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Are you concerned about the falling ratio of Bitcoin to USD? Or is the hope that this storm removes a lot of the scam artists/ponzi schemes and the ratio stabi

Are you concerned about the falling ratio of Bitcoin to USD? Or is the hope that this storm removes a lot of the scam artists/ponzi schemes and the ratio stabilizes in a way? Edit to add: it seems like the relative ratio doesn't matter much for the scenarios you describe because it is much better than the swings in local currency compared to USD.

kragen 4y ago
Bitcoin has in fact lost more value than the Argentine peso (or any other fiat currency) over the last year, and this is its largest fall ever (it has fallen over 70% twice before, but I think this is the first time it's ever fallen 73%), and this is a big concern for its use as a savings vehicle, though only a minor inconvenience for its use for international remittances. Also, because the US$ has itself lost about 10% of its value over that last year, the fall is even worse in real terms than in nominal terms, closer to 75%. Over other periods of time, like the last two years or the last six months, this is not the case (that is, the peso has done worse than Bitcoin over those periods), and certainly anyone with savings in Bitcoin is hoping that a year from now it is at or near its current value, or even above it, rather than having fallen another 70% to US$4500. But it could. There is no guarantee, and my observation of periods of past Bitcoin volatility does not make me optimistic that scam artists will go away as a result. There is no prospect that the peso will have equal or higher value a year from now; both the general dynamics of central-bank-controlled fiat currencies and the specific pathologies of Argentina militate strongly against it. The long-run expected value of the peso is zero — it's not a question of whether it will inflate over time, just how fast. Plausibly ruining the peso's usefulness as a unit of long-term account or a vehicle for savings is a worthwhile tradeoff for improving its usefulness as a medium of exchange; that opinion certainly has widespread acceptance among economists. So clearly anyone who invests their savings in pesos will inherit the wind; it's possible that whoever invests their savings in Bitcoin will as well. But maybe not.
- imtringued 4y ago
  If these people followed the savings logic they would have bought and sold RAI. Why would anyone want to put their savings in an extremely volatile cryptocurrency?
  - kragen 4y ago
    Maybe you mean DAI? I don't think Rai is particularly stable. Bitcoin is widely enough used to be a viable option. In Argentina, Tether is even more widely used. DAI and Rai aren't.

kragen 4y ago

Bitcoin has in fact lost more value than the Argentine peso (or any other fiat currency) over the last year, and this is its largest fall ever (it has fallen over 70% twice before, but I think this is the first time it's ever fallen 73%), and this is a big concern for its use as a savings vehicle, though only a minor inconvenience for its use for international remittances. Also, because the US$ has itself lost about 10% of its value over that last year, the fall is even worse in real terms than in nominal terms, closer to 75%. Over other periods of time, like the last two years or the last six months, this is not the case (that is, the peso has done worse than Bitcoin over those periods), and certainly anyone with savings in Bitcoin is hoping that a year from now it is at or near its current value, or even above it, rather than having fallen another 70% to US$4500. But it could. There is no guarantee, and my observation of periods of past Bitcoin volatility does not make me optimistic that scam artists will go away as a result. There is no prospect that the peso will have equal or higher value a year from now; both the general dynamics of central-bank-controlled fiat currencies and the specific pathologies of Argentina militate strongly against it. The long-run expected value of the peso is zero — it's not a question of whether it will inflate over time, just how fast. Plausibly ruining the peso's usefulness as a unit of long-term account or a vehicle for savings is a worthwhile tradeoff for improving its usefulness as a medium of exchange; that opinion certainly has widespread acceptance among economists. So clearly anyone who invests their savings in pesos will inherit the wind; it's possible that whoever invests their savings in Bitcoin will as well. But maybe not.

imtringued 4y ago
If these people followed the savings logic they would have bought and sold RAI. Why would anyone want to put their savings in an extremely volatile cryptocurrency?
- kragen 4y ago
  Maybe you mean DAI? I don't think Rai is particularly stable. Bitcoin is widely enough used to be a viable option. In Argentina, Tether is even more widely used. DAI and Rai aren't.