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>New homes in Washington State are going to save money up front due to rebates and tax credits and they will also save money in the long run, as heat pumps redu

>New homes in Washington State are going to save money up front due to rebates and tax credits and they will also save money in the long run, as heat pumps reduce electricity consumption by up to 50%. Emissions will be cut as well. This is from the article and it's a little disingenuous. Yes, heat pumps reduce electricity consumption compared to resistive heating which almost nobody in my corner of washington is using. People here use natural gas which is historically pretty cheap even compared to relatively cheap electric rates for heating purposes. If your goal is to reduce emissions, great. But eventually these tax credits will expire and this will directly translate into people paying more for heating. In the part of the state that influences elections and policy that's not a big deal, but the eastern and central parts of the state get awfully cold from time to time comparatively. Let's not rush to pat ourselves on the back just yet and let's not pretend this policy doesn't have a real human cost.

alephxyz 4y ago
The article does mention that 56% of Washington residents use electric heading
- rahimnathwani 4y ago
  The data source is based on occupied housing units, not residents: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?t=Heating%20and%20Air%20Conditioning%20%28HVAC%29&g=0100000US%240400000&y=2020&tid=ACSDT5Y2020.B25040&tp=true https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?t=Heating%20and%20Air%2... This may skew the stats if units without gas tend to be smaller (and need less heating), e.g. if it's predominantly condos that lack gas heating. According to that same data source 27% of California's occupied housing units are heated with electricity. That is much higher than I would have expected.
mech765 4y ago
How much do y'all pay per kilowatt hour for electricity? IIRC you guys have lots of cheap hydro power.
- rdtwo 4y ago
  10c
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    And heating with a natural gas furnace is still far cheaper. Obviously excluding costs of externalities not included in price of natural gas, but they are also not included in the electricity prices. Not that they are easily knowable in the first place.
    - matthewdgreen 4y ago
      I used this calculator [1] to compare based on the current price of utility natural gas and an 11 cent/kWh electric cost. The electric heat pump was significantly cheaper, to the tune of hundreds of dollars per year. [1] https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/ https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/
      - lotsofpulp 4y ago
        It has been a few years since I did the calculations for my place, but if I put in my natural gas price ($1.05/therm), it is coming out near even. At which point, the initial costs and maintenance costs would be a factor, and back then, a heat pump with a capacity comparable to a gas furnace was much more expensive. So maybe the parameters have changed, but I also like that my gas furnace can be counted on at any temperature, plus it is not subject to electricity outages. Perhaps I would do both heat pump and gas furnace going toward, the furnace as backup for the heat pump and get the best of both worlds.
        LarsAlereon 4y ago
        Another way of looking at that up-front cost is that it's basically an extra $100 when you install an air conditioning system, or that you get an air conditioning system for free along with your heating system. This is very relevant in Washington where we historically didn't need AC but with hotter summers it's starting to become a requirement for comfort. So there are lots of houses that have never had AC that need a system installed.
LarsAlereon 4y ago
The electricity to run a heat pump that moves heat where you want it is cheaper than the gas you need to burn to make an equivalent amount of heat. On the very coldest days the efficiency of a heat pump can drop enough for this not to be the case, but over the course of the year an electric heat pump will save you money over burning gas. There are pretty significant environmental costs to burning gas in our homes, less about the combustion exhaust than the total amount of leaks within the distribution system that allow unburned methane to escape to the atmosphere. There's also growing awareness that many classes of gas appliance produce a lot more indoor air pollution that causes lung disease (especially in children) than was previously expected.
- rahimnathwani 4y ago
  "The electricity to run a heat pump that moves heat where you want it is cheaper than the gas you need to burn to make an equivalent amount of heat." This must depend on the relative prices of gas and electricity. What's the threshold ratio beyond which gas is cheaper than a heat pump?
  - hedora 4y ago
    It generally takes less gas to generate electricity, ship it, and run the heatpump than to directly heat the house with gas.
    - rahimnathwani 4y ago
      But I don't generate or ship electricity. I buy both my electricity and my gas from PG&E, and pay whatever price they charge for each. So the question of which is cheaper depends not on the fundamentals of physics of it, but on the relative prices PG&E charges for each.
      - hedora 4y ago
        In California, the heat pump will win, partially due to the mild climate, and partially due to natural gas somehow being even more overpriced than electricity.
scottlawson 4y ago
> As of 2020, 56% of Washington residents used electricity for heating, and 37% of residents used natural gas or bottled, tank, or LP gas. the majority of Washington residents using electric heating is a far cry from "resistive heating which almost nobody in my corner of washington is using."
- legitster 4y ago
  The majority of Washington residents live on the Western side of the state - much more mild weather. But out in the Spokane area, winters are much harsher.
- rahimnathwani 4y ago
  "56% of Washington residents" The source data's unit of measure is 'occupied housing units', so this claim by the article is unsupported.
- idiotsecant 4y ago
  Any statement that discusses the 'majority of washington residents' almost always could just be shortened to the 'the Seattle metro area' because that's where most people in Washington live. It just to happens that the eastern part of the state also has quite a few people, though, and it's more like Idaho climate than it is Seattle climate.
legitster 4y ago
I think people are unaware how heat pumps get preposterously less efficient the colder it gets. Once the unit ices over, it's not much better than a resistance heater.
- LarsAlereon 4y ago
  Modern heat pumps have minimum operating temperatures below 0F so they're still going to be providing efficient heat during winter conditions nearly anywhere in the world. Whenever excess frost builds up they run backwards for a few minutes to clean the coils off. This is a far cry from the old days of units that didn't operate well below freezing and ran a defrost operation on a simple timer.
  - legitster 4y ago
    > Whenever excess frost builds up they run backwards for a few minutes to clean the coils off Yes, and in cold enough weather they can cycle that way all day. They function, but it's not terribly efficient.
    - LarsAlereon 4y ago
      The colder the weather the less humidity the air can old, so it's not really that much of an issue. Heat pumps definitely do lose efficiency as the air temp drops, which is why it's important to get one that has a size and minimum operating temperature that's appropriate for your use. Washington actually has an energy code that requires heat pumps be properly sized to heat the house without needing to fall back to resistance heat.
      - legitster 4y ago
        I live in Washington and am very familiar with heat pumps. I am sharing person experience - on cold days you will get much lower than the rated efficiency. In Eastern Washington, it's arguable that it would save you much energy over a resistive heater.
ispo 4y ago
A real human cost? This is an exaggeration. Also, are those suffering climate impacts counting in your equations??
seanmcdirmid 4y ago
> Yes, heat pumps reduce electricity consumption compared to resistive heating which almost nobody in my corner of washington is using. People here use natural gas which is historically pretty cheap even compared to relatively cheap electric rates for heating purposes. Ya, this made me wonder. I get Seattle, but Spokane? You probably need to install gas heating or a wood burn fireplace since I don't think a heat pump would cut it east of the cascades. But I see how it would do wonders for air conditioning in the summer.

alephxyz 4y ago

The article does mention that 56% of Washington residents use electric heading

rahimnathwani 4y ago
The data source is based on occupied housing units, not residents: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?t=Heating%20and%20Air%20Conditioning%20%28HVAC%29&g=0100000US%240400000&y=2020&tid=ACSDT5Y2020.B25040&tp=true https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?t=Heating%20and%20Air%2... This may skew the stats if units without gas tend to be smaller (and need less heating), e.g. if it's predominantly condos that lack gas heating. According to that same data source 27% of California's occupied housing units are heated with electricity. That is much higher than I would have expected.

mech765 4y ago

How much do y'all pay per kilowatt hour for electricity? IIRC you guys have lots of cheap hydro power.

rdtwo 4y ago
10c
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  And heating with a natural gas furnace is still far cheaper. Obviously excluding costs of externalities not included in price of natural gas, but they are also not included in the electricity prices. Not that they are easily knowable in the first place.
  - matthewdgreen 4y ago
    I used this calculator [1] to compare based on the current price of utility natural gas and an 11 cent/kWh electric cost. The electric heat pump was significantly cheaper, to the tune of hundreds of dollars per year. [1] https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/ https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      It has been a few years since I did the calculations for my place, but if I put in my natural gas price ($1.05/therm), it is coming out near even. At which point, the initial costs and maintenance costs would be a factor, and back then, a heat pump with a capacity comparable to a gas furnace was much more expensive. So maybe the parameters have changed, but I also like that my gas furnace can be counted on at any temperature, plus it is not subject to electricity outages. Perhaps I would do both heat pump and gas furnace going toward, the furnace as backup for the heat pump and get the best of both worlds.
      - LarsAlereon 4y ago
        Another way of looking at that up-front cost is that it's basically an extra $100 when you install an air conditioning system, or that you get an air conditioning system for free along with your heating system. This is very relevant in Washington where we historically didn't need AC but with hotter summers it's starting to become a requirement for comfort. So there are lots of houses that have never had AC that need a system installed.

LarsAlereon 4y ago

The electricity to run a heat pump that moves heat where you want it is cheaper than the gas you need to burn to make an equivalent amount of heat. On the very coldest days the efficiency of a heat pump can drop enough for this not to be the case, but over the course of the year an electric heat pump will save you money over burning gas. There are pretty significant environmental costs to burning gas in our homes, less about the combustion exhaust than the total amount of leaks within the distribution system that allow unburned methane to escape to the atmosphere. There's also growing awareness that many classes of gas appliance produce a lot more indoor air pollution that causes lung disease (especially in children) than was previously expected.

rahimnathwani 4y ago
"The electricity to run a heat pump that moves heat where you want it is cheaper than the gas you need to burn to make an equivalent amount of heat." This must depend on the relative prices of gas and electricity. What's the threshold ratio beyond which gas is cheaper than a heat pump?
- hedora 4y ago
  It generally takes less gas to generate electricity, ship it, and run the heatpump than to directly heat the house with gas.
  - rahimnathwani 4y ago
    But I don't generate or ship electricity. I buy both my electricity and my gas from PG&E, and pay whatever price they charge for each. So the question of which is cheaper depends not on the fundamentals of physics of it, but on the relative prices PG&E charges for each.
    - hedora 4y ago
      In California, the heat pump will win, partially due to the mild climate, and partially due to natural gas somehow being even more overpriced than electricity.

scottlawson 4y ago

> As of 2020, 56% of Washington residents used electricity for heating, and 37% of residents used natural gas or bottled, tank, or LP gas. the majority of Washington residents using electric heating is a far cry from "resistive heating which almost nobody in my corner of washington is using."

legitster 4y ago
The majority of Washington residents live on the Western side of the state - much more mild weather. But out in the Spokane area, winters are much harsher.
rahimnathwani 4y ago
"56% of Washington residents" The source data's unit of measure is 'occupied housing units', so this claim by the article is unsupported.
idiotsecant 4y ago
Any statement that discusses the 'majority of washington residents' almost always could just be shortened to the 'the Seattle metro area' because that's where most people in Washington live. It just to happens that the eastern part of the state also has quite a few people, though, and it's more like Idaho climate than it is Seattle climate.

legitster 4y ago

I think people are unaware how heat pumps get preposterously less efficient the colder it gets. Once the unit ices over, it's not much better than a resistance heater.

LarsAlereon 4y ago
Modern heat pumps have minimum operating temperatures below 0F so they're still going to be providing efficient heat during winter conditions nearly anywhere in the world. Whenever excess frost builds up they run backwards for a few minutes to clean the coils off. This is a far cry from the old days of units that didn't operate well below freezing and ran a defrost operation on a simple timer.
- legitster 4y ago
  > Whenever excess frost builds up they run backwards for a few minutes to clean the coils off Yes, and in cold enough weather they can cycle that way all day. They function, but it's not terribly efficient.
  - LarsAlereon 4y ago
    The colder the weather the less humidity the air can old, so it's not really that much of an issue. Heat pumps definitely do lose efficiency as the air temp drops, which is why it's important to get one that has a size and minimum operating temperature that's appropriate for your use. Washington actually has an energy code that requires heat pumps be properly sized to heat the house without needing to fall back to resistance heat.
    - legitster 4y ago
      I live in Washington and am very familiar with heat pumps. I am sharing person experience - on cold days you will get much lower than the rated efficiency. In Eastern Washington, it's arguable that it would save you much energy over a resistive heater.

ispo 4y ago

A real human cost? This is an exaggeration. Also, are those suffering climate impacts counting in your equations??

seanmcdirmid 4y ago

> Yes, heat pumps reduce electricity consumption compared to resistive heating which almost nobody in my corner of washington is using. People here use natural gas which is historically pretty cheap even compared to relatively cheap electric rates for heating purposes. Ya, this made me wonder. I get Seattle, but Spokane? You probably need to install gas heating or a wood burn fireplace since I don't think a heat pump would cut it east of the cascades. But I see how it would do wonders for air conditioning in the summer.