6 ms·

According to this study https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ there is no increase in Myocarditis cases among unva

According to this study https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ there is no increase in Myocarditis cases among unvaccinated people who have contracted Covid-19. This study tracked 196,992 people which is a huge number, so the data here is quite good and clear. Contracting Covid-19 does not put you at increased risk for Myocarditis, the same cannot be said when evaluating a population that simply received the vaccination.

AnimalMuppet 4y ago
Now, to balance between you and the OP: Great, Covid looks like it won't give me myocarditis. It can still kill me, though. So now we have to balance a "may give me myocarditis" vaccine against a "may kill me, but won't give me myocarditis" virus. You can't make the trade-off solely on myocarditis.
- sfusato 4y ago
  You forgot the "may give me myocarditis (and covid might still kill me)" on one end of the balance though.
  - bluGill 4y ago
    Then we have to account for the much reduced risk of that though. sure it can, but relative risk is important. Covid when vaccinated is far more likely to kill you than all possible combinations of the vaccine and whatever else.
    - hitpointdrew 4y ago
      > Then we have to account for the much reduced risk of that though I fail to see any evidence of "much reduced risk". We know before vaccinations existed some people died, some people were a-symptomatic. After mass vaccination campaigns, same results. Have the deaths gone down? Sure, but there are obvious factors, outside of vaccination, that are certainly contributing to that, if not wholly responsible for it. We know the virus has been getting less deadly with each new strain, we know that putting people on ventilators and cranking them up was 100% the wrong treatment. The media has largely stopped beating the fear drum, there are no more death counters up on the news stations 24/7 so people aren't freaking-the-fuck-out. I highly suspect you could have given out placebos instead and would have seen the same results.
      - enragedcacti 4y ago
        > I fail to see any evidence of "much reduced risk". If you just do a basic per-capita analysis the reduced risk of death is in the range of 5-16x depending on age group and vaccinated or vaccinated+boosted. There are obviously confounding variables (do vaccinated people behave differently? are healthier people the ones getting the vaccines?) but I would argue that those numbers are a pretty big W for vaccines as far as risk reduction goes. And of course that is just deaths. You could certainly look at numbers for severity of infection or long-covid outcomes to further measure the efficacy of the vaccines. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-covid-deaths-for-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-co...
        hitpointdrew 4y ago
        >If you just do a basic per-capita analysis the reduced risk of death is in the range 5-16x I am not questioning that, but couldn't that 5-16x be contributed to the latest strains being far less deadly that the first few strains, much better and accessible treatments (monoclonal antibodies), safer hospital practices (not putting people on ventilators so quickly/easily), etc.? How can we be so sure that the majority of that 5-16x was from vaccination?
        enragedcacti 4y ago
        Because that rate of reduction is in comparison to the "control" group of unvaccinated people who are exposed to the same strains and have access to all the same treatments and hospital practices
- SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
  > Great, Covid looks like it won't give me myocarditis. It can still kill me, ... COVID can still kill me, or give me one of a number of other long-term health issues. If myocarditis isn't one of them, it doesn't really change the risk ratio.
  - sfusato 4y ago
    Doesn't that still apply to someone vaccinated though? "... COVID can still kill me, or give me one of a number of other long-term health issues"
    - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
      > Doesn't that still apply to someone vaccinated though? Not at close to the same rate, no. "can" would be a technically true but entirely misleading word there, as the topic of conversation is the risk ratio. "1 in 10 chance" things can happen. "1 in a million chance" things can happen, also. But these two "can" usages are not the same. You should know this. You should not be playing word games. Do you think, falsely, that COVID vaccination it totally useless? If not, why imply it?
      - sfusato 4y ago
        So, what's the risk ratio? I haven't said that it's totally useless, you simply excluded that possibility as a given. Most countries around the world have stopped recommending any further boosters to those under 50/65 years of age.
        SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
        > Most countries around that world have stopped recommending any further boosters. What makes you say that? It doesn't sound accurate at all, given that Autumn booster programs are underway in USA, UK, EU - and those are the only ones that I have checked. And what are you attempting to imply?
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  > Now, to balance between you and the OP Well, no. That's moving the goalpost. The question was if COVID was more likely to result in myocarditis than vaccines. "Yes, but" still grants "yes."
selectodude 4y ago
A more recent one disagrees. https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.059970 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA....
- anon291 4y ago
  When data disagree, then you need better studies. Certainly not blanket recommendations and requirements including firing people who refuse to comply and making it impossible to feed their families.
- hitpointdrew 4y ago
  From your study: >In 42 842 345 people receiving at least 1 dose of vaccine, 21 242 629 received 3 doses, and 5 934 153 had SARS-CoV-2 infection before or after vaccination. Myocarditis occurred in 2861 (0.007%) people, with 617 events 1 to 28 days after vaccination. Risk of myocarditis was increased in the 1 to 28 days after a first dose of ChAdOx1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09–1.62]) and a first, second, and booster dose of BNT162b2 (1.52 [95% CI, 1.24–1.85]; 1.57 [95% CI, 1.28–1.92], and 1.72 [95% CI, 1.33–2.22], respectively) but was lower than the risks after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test before or after vaccination (11.14 [95% CI, 8.64–14.36] and 5.97 [95% CI, 4.54–7.87], respectively). BEFORE OR AFTER VACCINATION. Every single person in that study was vaccinated, some of them caught covid (either before or after being vaccinated), some people did not catch covid at all. The people that were vaccinated and contracted covid fared the worst. There is no un-vaccinated group that caught covid and never took the vaccine at all in this study.
blitz_skull 4y ago
I had COVID twice, never got the vaccine (still haven't), and I was diagnosed with Myocarditis. I personally know 2 other young (< 30) males that have as well. Not "my buddy's friend" but first-circle of separation friends. All 3 of us got diagnosed with it. No other heart-related issues. I might say there's a "statistically insignificant increase", but to say there's no increase is just factually wrong. (And statistically wrong too).
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  Myocarditis existed long before covid. You can get it without covid nor the vaccine. Your anecdote is as informative as my friend who got it several years before Covid.
russdill 4y ago
You're comparing a study with 200,000 people with a study with 43,000,000 people.
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  And you're comparing a study that monitored for less than a month to one that monitored for 4 months.
  - russdill 4y ago
    Can you point me to that? The abstract isn't calling that out very clearly to me. "Inpatient myocarditis and pericarditis diagnoses were retrieved from day 10 after positive PCR. Follow-up was censored on 28 February 2021, with minimum observation of 18 days."

AnimalMuppet 4y ago

Now, to balance between you and the OP: Great, Covid looks like it won't give me myocarditis. It can still kill me, though. So now we have to balance a "may give me myocarditis" vaccine against a "may kill me, but won't give me myocarditis" virus. You can't make the trade-off solely on myocarditis.

sfusato 4y ago
You forgot the "may give me myocarditis (and covid might still kill me)" on one end of the balance though.
- bluGill 4y ago
  Then we have to account for the much reduced risk of that though. sure it can, but relative risk is important. Covid when vaccinated is far more likely to kill you than all possible combinations of the vaccine and whatever else.
  - hitpointdrew 4y ago
    > Then we have to account for the much reduced risk of that though I fail to see any evidence of "much reduced risk". We know before vaccinations existed some people died, some people were a-symptomatic. After mass vaccination campaigns, same results. Have the deaths gone down? Sure, but there are obvious factors, outside of vaccination, that are certainly contributing to that, if not wholly responsible for it. We know the virus has been getting less deadly with each new strain, we know that putting people on ventilators and cranking them up was 100% the wrong treatment. The media has largely stopped beating the fear drum, there are no more death counters up on the news stations 24/7 so people aren't freaking-the-fuck-out. I highly suspect you could have given out placebos instead and would have seen the same results.
    - enragedcacti 4y ago
      > I fail to see any evidence of "much reduced risk". If you just do a basic per-capita analysis the reduced risk of death is in the range of 5-16x depending on age group and vaccinated or vaccinated+boosted. There are obviously confounding variables (do vaccinated people behave differently? are healthier people the ones getting the vaccines?) but I would argue that those numbers are a pretty big W for vaccines as far as risk reduction goes. And of course that is just deaths. You could certainly look at numbers for severity of infection or long-covid outcomes to further measure the efficacy of the vaccines. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-covid-deaths-for-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-co...
      - hitpointdrew 4y ago
        >If you just do a basic per-capita analysis the reduced risk of death is in the range 5-16x I am not questioning that, but couldn't that 5-16x be contributed to the latest strains being far less deadly that the first few strains, much better and accessible treatments (monoclonal antibodies), safer hospital practices (not putting people on ventilators so quickly/easily), etc.? How can we be so sure that the majority of that 5-16x was from vaccination?
        enragedcacti 4y ago
        Because that rate of reduction is in comparison to the "control" group of unvaccinated people who are exposed to the same strains and have access to all the same treatments and hospital practices
SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
> Great, Covid looks like it won't give me myocarditis. It can still kill me, ... COVID can still kill me, or give me one of a number of other long-term health issues. If myocarditis isn't one of them, it doesn't really change the risk ratio.
- sfusato 4y ago
  Doesn't that still apply to someone vaccinated though? "... COVID can still kill me, or give me one of a number of other long-term health issues"
  - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
    > Doesn't that still apply to someone vaccinated though? Not at close to the same rate, no. "can" would be a technically true but entirely misleading word there, as the topic of conversation is the risk ratio. "1 in 10 chance" things can happen. "1 in a million chance" things can happen, also. But these two "can" usages are not the same. You should know this. You should not be playing word games. Do you think, falsely, that COVID vaccination it totally useless? If not, why imply it?
    - sfusato 4y ago
      So, what's the risk ratio? I haven't said that it's totally useless, you simply excluded that possibility as a given. Most countries around the world have stopped recommending any further boosters to those under 50/65 years of age.
      - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
        > Most countries around that world have stopped recommending any further boosters. What makes you say that? It doesn't sound accurate at all, given that Autumn booster programs are underway in USA, UK, EU - and those are the only ones that I have checked. And what are you attempting to imply?
nonethewiser 4y ago
> Now, to balance between you and the OP Well, no. That's moving the goalpost. The question was if COVID was more likely to result in myocarditis than vaccines. "Yes, but" still grants "yes."

selectodude 4y ago

A more recent one disagrees. https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.059970 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA....

anon291 4y ago
When data disagree, then you need better studies. Certainly not blanket recommendations and requirements including firing people who refuse to comply and making it impossible to feed their families.
hitpointdrew 4y ago
From your study: >In 42 842 345 people receiving at least 1 dose of vaccine, 21 242 629 received 3 doses, and 5 934 153 had SARS-CoV-2 infection before or after vaccination. Myocarditis occurred in 2861 (0.007%) people, with 617 events 1 to 28 days after vaccination. Risk of myocarditis was increased in the 1 to 28 days after a first dose of ChAdOx1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09–1.62]) and a first, second, and booster dose of BNT162b2 (1.52 [95% CI, 1.24–1.85]; 1.57 [95% CI, 1.28–1.92], and 1.72 [95% CI, 1.33–2.22], respectively) but was lower than the risks after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test before or after vaccination (11.14 [95% CI, 8.64–14.36] and 5.97 [95% CI, 4.54–7.87], respectively). BEFORE OR AFTER VACCINATION. Every single person in that study was vaccinated, some of them caught covid (either before or after being vaccinated), some people did not catch covid at all. The people that were vaccinated and contracted covid fared the worst. There is no un-vaccinated group that caught covid and never took the vaccine at all in this study.

blitz_skull 4y ago

I had COVID twice, never got the vaccine (still haven't), and I was diagnosed with Myocarditis. I personally know 2 other young (< 30) males that have as well. Not "my buddy's friend" but first-circle of separation friends. All 3 of us got diagnosed with it. No other heart-related issues. I might say there's a "statistically insignificant increase", but to say there's no increase is just factually wrong. (And statistically wrong too).

nonethewiser 4y ago
Myocarditis existed long before covid. You can get it without covid nor the vaccine. Your anecdote is as informative as my friend who got it several years before Covid.

russdill 4y ago

You're comparing a study with 200,000 people with a study with 43,000,000 people.

nonethewiser 4y ago
And you're comparing a study that monitored for less than a month to one that monitored for 4 months.
- russdill 4y ago
  Can you point me to that? The abstract isn't calling that out very clearly to me. "Inpatient myocarditis and pericarditis diagnoses were retrieved from day 10 after positive PCR. Follow-up was censored on 28 February 2021, with minimum observation of 18 days."