5 ms·

>If solar panels can last 40 to 50 years, which is roughly double what used to be the rule of thumb for their life span Presumably, these panels face ever dimi

>If solar panels can last 40 to 50 years, which is roughly double what used to be the rule of thumb for their life span Presumably, these panels face ever diminishing efficiencies. What is the threshold where it makes sense to replace a working, but low efficiency panel with a new one? That is, if a field of ancient generation-1 panels is operating at 5% efficiency, is it worth the expense to tear them out and replace them with generation N?

heavenlyblue 4y ago
Usually, the warranty will guarantee a 90% power output for the first 10 years and a 80% power output for the entire 25 years. In fact, some panels can even remain over 80% efficient past the end of their lives. https://www.deegesolar.co.uk/how_long_do_solar_panels_last/ https://www.deegesolar.co.uk/how_long_do_solar_panels_last/
- jansan 4y ago
  > some panels can even remain over 80% efficient past the end of their lives. Then it shouln't be the end of their lives, should it?
1123581321 4y ago
That’s a good question. Setting aside climate change and fossil fuel issues, the general answer is something like when the present value of a new installation, minus installation cost, is greater than the present value of the existing installation. Estimation can’t be precise but after 20 or 25 years, the homeowner will have some idea of the remaining efficiency they’re dealing with. They might know the reliability of their inverters, too. The replacement installation should be cheaper since initial permitting and electrical hookup is in place, and the roof mount might be reusable. Tax incentives to modernize old solar installations will factor significantly. Put another way: how high did your electric bill have to be to justify installing panels in the first place?
- fbdab103 4y ago
  I was thinking of industrial installations, but similar issue with residential. I assume that not many roofs are good after 20-30 years, so by the time the solar panel warranty starts to expire, it is time to get a new roof. Might as well upgrade panels at the same time.
  - 1123581321 4y ago
    Ah, sure. Yes, similar math. I forgot that for residential, in many areas the replacement panels would probably come about like a typical roof replacement: after a storm, subsidized by insurance. That may be the case with industrial/commercial as well, but I’m not familiar with insurance trends there.
newsclues 4y ago
If you need x kw of power for daily use and your panels dip below that production figure you need to add more or replace the panels. A market system for the lifecycle of panels to move the from new high value installation to lower cost ones with lower efficiency. No need to recycle until they’ve been completely used. Probably move them from the North to rural southern areas of America, or perhaps to the developing world who hopefully can use the last few watts before a local recycling facility.
landemva 4y ago
Hawaii, near southern point, has a road with one side abandoned windmills. At least mines in USA have a reclamation plan and bond to pay for it. https://advertiser-tribune.com/news/191061/trip-to-hawaii-reveals-rusting-wind-turbines https://advertiser-tribune.com/news/191061/trip-to-hawaii-re...
- Schroedingersat 4y ago
  Oh look. It's a lie. Article dated 2019 about something that had been decomissined for 7 years (and were not even abandoned to begin with but in the process of being replaced and then investigated for reopening). https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2012/03/31/turbines-come-down-at-defunct-wind-farm/ https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2012/03/31/turbines-come-dow... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY-bxSO82qI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY-bxSO82qI
  - landemva 4y ago
    I drove there down a southern road in 2010 past a long row of rusting windmills. I have not been back since then, so I don't know the current condition. I saw many near the southern-most point. What are your thoughts on a site reclamation bond before construction?
    - Schroedingersat 4y ago
      As long as it's indexed off actual decomissioning costs somehow and not just a wind-tax (and similarly doesn't massively underfund like the nuclear decommisioning levy) I think it's an excellent idea. We shouldn't let utilities get away with shit just because it's not fossil fuels.
      - landemva 4y ago
        I don't know details about nuclear decommisioning. In my experience, State permitting standards for decommissioning bonds have been implemented as part of mine permitting and oil and gas permitting. I would like to see more people getting their States to be proactive on all of this: mines wells tires PV iDevices. The laboratory of States will find and create solutions, without a one-size-fits-none federal mandate.

heavenlyblue 4y ago

Usually, the warranty will guarantee a 90% power output for the first 10 years and a 80% power output for the entire 25 years. In fact, some panels can even remain over 80% efficient past the end of their lives. https://www.deegesolar.co.uk/how_long_do_solar_panels_last/ https://www.deegesolar.co.uk/how_long_do_solar_panels_last/

jansan 4y ago
> some panels can even remain over 80% efficient past the end of their lives. Then it shouln't be the end of their lives, should it?

1123581321 4y ago

That’s a good question. Setting aside climate change and fossil fuel issues, the general answer is something like when the present value of a new installation, minus installation cost, is greater than the present value of the existing installation. Estimation can’t be precise but after 20 or 25 years, the homeowner will have some idea of the remaining efficiency they’re dealing with. They might know the reliability of their inverters, too. The replacement installation should be cheaper since initial permitting and electrical hookup is in place, and the roof mount might be reusable. Tax incentives to modernize old solar installations will factor significantly. Put another way: how high did your electric bill have to be to justify installing panels in the first place?

fbdab103 4y ago
I was thinking of industrial installations, but similar issue with residential. I assume that not many roofs are good after 20-30 years, so by the time the solar panel warranty starts to expire, it is time to get a new roof. Might as well upgrade panels at the same time.
- 1123581321 4y ago
  Ah, sure. Yes, similar math. I forgot that for residential, in many areas the replacement panels would probably come about like a typical roof replacement: after a storm, subsidized by insurance. That may be the case with industrial/commercial as well, but I’m not familiar with insurance trends there.

newsclues 4y ago

If you need x kw of power for daily use and your panels dip below that production figure you need to add more or replace the panels. A market system for the lifecycle of panels to move the from new high value installation to lower cost ones with lower efficiency. No need to recycle until they’ve been completely used. Probably move them from the North to rural southern areas of America, or perhaps to the developing world who hopefully can use the last few watts before a local recycling facility.

landemva 4y ago

Hawaii, near southern point, has a road with one side abandoned windmills. At least mines in USA have a reclamation plan and bond to pay for it. https://advertiser-tribune.com/news/191061/trip-to-hawaii-reveals-rusting-wind-turbines https://advertiser-tribune.com/news/191061/trip-to-hawaii-re...

Schroedingersat 4y ago
Oh look. It's a lie. Article dated 2019 about something that had been decomissined for 7 years (and were not even abandoned to begin with but in the process of being replaced and then investigated for reopening). https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2012/03/31/turbines-come-down-at-defunct-wind-farm/ https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2012/03/31/turbines-come-dow... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY-bxSO82qI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY-bxSO82qI
- landemva 4y ago
  I drove there down a southern road in 2010 past a long row of rusting windmills. I have not been back since then, so I don't know the current condition. I saw many near the southern-most point. What are your thoughts on a site reclamation bond before construction?
  - Schroedingersat 4y ago
    As long as it's indexed off actual decomissioning costs somehow and not just a wind-tax (and similarly doesn't massively underfund like the nuclear decommisioning levy) I think it's an excellent idea. We shouldn't let utilities get away with shit just because it's not fossil fuels.
    - landemva 4y ago
      I don't know details about nuclear decommisioning. In my experience, State permitting standards for decommissioning bonds have been implemented as part of mine permitting and oil and gas permitting. I would like to see more people getting their States to be proactive on all of this: mines wells tires PV iDevices. The laboratory of States will find and create solutions, without a one-size-fits-none federal mandate.