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> 3. Inflation. Instead of being a hedge on inflation, cryptocoins collapsed in the face of it. I don't disagree with the other points but... That one remains
by TacticalCoder 4y ago
> 3. Inflation. Instead of being a hedge on inflation, cryptocoins collapsed in the face of it.
I don't disagree with the other points but... That one remains to be seen. Bitcoin was precisely created as a gigantic middle finger to the central bank's endless money printing to bail out the financial system. That's the message in the genesis block ("Chancellor on the brink of second bank bail out": it's as political as it gets). The early adopters, before the poker players (Bitcoin was used to facilitate players-to-players transfer on poker sites before Silkroad and drugs where I thing IIRC), were libertarians and anarchists fed up with the FED.
This hasn't changed, so far. There are only going to ever be 21 million Bitcoin. Ethereum, at the moment, is deflationary (more ETHs are burned than created through proof-of-stake).
You get, what, 5% on your USD: great. But real inflation is, say, 12%. So that's still 7% down.
There's a price at which people are going to enter BTC and Ethereum with the promise that it won't be inflated to death.
Many may not like it. "Inflation in the two digits, good!. Helicopter Ben: savior of the economy. Bank bail outs mutualizing losses: perfection by our beloved state!".
But there are still people out there who see the value in something that cannot be printed at will.
I'd say especially so when the FTX and Tether of this world, at times in bed with officials, are printing at will their worthless token and dumping them on retail with the blessing of the New York Times.
> There are still inflation worries in the economy.
Precisely.
I'm certainly not keeping all my life savings in cryptocurrencies. I was all in cash after the war in Ukraine started and I'm certainly enjoying the firesales on many stocks right now (Stanley, Makita, ASML, Intel, 3M and a shitload of stocks I handpicked are totally on sale: it was time to sale when everybody was yelling "TINA" and the war in Ukraine started and it's time to buy now that everybody is yelling "falling knifes, it may fall another 90%"... Yeah, sure. If all the companies I handpicked are falling 90% more, I'll load up the truck and retire in a fancy yacht in a few years).
But this entire USDT/FTX scam (with the blessing of the SEC and CFTC), these shitty tokens created out of SBF's farts (sorry but it's how it is) and these centralized exchanges makes me want to go bullish on BTC / ETH. I'm waiting for tether to go bust to go in bigger.
Many hate it here: BTC may not be worth much but "your keys your coins" and as long as it's not totally outlawed, nobody is going to prevent me from storing BTC (mo matter their value) on a hardware wallet.
And f--k fractional reserve banking, f--k bail-ins (Cyprus), f--k the vicious states stealing people's money (Spain, where banks offered crazy return rates to their customers then defaulted on the principal) and certainly f--k mutualized bank bailouts.
I have zero confidence in USD / EUR. I have zero confidence in banks. I believe in stocks and, yes, in BTC and ETH on my own hardware wallet.
- dragontamer 4y ago> You get, what, 5% on your USD: great. But real inflation is, say, 12%. So that's still 7% down. Sure. But lets say you put $100,000 into BTC last year, exactly 1-year ago. BTC's price on Nov 17, 2021 was $60,3xx or so. So you'd have 1.66 BTC. Today, that BTC is worth $16,650 or so. Or $27,639 Then, real inflation is... I don't think 12% but I don't feel like arguing. So I'll use your numbers. According to your 12% inflation number, you're at $24322.32 in 2021 dollars. That is to say, if I stuck with US Dollars, I'd largely have most of my money. If you used BTC, you'd have lost most of your money. --------- We've had the big inflation event that the BTC community was "hoping" for for years. And BTC *FAILED* the test. Everyone who bet on an "inflation hedge" lost most of their money. > I was all in cash after the war in Ukraine started I bought oil. An oldie but a goodie strategy. Wars need oil, and Ukraine/Russia have substantial oil trade, so I knew that oil prices would rise. Also, because oil is a huge component of inflation, its... like... actually an inflation hedge? (EDIT: I guess others could have bought food futures, like grain and/or corn, given the huge amount of Farmland in Ukraine that's been hampered by the war, plus also as an inflation hedge since Food is another major component of inflation. That would have done well too)
- ManuelKiessling 4y ago> I have zero confidence in USD / EUR. I have zero confidence in banks. I believe in stocks and, yes, in BTC and ETH on my own hardware wallet. I’m eager to learn at which institutions you plan to buy and sell your stocks, and which currency you are planning to use to do so.
- adammarples 4y agoThis is quite funny. What is a stock but a claim on a future income stream of usd/eur?
- JohnFen 4y agoSo you're into it for political reasons as much as anything else?
- imtringued 4y ago>Bitcoin was precisely created as a gigantic middle finger to the central bank's endless money printing to bail out the financial system If the Fed ran the dollar like Bitcoin the US economy would disappear and be replaced by speculators. If anything it proves that the concept of combining both the medium of exchange store of value function into one currency is a massive failure in either direction. If people were rational then countries like Argentina could have abolished inflation and deflation by separating the medium of exchange and store of value functions.by now but since people love inflation and deflation so much they get what they deserve.