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This is kind of a nasty article that just totally ignores the economics of scaling a complex manufacturing company. The same quarter last year Rivian earned a

by zaroth 4y ago

This is kind of a nasty article that just totally ignores the economics of scaling a complex manufacturing company. The same quarter last year Rivian earned a nominal $1mm. This quarter they produced actual product they sold for $536 million. I don’t know much about Rivian’s product, but I know people called Tesla “structurally unprofitable” for years. They were totally bankrupt, a fraud, etc… Fact is that it costs a tremendous amount of money to scale up a car company to the point where volume and margins will lead to profitability and positive free cash flow. What matters is that they are shipping real cars, and that people who own their cars are nearly fanatical in their love and support for them. If that is true, which I don’t know if it is, then burning money to scale up is the right move.

api 4y ago
The oil and conventional ICE industries are still desperately hoping that EVs will fail and I'm sure they are sponsoring incredible amounts of astroturf to that effect. I got an EV a while back. It's a Nissan Leaf, not the "sexiest" EV by any stretch, but other than recharge time it outperforms a similar class gas car on every single metric: fuel cost, driving experience, acceleration, overall performance, TCO, reliability, and so on. Gas cars are inferior in every single way except recharge time and (depending on model) range and the gap is closing rapidly in those areas.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  If BEVs won't go down with those prices, you can be sure they will fail in same way as biofuels did in EU - slowly forgotten.
  - zaroth 4y ago
    I think this is just head in the sand thinking. BEVs are here to stay and are indisputably the future. EVs are already cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles in terms of TCO, and they can be made cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles even up-front. But more importantly, gasoline will only ever get more expensive. The expertise to maintain extremely complex and efficient gasoline engines will only get more expensive. The taxes on burning gasoline will only get more expensive. And as volume falls, gas stations have to spread their overhead across fewer gallons sold, only exacerbating the price increase at the pump. All the while electricity will only get less expensive. Many homeowners will choose to make a small upfront investment in panels and produce more energy onsite than they will ever consume, making their EVs even less expensive per mile. Real-world advances in battery tech and smart grid infrastructure will allow the car to play double-duty as a backup power source for the home, and even triple duty a profit-generating part of the electrical grid. The only limiting factor for BEVs is charging infrastructure. If you have a home you can charge at, and particularly if you have a roof you can put solar panels on, then your next car, or the car after that, will absolutely be an BEV. For those without home charging, we will either need incredible public charging infrastructure, or perhaps the ability for the car to go get itself a charge on its own in the middle of the day/night.
    - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
      Well Energiewende is making energy more expensive despite the promises about cheap energy. Renewables thanks to the fact that you need to keep baseline via fossil plant (gas or coal), is making electric energy more expensive. The fact that you are creating more demand for electric energy through mandated BEVs is making electric energy more expensive and BEVs unappealing. There is no reason for electric energy to be cheaper, it will be only more expensive. Point and case: It is already more expensive to charge on Fast DC chargers than take gas for ICE.
  - api 4y ago
    BEVs and biofuels are not even comparable at all. For starters, biofuel is always at least as expensive as oil-based fuel if not more. Electricity is almost always dramatically cheaper except for maybe those few areas that get electricity from oil.
- olyjohn 4y ago
  What are you basing these claims on? What ICE cars is the Leaf outperforming? Nobody considers an 8 second 0-60 time to be fast. The MSRP on the Leaf starts at $28,000. And for that price, you can get a base model Accord that is 2 seconds faster 0-60. What other ICE cars did you drive to compare the driving experience? (I bet you didn't even drive any.) Please tell me how you came to the conclusion that your Leaf is more reliable than an Accord. I don't want to hear how there are less moving parts. Stats on your reliability claim. What the hell is "overall performance"? The Leaf outperforms ICE cars on "overall performance?" What does that mean?
  - api 4y ago
    Overall performance means all things considered: cost, cost of fuel, acceleration, driving experience, maintenance cost, etc. Think of it like a weighted average. I’ve driven tons of ICE cars. It’s not a sports car and I’m sure many will beat it to 60. It does however seem to beat most ICE cars at accelerating from full stop and maneuvering to merge. This is because electric motors give you full torque instantly. There is zero noticeable latency between pedal and motion and you really get used to that. The only ICE cars that don’t feel mushy now are muscular sportscars that are more expensive than the Leaf. But there are more costly EVs that will beat virtually any ICE car to 60 and beyond. The technology is just superior at everything but range and recharge time, and as I said those gaps are closing. Prices are also slowly coming down, especially if you factor in fuel and maintenance cost. ICE engines have maybe a decade left at most in the regular car market. They will persist longer for long haul vehicles due to recharge time and range. It will be a while before electric works for long haul trucking unless we spend a lot on charge infrastructure.

by zaroth 4y ago

api 4y ago

The oil and conventional ICE industries are still desperately hoping that EVs will fail and I'm sure they are sponsoring incredible amounts of astroturf to that effect. I got an EV a while back. It's a Nissan Leaf, not the "sexiest" EV by any stretch, but other than recharge time it outperforms a similar class gas car on every single metric: fuel cost, driving experience, acceleration, overall performance, TCO, reliability, and so on. Gas cars are inferior in every single way except recharge time and (depending on model) range and the gap is closing rapidly in those areas.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
If BEVs won't go down with those prices, you can be sure they will fail in same way as biofuels did in EU - slowly forgotten.
- zaroth 4y ago
  I think this is just head in the sand thinking. BEVs are here to stay and are indisputably the future. EVs are already cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles in terms of TCO, and they can be made cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles even up-front. But more importantly, gasoline will only ever get more expensive. The expertise to maintain extremely complex and efficient gasoline engines will only get more expensive. The taxes on burning gasoline will only get more expensive. And as volume falls, gas stations have to spread their overhead across fewer gallons sold, only exacerbating the price increase at the pump. All the while electricity will only get less expensive. Many homeowners will choose to make a small upfront investment in panels and produce more energy onsite than they will ever consume, making their EVs even less expensive per mile. Real-world advances in battery tech and smart grid infrastructure will allow the car to play double-duty as a backup power source for the home, and even triple duty a profit-generating part of the electrical grid. The only limiting factor for BEVs is charging infrastructure. If you have a home you can charge at, and particularly if you have a roof you can put solar panels on, then your next car, or the car after that, will absolutely be an BEV. For those without home charging, we will either need incredible public charging infrastructure, or perhaps the ability for the car to go get itself a charge on its own in the middle of the day/night.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    Well Energiewende is making energy more expensive despite the promises about cheap energy. Renewables thanks to the fact that you need to keep baseline via fossil plant (gas or coal), is making electric energy more expensive. The fact that you are creating more demand for electric energy through mandated BEVs is making electric energy more expensive and BEVs unappealing. There is no reason for electric energy to be cheaper, it will be only more expensive. Point and case: It is already more expensive to charge on Fast DC chargers than take gas for ICE.
- api 4y ago
  BEVs and biofuels are not even comparable at all. For starters, biofuel is always at least as expensive as oil-based fuel if not more. Electricity is almost always dramatically cheaper except for maybe those few areas that get electricity from oil.
olyjohn 4y ago
What are you basing these claims on? What ICE cars is the Leaf outperforming? Nobody considers an 8 second 0-60 time to be fast. The MSRP on the Leaf starts at $28,000. And for that price, you can get a base model Accord that is 2 seconds faster 0-60. What other ICE cars did you drive to compare the driving experience? (I bet you didn't even drive any.) Please tell me how you came to the conclusion that your Leaf is more reliable than an Accord. I don't want to hear how there are less moving parts. Stats on your reliability claim. What the hell is "overall performance"? The Leaf outperforms ICE cars on "overall performance?" What does that mean?
- api 4y ago
  Overall performance means all things considered: cost, cost of fuel, acceleration, driving experience, maintenance cost, etc. Think of it like a weighted average. I’ve driven tons of ICE cars. It’s not a sports car and I’m sure many will beat it to 60. It does however seem to beat most ICE cars at accelerating from full stop and maneuvering to merge. This is because electric motors give you full torque instantly. There is zero noticeable latency between pedal and motion and you really get used to that. The only ICE cars that don’t feel mushy now are muscular sportscars that are more expensive than the Leaf. But there are more costly EVs that will beat virtually any ICE car to 60 and beyond. The technology is just superior at everything but range and recharge time, and as I said those gaps are closing. Prices are also slowly coming down, especially if you factor in fuel and maintenance cost. ICE engines have maybe a decade left at most in the regular car market. They will persist longer for long haul vehicles due to recharge time and range. It will be a while before electric works for long haul trucking unless we spend a lot on charge infrastructure.