from not having any clue at all.
        lazide 4y ago
        It isn’t just land though, it’s also storage and other tech. Aka ‘the backend’. Or ‘the other 90%’
  - 4y ago

by mionhe 4y ago

epistasis 4y ago

These are roadmaps about how to get somewhere, but the map is not the terrain, and there are a few parts that are known to only be 90% mapped. That doesn't say that the 10% unmapped contains an impassable cliff or easily crossable plains, but we will likely find out.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago

> confused that they can put a time frame on a problem they have no idea how to solve yet The purpose of the study [1] was to explore what a realistic solution would look like. Then you can work backwards and identify roadblocks. For example, if land acquisition is really the sole bottleneck, there are a myriad of legislative solutions that could address it. [1] https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/nrel-study-identifies-opportunities-and-challenges-achieving-us-transformational-goal https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/nrel-study-identifies-o...

zamalek 4y ago
Or just put stuff on water.

bjt2n3904 4y ago

You'd think what they want is a solution to switch over to renewable energy sources that can meet or exceed current demands at comparative costs. No, they just want to get rid of fossil fuels. It doesn't matter if the new system can meet the demand at all, or how much it will cost. Look at California. Banning lawn mowers and ICE cars. Their power grid can't even support EV charging, and they're sending out notices asking people to charge their cars at off hours. It doesn't have to work. It just has to disrupt oil at any cost, even if the cost is human suffering.

epistasis 4y ago
That does not represent anything in the article. > Their power grid can't even support EV charging, This is categorically false, and a ridiculous thing to say.
- infamouscow 4y ago
  > The California Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, sent a Flex Alert asking all residents to voluntarily reduce their electricity use between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. on Wednesday and Thursday and warned that more alerts were possible through the Labor Day weekend. > A spokeswoman for the governor, Erin Mellon, said that the request to avoid charging electrical vehicles has been misrepresented by critics of California’s efforts to curb emissions. > “We’re not saying don’t charge them,” she said. “We’re just saying don’t charge them between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-flex-alert-ac-ev-charging.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-f...
  - bryanlarsen 4y ago
    Air conditioners were the problem, not EV's.
    - shapefrog 4y ago
      The solution for air conditioners ... more solar power.
      - epistasis 4y ago
        Except for those hours 4-9... the solution to that is more storage, a solution which is ready today, shipping, and in demand in excess of current supply, even though supply is ramping up at tremendous speeds.
        smileysteve 4y ago

ClumsyPilot 4y ago

> I'm confused that they can put a time frame on a problem they have no idea how to solve yet. You are writing on a developer forum, they work in Agile and ruotinely provide estimates or work to deadlines when business does not even know the requirements of their system, let alone how to build most of it.

lazide 4y ago
If a developer tells you they can deliver by x, and they also don't know how to do it, what is the level of confidence you have that will occur?
- epistasis 4y ago
  This paper is saying they can deliver by x, if y is figured out. It's a perfectly cromulent way to make a projection.
  - lazide 4y ago
    Where we have no idea of how expensive or not y will be, or how long it will take to do it. Like saying ‘The UI will be ready in 6 months if the backend is figured out’. Also not a realistic projection. Don’t get me wrong, it’s something. But the error bars are larger than the graph.
    - epistasis 4y ago
      I'm sorry, but that characterization of 90% versus 100% is not remotely fair. "Only 90% unless people let us buy enough land" is a far cry from not having any clue at all.
      - lazide 4y ago
        It isn’t just land though, it’s also storage and other tech. Aka ‘the backend’. Or ‘the other 90%’
- 4y ago