4 ms·

And they say we are not in a recession.

rvz 4y ago
Exactly. Also many said 'engineers are not affected!'. I'm sorry to say they are. The delusion and denial about how this is not a tech crash in 2022 is really quite hilarious and I do not believe that it is over just yet.
wittycardio 4y ago
We're in a downtown for the tech industry most other industries are fine
- boomer918 4y ago
  Tech eats the world. When tech goes down, its competitors go bankrupt.
- 0xbadcafebee 4y ago
  Aren't all the big index funds tied to a couple tech giants and a smattering of other companies?
mc32 4y ago
It's now safe to admit we have been in one and don't have to play the strict interpretation and can carry on with the colloquial interpretation which had been good enough since ever.
rob74 4y ago
Sometimes a recession is also a self-fulfilling prophecy...
AtlasBarfed 4y ago
I get we've been cooking the books and printing money during COVID, but shouldn't there be a raw productivity explosion in the US economy with COVID restrictions lifting? Suppressed consumption, increased output, etc? This does seem like some weird massive manipulation of the economy by the elites to grab more wealth and control. Or it's just some collective revenge against the various antiwork / worker empowerment / etc that came out of COVID to put the proles back in their place. Or maybe its just that a lot of investment dollars are drying up from overseas with inflation.
- SkipperCat 4y ago
  Total consumption did not change with Covid, it just went from one part of the economy to another. Kind of like squeezing a balloon - same amount of air, just in a different part of the vessel. As for the massive amount of manipulation, that was done in plain sight. The fed had injected $$$ and low interest rates into the economy since 2009 and finally the spigot stopped.
- Macha 4y ago
  Did COVID suppress consumption or just redirect it? Less restaurant meals and more PS5s, and now the pendulum swings the other way as people socialize in person again.
  - mrtranscendence 4y ago
    Good question, I suppose. I work in the grocery industry and COVID was absolutely incredible for business -- my yearly bonus doubled. Wouldn't have wanted to own a bowling alley or a movie theatre, though. That said, we never corrected to the degree the tech industry seems to be now. I'm glad I never followed through with those Facebook recruiters ...
- mensetmanusman 4y ago
  There is no conspiracy, just muddling along as humans do.
bergenty 4y ago
It’s a 0.7% layoff. Not even a whole percentage point.
- revlolz 4y ago
  A useless sentiment when you are 1 of the 10,000+ about to lose their job before the holidays in a recession.
laweijfmvo 4y ago
Probably we are in for a prolonged stagnation, but even after 11,000 layoffs last week, Meta’s employment level is on par with early 2022, hardly a massive reduction historically.
- swamp40 4y ago
  What do they do with 70,000 employees? It's hard to envision.
- symlinkk 4y ago
  This sounds like the realtors that say “interest rates are still historically low”
  - compiler-guy 4y ago
    They are. What that means is open to debate, and how you should act based on the current interest rates depends a lot. But simply as a historical matter, current interest rates are lower than the majority of history. https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c...
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BeefWellington 4y ago
I think these moves are possible if we're not in a recession. If Amazon underperformed over the year, and its earnings are lower than estimated, they could be simply cutting costs in Q4 to offset the lowered earnings. The cause of that underperformance is really what would tell you if we're headed for a recession and Amazon has their fingers in so many pies it'd be hard to attribute laying off 1/150th of their workforce to the overall economy I think. That this is happening at a number of big tech companies isn't a surprise I don't think. The biggest layoffs this year so far have been at companies that made large scale changes (Meta, Twitter) or over-hired over the course of the pandemic when that level of business turned out not to be permanent (Stripe, Shopify). It's possible that this is industry-specific. Tech companies exploded during the pandemic if they had anything to do with stuff you do indoors, and this is the real "post-pandemic" year (talking economically). Other industries which took it on the chin during the pandemic are recovering well this year, notably anything travel-related seems to be doing incredibly well and some companies are on track for banner years. That said, I suspect we're going to see a few quarters of stagnant growth (0% to 0.3%) or mild contraction (0% to -0.3%), maybe not enough in a row to declare recession.
- ralph84 4y ago
  Travel is going to crash hard again once the pent-up demand for post-pandemic vacations is fulfilled. Lots of Fortune 500 companies, many of them quite profitable, have implemented travel restrictions within the last quarter for budget reasons.
erehweb 4y ago
US GDP was up 2.6% annualized in 2022Q3 (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and unemployment was 3.7% in Oct2022.
- sokoloff 4y ago
  Worth making two observations on that GDP figure: More importantly: that's a real (inflation backed out) not nominal (inflation ignored) figure Less importantly: that's an advance estimate, not a final figure.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
bryanlarsen 4y ago
3.5% unemployment is not a recession. A couple of industries like tech are having some bubbles popped, and some places like the UK are having a recession, but the US is not in a recession. You all are just too used to 15 years of tech boom so anything different looks like a recession.

rvz 4y ago

Exactly. Also many said 'engineers are not affected!'. I'm sorry to say they are. The delusion and denial about how this is not a tech crash in 2022 is really quite hilarious and I do not believe that it is over just yet.

wittycardio 4y ago

We're in a downtown for the tech industry most other industries are fine

boomer918 4y ago
Tech eats the world. When tech goes down, its competitors go bankrupt.
0xbadcafebee 4y ago
Aren't all the big index funds tied to a couple tech giants and a smattering of other companies?

mc32 4y ago

It's now safe to admit we have been in one and don't have to play the strict interpretation and can carry on with the colloquial interpretation which had been good enough since ever.

rob74 4y ago

Sometimes a recession is also a self-fulfilling prophecy...

AtlasBarfed 4y ago

I get we've been cooking the books and printing money during COVID, but shouldn't there be a raw productivity explosion in the US economy with COVID restrictions lifting? Suppressed consumption, increased output, etc? This does seem like some weird massive manipulation of the economy by the elites to grab more wealth and control. Or it's just some collective revenge against the various antiwork / worker empowerment / etc that came out of COVID to put the proles back in their place. Or maybe its just that a lot of investment dollars are drying up from overseas with inflation.

SkipperCat 4y ago
Total consumption did not change with Covid, it just went from one part of the economy to another. Kind of like squeezing a balloon - same amount of air, just in a different part of the vessel. As for the massive amount of manipulation, that was done in plain sight. The fed had injected $$$ and low interest rates into the economy since 2009 and finally the spigot stopped.
Macha 4y ago
Did COVID suppress consumption or just redirect it? Less restaurant meals and more PS5s, and now the pendulum swings the other way as people socialize in person again.
- mrtranscendence 4y ago
  Good question, I suppose. I work in the grocery industry and COVID was absolutely incredible for business -- my yearly bonus doubled. Wouldn't have wanted to own a bowling alley or a movie theatre, though. That said, we never corrected to the degree the tech industry seems to be now. I'm glad I never followed through with those Facebook recruiters ...
mensetmanusman 4y ago
There is no conspiracy, just muddling along as humans do.

bergenty 4y ago

It’s a 0.7% layoff. Not even a whole percentage point.

revlolz 4y ago
A useless sentiment when you are 1 of the 10,000+ about to lose their job before the holidays in a recession.

laweijfmvo 4y ago

Probably we are in for a prolonged stagnation, but even after 11,000 layoffs last week, Meta’s employment level is on par with early 2022, hardly a massive reduction historically.

swamp40 4y ago
What do they do with 70,000 employees? It's hard to envision.
symlinkk 4y ago
This sounds like the realtors that say “interest rates are still historically low”
- compiler-guy 4y ago
  They are. What that means is open to debate, and how you should act based on the current interest rates depends a lot. But simply as a historical matter, current interest rates are lower than the majority of history. https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c...

deleted 4y ago

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deleted 4y ago

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BeefWellington 4y ago

I think these moves are possible if we're not in a recession. If Amazon underperformed over the year, and its earnings are lower than estimated, they could be simply cutting costs in Q4 to offset the lowered earnings. The cause of that underperformance is really what would tell you if we're headed for a recession and Amazon has their fingers in so many pies it'd be hard to attribute laying off 1/150th of their workforce to the overall economy I think. That this is happening at a number of big tech companies isn't a surprise I don't think. The biggest layoffs this year so far have been at companies that made large scale changes (Meta, Twitter) or over-hired over the course of the pandemic when that level of business turned out not to be permanent (Stripe, Shopify). It's possible that this is industry-specific. Tech companies exploded during the pandemic if they had anything to do with stuff you do indoors, and this is the real "post-pandemic" year (talking economically). Other industries which took it on the chin during the pandemic are recovering well this year, notably anything travel-related seems to be doing incredibly well and some companies are on track for banner years. That said, I suspect we're going to see a few quarters of stagnant growth (0% to 0.3%) or mild contraction (0% to -0.3%), maybe not enough in a row to declare recession.

ralph84 4y ago
Travel is going to crash hard again once the pent-up demand for post-pandemic vacations is fulfilled. Lots of Fortune 500 companies, many of them quite profitable, have implemented travel restrictions within the last quarter for budget reasons.

erehweb 4y ago

US GDP was up 2.6% annualized in 2022Q3 (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and unemployment was 3.7% in Oct2022.

sokoloff 4y ago
Worth making two observations on that GDP figure: More importantly: that's a real (inflation backed out) not nominal (inflation ignored) figure Less importantly: that's an advance estimate, not a final figure.
deleted 4y ago
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bryanlarsen 4y ago

3.5% unemployment is not a recession. A couple of industries like tech are having some bubbles popped, and some places like the UK are having a recession, but the US is not in a recession. You all are just too used to 15 years of tech boom so anything different looks like a recession.