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Cool, now what's the incidence of Myocarditis and similar after COVID-19 infection? It's possible that such a vaccine causes a number of such cases, and still

Cool, now what's the incidence of Myocarditis and similar after COVID-19 infection? It's possible that such a vaccine causes a number of such cases, and still prevents a much larger number of them. In fact it also seems to be true in this case. Discussing the vaccines out of this context, is scaremongering. You're much better off taking your chances with the COVID-19 vaccine than taking your chances unvaccinated. https://www.heart.org/en/news/2022/08/22/covid-19-infection-poses-higher-risk-for-myocarditis-than-vaccines https://www.heart.org/en/news/2022/08/22/covid-19-infection-... https://openheart.bmj.com/content/9/1/e001957 https://openheart.bmj.com/content/9/1/e001957

hitpointdrew 4y ago
According to this study https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ there is no increase in Myocarditis cases among unvaccinated people who have contracted Covid-19. This study tracked 196,992 people which is a huge number, so the data here is quite good and clear. Contracting Covid-19 does not put you at increased risk for Myocarditis, the same cannot be said when evaluating a population that simply received the vaccination.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  Now, to balance between you and the OP: Great, Covid looks like it won't give me myocarditis. It can still kill me, though. So now we have to balance a "may give me myocarditis" vaccine against a "may kill me, but won't give me myocarditis" virus. You can't make the trade-off solely on myocarditis.
  - sfusato 4y ago
    You forgot the "may give me myocarditis (and covid might still kill me)" on one end of the balance though.
    - bluGill 4y ago
      Then we have to account for the much reduced risk of that though. sure it can, but relative risk is important. Covid when vaccinated is far more likely to kill you than all possible combinations of the vaccine and whatever else.
      - hitpointdrew 4y ago
        > Then we have to account for the much reduced risk of that though I fail to see any evidence of "much reduced risk". We know before vaccinations existed some people died, some people were a-symptomatic. After mass vaccination campaigns, same results. Have the deaths gone down? Sure, but there are obvious factors, outside of vaccination, that are certainly contributing to that, if not wholly responsible for it. We know the virus has been getting less deadly with each new strain, we know that putting people on ventilators and cranking them up was 100% the wrong treatment. The media has largely stopped beating the fear drum, there are no more death counters up on the news stations 24/7 so people aren't freaking-the-fuck-out. I highly suspect you could have given out placebos instead and would have seen the same results.
        enragedcacti 4y ago
        > I fail to see any evidence of "much reduced risk". If you just do a basic per-capita analysis the reduced risk of death is in the range of 5-16x depending on age group and vaccinated or vaccinated+boosted. There are obviously confounding variables (do vaccinated people behave differently? are healthier people the ones getting the vaccines?) but I would argue that those numbers are a pretty big W for vaccines as far as risk reduction goes. And of course that is just deaths. You could certainly look at numbers for severity of infection or long-covid outcomes to further measure the efficacy of the vaccines. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-covid-deaths-for-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-co...
        hitpointdrew 4y ago
        >If you just do a basic per-capita analysis the reduced risk of death is in the range 5-16x I am not questioning that, but couldn't that 5-16x be contributed to the latest strains being far less deadly that the first few strains, much better and accessible treatments (monoclonal antibodies), safer hospital practices (not putting people on ventilators so quickly/easily), etc.? How can we be so sure that the majority of that 5-16x was from vaccination?
  - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
    > Great, Covid looks like it won't give me myocarditis. It can still kill me, ... COVID can still kill me, or give me one of a number of other long-term health issues. If myocarditis isn't one of them, it doesn't really change the risk ratio.
    - sfusato 4y ago
      Doesn't that still apply to someone vaccinated though? "... COVID can still kill me, or give me one of a number of other long-term health issues"
      - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
        > Doesn't that still apply to someone vaccinated though? Not at close to the same rate, no. "can" would be a technically true but entirely misleading word there, as the topic of conversation is the risk ratio. "1 in 10 chance" things can happen. "1 in a million chance" things can happen, also. But these two "can" usages are not the same. You should know this. You should not be playing word games. Do you think, falsely, that COVID vaccination it totally useless? If not, why imply it?
        sfusato 4y ago
        So, what's the risk ratio? I haven't said that it's totally useless, you simply excluded that possibility as a given. Most countries around the world have stopped recommending any further boosters to those under 50/65 years of age.
        SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
        > Most countries around that world have stopped recommending any further boosters. What makes you say that? It doesn't sound accurate at all, given that Autumn booster programs are underway in USA, UK, EU - and those are the only ones that I have checked. And what are you attempting to imply?
  - nonethewiser 4y ago
    > Now, to balance between you and the OP Well, no. That's moving the goalpost. The question was if COVID was more likely to result in myocarditis than vaccines. "Yes, but" still grants "yes."
- selectodude 4y ago
  A more recent one disagrees. https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.059970 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA....
  - anon291 4y ago
    When data disagree, then you need better studies. Certainly not blanket recommendations and requirements including firing people who refuse to comply and making it impossible to feed their families.
  - hitpointdrew 4y ago
    From your study: >In 42 842 345 people receiving at least 1 dose of vaccine, 21 242 629 received 3 doses, and 5 934 153 had SARS-CoV-2 infection before or after vaccination. Myocarditis occurred in 2861 (0.007%) people, with 617 events 1 to 28 days after vaccination. Risk of myocarditis was increased in the 1 to 28 days after a first dose of ChAdOx1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09–1.62]) and a first, second, and booster dose of BNT162b2 (1.52 [95% CI, 1.24–1.85]; 1.57 [95% CI, 1.28–1.92], and 1.72 [95% CI, 1.33–2.22], respectively) but was lower than the risks after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test before or after vaccination (11.14 [95% CI, 8.64–14.36] and 5.97 [95% CI, 4.54–7.87], respectively). BEFORE OR AFTER VACCINATION. Every single person in that study was vaccinated, some of them caught covid (either before or after being vaccinated), some people did not catch covid at all. The people that were vaccinated and contracted covid fared the worst. There is no un-vaccinated group that caught covid and never took the vaccine at all in this study.
- blitz_skull 4y ago
  I had COVID twice, never got the vaccine (still haven't), and I was diagnosed with Myocarditis. I personally know 2 other young (< 30) males that have as well. Not "my buddy's friend" but first-circle of separation friends. All 3 of us got diagnosed with it. No other heart-related issues. I might say there's a "statistically insignificant increase", but to say there's no increase is just factually wrong. (And statistically wrong too).
  - nonethewiser 4y ago
    Myocarditis existed long before covid. You can get it without covid nor the vaccine. Your anecdote is as informative as my friend who got it several years before Covid.
- russdill 4y ago
  You're comparing a study with 200,000 people with a study with 43,000,000 people.
  - nonethewiser 4y ago
    And you're comparing a study that monitored for less than a month to one that monitored for 4 months.
    - russdill 4y ago
      Can you point me to that? The abstract isn't calling that out very clearly to me. "Inpatient myocarditis and pericarditis diagnoses were retrieved from day 10 after positive PCR. Follow-up was censored on 28 February 2021, with minimum observation of 18 days."
sfusato 4y ago
"Retrospective cohort study of 196,992 adults after COVID-19 infection in Clalit Health Services members in Israel between March 2020 and January 2021. [...] We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection." Study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/
kyleyeats 4y ago
[flagged]
- bluGill 4y ago
  > The vaccine doesn't stop transmission That is utterly false! If you don't get COVID because of the vaccine, then the vaccine stopped the transmission. Even if you get COVID, the chance you transmit COVID is reduced becuase the body spreads less. If you do get it, but your body will also clear it faster which is less time to transmit. Sure the above is 100% stop all transmission, but it still stops the majority.
  - kyleyeats 4y ago
  - spfzero 4y ago
    It cannot stop transmission, clearly. The country is mostly vaccinated and cases continue, no herd immunity ever showed up. The vaccines do reduce transmission in the minority of cases where full-blown symptoms last long enough that the reduction in infection length conferred by the vaccine is significant. But for most cases, they never progress to the point that the antibody response would become a factor, so most vaccinated people spread it just as much as if they were never vaccinated, in the early portion of their infection at minimum. So even if everyone got their booster today at the same instant, and every 6 months repeated that, it would still not stop the free movement of the virus among the population. The only way to stop the spread is to do what China is doing, but with air-tight effectiveness, which is impossible. That said, there's a big reason to get vaccinated and boosted anyway if you are in a risk group, since it is somewhat effective in protecting against serious and deadly outcomes.
    - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
      > It cannot stop transmission, clearly. The country is mostly vaccinated and cases continue, no herd immunity ever showed up. This is a miststament.
abeppu 4y ago
Also, myocarditis can be more or less severe, IIUC. The article links to this CDC presentation, and on slide 5 they characterize myocarditis associated with mRNA vaccination vs myocarditis associated with viral illness. The proportion that recover cardiac function, and the time to recover cardiac function are better in the mRNA case. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2022-06-22-23/03-covid-shimabukuro-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...
- adamsb6 4y ago
  Like just about everything, I would expect myocarditis to have some distribution such that there's a group of people who feel bad, but not bad enough to see a doctor. For the vaccines I would expect that people would be less likely to see a doctor because the vaccine side effects were so widely talked about, and going to the doctor carried a risk of COVID exposure. The second does of vaccine knocked my wife and I on our asses for three days. I broke a sweat unloading the dishwasher and then had to go take a nap to recover. I figured we were just unlucky enough to have an especially strong reaction and didn't bother a doctor about it. Was that mild myocarditis? I'll probably never know.
fhrow4484 4y ago
> Cool, now what's the incidence of Myocarditis and similar after COVID-19 infection? Which mechanism would cause myocarditis when you get COVID 19? The 2nd link in nradov's comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33599243 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33599243) states: > These findings indicate that introducing the mRNA vaccine into the circulatory system can lead to acute cardiac inflammation. The mechanism behind this requires further elucidation. However, it is speculated that this may be due to the pro-inflammatory properties of lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) used as carriers for mRNA. The actual COVID-19 infection doesn't have any lipid nanoparticles, does it? Agree with overall sentiment of your comment though: the overall real-bad symptoms caused by an infection when fully unvaccinated are probably not worth skipping vaccine. The clinical trials in op's article as well as nradov's comment on "aspiration" to reduce myocarditis risk during vaccination are both important topics to explore.
- enragedcacti 4y ago
  I'm not sure how it causes it but it seems that it does: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm > During March 2020–January 2021, patients with COVID-19 had nearly 16 times the risk for myocarditis compared with patients who did not have COVID-19, and risk varied by sex and age. > To minimize potential bias from vaccine-associated myocarditis (6), 277,892 patients with a COVID-19 vaccination record in PHD-SR during December 2020–February 2021 were excluded.
plgonzalezrx8 4y ago
The data is very unclear on this. Sure you found sources that back your claim, but plenty of replies with sources that say the contrary (From reputable sources). So in the meantime, given the conflicting nature of all the reports, mandating vaccines should NOT be a thing.

hitpointdrew 4y ago

According to this study https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ there is no increase in Myocarditis cases among unvaccinated people who have contracted Covid-19. This study tracked 196,992 people which is a huge number, so the data here is quite good and clear. Contracting Covid-19 does not put you at increased risk for Myocarditis, the same cannot be said when evaluating a population that simply received the vaccination.

AnimalMuppet 4y ago
Now, to balance between you and the OP: Great, Covid looks like it won't give me myocarditis. It can still kill me, though. So now we have to balance a "may give me myocarditis" vaccine against a "may kill me, but won't give me myocarditis" virus. You can't make the trade-off solely on myocarditis.
- sfusato 4y ago
  You forgot the "may give me myocarditis (and covid might still kill me)" on one end of the balance though.
  - bluGill 4y ago
    Then we have to account for the much reduced risk of that though. sure it can, but relative risk is important. Covid when vaccinated is far more likely to kill you than all possible combinations of the vaccine and whatever else.
    - hitpointdrew 4y ago
      > Then we have to account for the much reduced risk of that though I fail to see any evidence of "much reduced risk". We know before vaccinations existed some people died, some people were a-symptomatic. After mass vaccination campaigns, same results. Have the deaths gone down? Sure, but there are obvious factors, outside of vaccination, that are certainly contributing to that, if not wholly responsible for it. We know the virus has been getting less deadly with each new strain, we know that putting people on ventilators and cranking them up was 100% the wrong treatment. The media has largely stopped beating the fear drum, there are no more death counters up on the news stations 24/7 so people aren't freaking-the-fuck-out. I highly suspect you could have given out placebos instead and would have seen the same results.
      - enragedcacti 4y ago
        > I fail to see any evidence of "much reduced risk". If you just do a basic per-capita analysis the reduced risk of death is in the range of 5-16x depending on age group and vaccinated or vaccinated+boosted. There are obviously confounding variables (do vaccinated people behave differently? are healthier people the ones getting the vaccines?) but I would argue that those numbers are a pretty big W for vaccines as far as risk reduction goes. And of course that is just deaths. You could certainly look at numbers for severity of infection or long-covid outcomes to further measure the efficacy of the vaccines. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-covid-deaths-for-vaccinated-and-unvaccinated-people/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-compare-co...
        hitpointdrew 4y ago
        >If you just do a basic per-capita analysis the reduced risk of death is in the range 5-16x I am not questioning that, but couldn't that 5-16x be contributed to the latest strains being far less deadly that the first few strains, much better and accessible treatments (monoclonal antibodies), safer hospital practices (not putting people on ventilators so quickly/easily), etc.? How can we be so sure that the majority of that 5-16x was from vaccination?
- SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
  > Great, Covid looks like it won't give me myocarditis. It can still kill me, ... COVID can still kill me, or give me one of a number of other long-term health issues. If myocarditis isn't one of them, it doesn't really change the risk ratio.
  - sfusato 4y ago
    Doesn't that still apply to someone vaccinated though? "... COVID can still kill me, or give me one of a number of other long-term health issues"
    - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
      > Doesn't that still apply to someone vaccinated though? Not at close to the same rate, no. "can" would be a technically true but entirely misleading word there, as the topic of conversation is the risk ratio. "1 in 10 chance" things can happen. "1 in a million chance" things can happen, also. But these two "can" usages are not the same. You should know this. You should not be playing word games. Do you think, falsely, that COVID vaccination it totally useless? If not, why imply it?
      - sfusato 4y ago
        So, what's the risk ratio? I haven't said that it's totally useless, you simply excluded that possibility as a given. Most countries around the world have stopped recommending any further boosters to those under 50/65 years of age.
        SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
        > Most countries around that world have stopped recommending any further boosters. What makes you say that? It doesn't sound accurate at all, given that Autumn booster programs are underway in USA, UK, EU - and those are the only ones that I have checked. And what are you attempting to imply?
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  > Now, to balance between you and the OP Well, no. That's moving the goalpost. The question was if COVID was more likely to result in myocarditis than vaccines. "Yes, but" still grants "yes."
selectodude 4y ago
A more recent one disagrees. https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.059970 https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/full/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA....
- anon291 4y ago
  When data disagree, then you need better studies. Certainly not blanket recommendations and requirements including firing people who refuse to comply and making it impossible to feed their families.
- hitpointdrew 4y ago
  From your study: >In 42 842 345 people receiving at least 1 dose of vaccine, 21 242 629 received 3 doses, and 5 934 153 had SARS-CoV-2 infection before or after vaccination. Myocarditis occurred in 2861 (0.007%) people, with 617 events 1 to 28 days after vaccination. Risk of myocarditis was increased in the 1 to 28 days after a first dose of ChAdOx1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09–1.62]) and a first, second, and booster dose of BNT162b2 (1.52 [95% CI, 1.24–1.85]; 1.57 [95% CI, 1.28–1.92], and 1.72 [95% CI, 1.33–2.22], respectively) but was lower than the risks after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test before or after vaccination (11.14 [95% CI, 8.64–14.36] and 5.97 [95% CI, 4.54–7.87], respectively). BEFORE OR AFTER VACCINATION. Every single person in that study was vaccinated, some of them caught covid (either before or after being vaccinated), some people did not catch covid at all. The people that were vaccinated and contracted covid fared the worst. There is no un-vaccinated group that caught covid and never took the vaccine at all in this study.
blitz_skull 4y ago
I had COVID twice, never got the vaccine (still haven't), and I was diagnosed with Myocarditis. I personally know 2 other young (< 30) males that have as well. Not "my buddy's friend" but first-circle of separation friends. All 3 of us got diagnosed with it. No other heart-related issues. I might say there's a "statistically insignificant increase", but to say there's no increase is just factually wrong. (And statistically wrong too).
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  Myocarditis existed long before covid. You can get it without covid nor the vaccine. Your anecdote is as informative as my friend who got it several years before Covid.
russdill 4y ago
You're comparing a study with 200,000 people with a study with 43,000,000 people.
- nonethewiser 4y ago
  And you're comparing a study that monitored for less than a month to one that monitored for 4 months.
  - russdill 4y ago
    Can you point me to that? The abstract isn't calling that out very clearly to me. "Inpatient myocarditis and pericarditis diagnoses were retrieved from day 10 after positive PCR. Follow-up was censored on 28 February 2021, with minimum observation of 18 days."

sfusato 4y ago

"Retrospective cohort study of 196,992 adults after COVID-19 infection in Clalit Health Services members in Israel between March 2020 and January 2021. [...] We did not observe an increased incidence of neither pericarditis nor myocarditis in adult patients recovering from COVID-19 infection." Study: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35456309/

kyleyeats 4y ago

[flagged]

bluGill 4y ago
> The vaccine doesn't stop transmission That is utterly false! If you don't get COVID because of the vaccine, then the vaccine stopped the transmission. Even if you get COVID, the chance you transmit COVID is reduced becuase the body spreads less. If you do get it, but your body will also clear it faster which is less time to transmit. Sure the above is 100% stop all transmission, but it still stops the majority.
- kyleyeats 4y ago
- spfzero 4y ago
  It cannot stop transmission, clearly. The country is mostly vaccinated and cases continue, no herd immunity ever showed up. The vaccines do reduce transmission in the minority of cases where full-blown symptoms last long enough that the reduction in infection length conferred by the vaccine is significant. But for most cases, they never progress to the point that the antibody response would become a factor, so most vaccinated people spread it just as much as if they were never vaccinated, in the early portion of their infection at minimum. So even if everyone got their booster today at the same instant, and every 6 months repeated that, it would still not stop the free movement of the virus among the population. The only way to stop the spread is to do what China is doing, but with air-tight effectiveness, which is impossible. That said, there's a big reason to get vaccinated and boosted anyway if you are in a risk group, since it is somewhat effective in protecting against serious and deadly outcomes.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago
    > It cannot stop transmission, clearly. The country is mostly vaccinated and cases continue, no herd immunity ever showed up. This is a miststament.

abeppu 4y ago

Also, myocarditis can be more or less severe, IIUC. The article links to this CDC presentation, and on slide 5 they characterize myocarditis associated with mRNA vaccination vs myocarditis associated with viral illness. The proportion that recover cardiac function, and the time to recover cardiac function are better in the mRNA case. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2022-06-22-23/03-covid-shimabukuro-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

adamsb6 4y ago
Like just about everything, I would expect myocarditis to have some distribution such that there's a group of people who feel bad, but not bad enough to see a doctor. For the vaccines I would expect that people would be less likely to see a doctor because the vaccine side effects were so widely talked about, and going to the doctor carried a risk of COVID exposure. The second does of vaccine knocked my wife and I on our asses for three days. I broke a sweat unloading the dishwasher and then had to go take a nap to recover. I figured we were just unlucky enough to have an especially strong reaction and didn't bother a doctor about it. Was that mild myocarditis? I'll probably never know.

fhrow4484 4y ago

> Cool, now what's the incidence of Myocarditis and similar after COVID-19 infection? Which mechanism would cause myocarditis when you get COVID 19? The 2nd link in nradov's comment (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33599243 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33599243) states: > These findings indicate that introducing the mRNA vaccine into the circulatory system can lead to acute cardiac inflammation. The mechanism behind this requires further elucidation. However, it is speculated that this may be due to the pro-inflammatory properties of lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) used as carriers for mRNA. The actual COVID-19 infection doesn't have any lipid nanoparticles, does it? Agree with overall sentiment of your comment though: the overall real-bad symptoms caused by an infection when fully unvaccinated are probably not worth skipping vaccine. The clinical trials in op's article as well as nradov's comment on "aspiration" to reduce myocarditis risk during vaccination are both important topics to explore.

enragedcacti 4y ago
I'm not sure how it causes it but it seems that it does: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7035e5.htm > During March 2020–January 2021, patients with COVID-19 had nearly 16 times the risk for myocarditis compared with patients who did not have COVID-19, and risk varied by sex and age. > To minimize potential bias from vaccine-associated myocarditis (6), 277,892 patients with a COVID-19 vaccination record in PHD-SR during December 2020–February 2021 were excluded.

plgonzalezrx8 4y ago

The data is very unclear on this. Sure you found sources that back your claim, but plenty of replies with sources that say the contrary (From reputable sources). So in the meantime, given the conflicting nature of all the reports, mandating vaccines should NOT be a thing.