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> Remote work > Anticipate more mid-size and smaller companies will go back more fully into the office as times get tougher. This will not be one size fits all

> Remote work > Anticipate more mid-size and smaller companies will go back more fully into the office as times get tougher. This will not be one size fits all, but will be an increasing trend. Up to this point in the article, whether you agree or disagree with the points, the author offers some arguments and reasoning supporting each. Here, they simply assert that small and mid-size companies will go into the office, with no supporting argument. Why? Won't many small and mid-size companies have come up under covid and not have an office lease in the liabilities column? Why would they pay (insert large city) rents to save money? How does it help?

chrisbolt 4y ago
> Won't many small and mid-size companies have come up under covid and not have an office lease in the liabilities column? Were they started during Covid? Office leases are typically at least 5 years, so most existing companies will still have them, hence return. Edit: removed assertion assertion
- bbreier 4y ago
  This is a minor nitpick, but it was a question, not an assertion.
  - chrisbolt 4y ago
    You’re right, my apologies. I shouldn’t write comments after a scotch on a long day :)
    - bbreier 4y ago
      No biggy my dude, it was clear from the jump that you didn't intend anything combative. Enjoy your scotch
      - chrisbolt 4y ago
        Cheers!
- Schnitz 4y ago
  There’s a lot of 50-100 person offices used by 5-10 people a day right now because the friendly nudges and incentives to bring people back to the office are falling flat.
  - eropple 4y ago
    The incentives are mostly bad ones. Companies that understand remote work have done a really good job of netting talent that is not in the Bay or New York, and I'm very happy to be working for one.
  - justahuman74 4y ago
    If there's only 5-10 people a day, they should be getting nice offices rather than the typical open plan. That might actually entice others to come in. In lots of tv shows the high-social-value characters have very nice offices (ie, it has a door and a couch). I'd go in-person for one of those.
    - llampx 4y ago
      Hahaha, no way that is happening. Open plan stays, and people are actually coming to the office and attending most meetings on Zoom sitting at their desk. I am no fan of that. If I come to the office I want to see real people.
- mmcgaha 4y ago
  Indeed and many are in long term leases that can be 10 or 20 years and these companies leased (or even built) for growth. They have also invested in building rooms, buying equipment, power and networking. To these guys it is feeling like they wasted a lot of money and of course they are going to think about this investment and want folks to come back to the office. As the job market is changing, I am worried about my work-from-home status despite having started over a year before the pandemic. I just think there is going to be a mass get your butt in the office email that will include everyone.
UncleOxidant 4y ago
He seems to be writing for CEOs. Reading further he seems to figure that CEOs will be able to reassert control of employees by forcing them back to the office since employees are not going to be able to easily jump ship for another job. As CEO now is your opportunity to rethink remote work. You may decide you want to continue as is, or you may want to make changes. You have an opportunity to act. Not that returning to the office will necessarily result in better results, but many CEOs will tend to believe that things will go better with everyone back in the office.
- TexanFeller 4y ago
  > but many CEOs will tend to believe that things will go better with everyone back in the office Many of us SWEs believe the same!
  - harryVic 4y ago
    SWEs that want to force everyone back to office have no life or a personality outside of their job.
    - ThunderSizzle 4y ago
      For real. Make some friends outside of work. Or enjoy time with your family. Or take time to make a family.
      - llampx 4y ago
        We are still talking about working during work, right? Or are you playing with your kids and having beers with your friends while you work? It is a strawman argument to claim that people who want to go to the office have no social life. It is in fact easier to claim that "only antisocial people want to hide at home like a hermit with their webcam shut off."
        ThunderSizzle 4y ago
brailsafe 4y ago
The one fully remote company I knew of personally was a small consultancy. Everyone just contracts out to larger ones, so no nead for their own office, but I guess they were onsite with their clients
dehrmann 4y ago
> Why would they pay (insert large city) rents to save money? How does it help? This is still a bit of an open question. Productivity can be a weird metric because it doesn't capture if you're making the right thing, just that you're making something. WFH productivity was also measured at a pretty weird time, so there wasn't a good control. What you'll see is a lot CEOs pick policies by which model they prefer, and in a poor labor market, they'll have the leverage to do it.
TexanFeller 4y ago
Companies will require RTO because it makes employees more productive. I've worked at one small and one large company during the pandemic involuntary WFH. In both cases productivity was noticeably worse, most especially for new employees onboarding remotely. I think WFH a couple days a week makes me more productive due to focus, but I'm unproductive and miserable now when none of my teammates ever come in. We're laughably disconnected and not functioning like a team. Zoom and Slack are just no substitute.
- dymk 4y ago
  my remote only company is way more productive than my previous in-person company, so there’s the counter anecdote to your anecdote
  - deltree7 4y ago
    I'll take any IC or low-level employee's productivity claim with a grain of salt. For a CEO, productivity is at a first order is operating margins. 99% of HNers have no clue how to calculate that (nor have the necessary data).
    - dymk 4y ago
      And what’re your qualifications and citations?
    - bitcharmer 4y ago
      > 99% of HNers have no clue how to calculate that This is just plain wrong. In big organizations it's the front line worker and not the CEO that can confidently gauge productivity changes simply because C level bean counters always try to quantify productivity with flawed metrics likes lines of code when most people know it's nonsensical.
      - onethought 4y ago
        I think, being generous to the GP doesn’t matter how “productive” a single person or team works, if the whole thing isn’t working well (usually measured in margin) then it doesn’t matter if the engineers “feel” more productive.
nprz 4y ago
I think employers might have a hard time convincing their entire remote workforce to sell their house / break their lease and move to entirely new city.
pcurve 4y ago
What happens to people who were hired as fully remote during pandemic?
- jjav 4y ago
  At least at Twitter, sounds like they are in trouble.
  - throwaway5959 4y ago
    Yeah, they’re all effectively fired unless they have the flexibility to pack a back and fly to SF or another Twitter office on Monday, at least from what it sounded like on the leaked call (there was mention of special circumstances but that sounds like only for people in emergency situations). Kinda fucked up.
anothernewdude 4y ago
It's ridiculous because getting rid of the office entirely is the biggest cost savings going.
nickstinemates 4y ago
For our ~200 person company, remote has been more expensive than an office in the financial district, sf, fwiw. Cost of travel for team get togethers/offsites for a distributed team is expensive.
- ilyt 4y ago
  That doesn't sound like being remote
- calineczka 4y ago
  Is it more expensive than keeping an office for entire year, though?
  - nickstinemates 4y ago
    Yes
    - theshrike79 4y ago
      ...how fancy are your offsites exactly? :D
- bitcharmer 4y ago
  This doesn't seem like you're remote at all
- scarface74 4y ago
  How much more expensive would salaries have to be to convince those same 200 people to work in SFO? Ironically enough, I was just at a team meeting in the SFO financial district. They would have to pay me at least $100K more for me to even consider moving to San Francisco - and that’s only because my kids are grown and we could give up our nice big house in the burbs in a much lower cost area.
onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
The cost of office space for tech employees rarely exceeds 5% of pay (for high-paid tech workers). It's not as expensive as you might first expect. To the people who actually go into the office, it's probably well worth it.
- heurisko 4y ago
  If employers offered the same working environment as a home office, it would be much more expensive. Open plan is only cheap on the books. It costs a lot in decimating the focus of people working there.
  - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
    Ymmv, but for me work from office is far more productive than from home. It also allows a very effective context switch so you don't feel like working when you are at home.
    - jowdones 4y ago
      My commute to and from the office took 3 hours+ per day. Now I work from home 2 (two) jobs, one full time that used to be the office and one contract. I make 2x what the single office job pays me and only so I'm close to a decent pay while still below US average for developers (I live in EU). No ducking way I'm going back to half pay plus wasting half a day in traffic for free.
      - oriolid 4y ago
        I have the suspicion that your situation is not really representative of software developers in general. It's great if it works for you but don't expect others to help you if they're not getting their share of that 2x.
      - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
        Well 3hours commute per day is, of course, not too good. I get to office on foot in 90 seconds, so it certainly affects my POV (on the other hand, it used to be longer, but I just moved close to the office). On you working 2 jobs: I knew people who were working remotely 2 full-time jobs at the same time. I think their employers wouldn't be thrilled if they somehow found out about it
jjav 4y ago
> Won't many small and mid-size companies have come up under covid and not have an office lease in the liabilities column? There are way more small and medium sized companies which are older than 3 years.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
imo, this isn't a decision that can be made in isolation; it depends entirely on what your competitors are doing. If your competitors are working from an office and out-producing you, you have no choice but to follow suit. Like in sales, you're much more likely to close the deal if you meet in-person than over a Zoom call. If your competitors are flying out salespeople to meet clients, but you're still stuck on Zoom, you won't catch a bid.
kramerger 4y ago
Edit: he has another article with si6nce explanation about CEOs need to directly interact with employees when the company is of certain size https://blog.eladgil.com/p/back-to-office https://blog.eladgil.com/p/back-to-office But reading between the lines, he seems to consider remote workers being the lowest performers and a danger to the company culture and mission. If fell he is also deliberately missing the point of remote work even when it hits him in the face, for example > a few companies anecdotally see more employees going back in NYC offices than SF. This probably has more to do with local work culture
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
m0llusk 4y ago
Remote is cheaper and there is a squeeze happening.
seadan83 4y ago
Seemingly lot of other points are similarly made without the supporting evidence. Eg: wage growth driving inflation - what wage growth? Checking this, the pandemic pushed the US out of a period of low wage growth, it's not extreme and is similar to the 60s thru 80s: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth Re: printing money and money drops, that seems to entirely ignore that was happening while unemployment was in the double digits. Re: drivers on inflation, Karie Porter has some really interesting presentations that input costs are not increasing proportionally to profit increases (regardless what you think of her, the data presented stands on its own). That evidence suggests simple price gauging is a significant factor (citation: https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart/corporate-profits-we-see-you/amp/ https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart/corporate-pr...) Those are just some examples of yet more statements given as assertions, which seem somewhat foundational to the remaining conclusions. These flaws really gives me pause for any of the analysis presented.

chrisbolt 4y ago

> Won't many small and mid-size companies have come up under covid and not have an office lease in the liabilities column? Were they started during Covid? Office leases are typically at least 5 years, so most existing companies will still have them, hence return. Edit: removed assertion assertion

bbreier 4y ago
This is a minor nitpick, but it was a question, not an assertion.
- chrisbolt 4y ago
  You’re right, my apologies. I shouldn’t write comments after a scotch on a long day :)
  - bbreier 4y ago
    No biggy my dude, it was clear from the jump that you didn't intend anything combative. Enjoy your scotch
    - chrisbolt 4y ago
      Cheers!
Schnitz 4y ago
There’s a lot of 50-100 person offices used by 5-10 people a day right now because the friendly nudges and incentives to bring people back to the office are falling flat.
- eropple 4y ago
  The incentives are mostly bad ones. Companies that understand remote work have done a really good job of netting talent that is not in the Bay or New York, and I'm very happy to be working for one.
- justahuman74 4y ago
  If there's only 5-10 people a day, they should be getting nice offices rather than the typical open plan. That might actually entice others to come in. In lots of tv shows the high-social-value characters have very nice offices (ie, it has a door and a couch). I'd go in-person for one of those.
  - llampx 4y ago
    Hahaha, no way that is happening. Open plan stays, and people are actually coming to the office and attending most meetings on Zoom sitting at their desk. I am no fan of that. If I come to the office I want to see real people.
mmcgaha 4y ago
Indeed and many are in long term leases that can be 10 or 20 years and these companies leased (or even built) for growth. They have also invested in building rooms, buying equipment, power and networking. To these guys it is feeling like they wasted a lot of money and of course they are going to think about this investment and want folks to come back to the office. As the job market is changing, I am worried about my work-from-home status despite having started over a year before the pandemic. I just think there is going to be a mass get your butt in the office email that will include everyone.

UncleOxidant 4y ago

He seems to be writing for CEOs. Reading further he seems to figure that CEOs will be able to reassert control of employees by forcing them back to the office since employees are not going to be able to easily jump ship for another job. As CEO now is your opportunity to rethink remote work. You may decide you want to continue as is, or you may want to make changes. You have an opportunity to act. Not that returning to the office will necessarily result in better results, but many CEOs will tend to believe that things will go better with everyone back in the office.

TexanFeller 4y ago
> but many CEOs will tend to believe that things will go better with everyone back in the office Many of us SWEs believe the same!
- harryVic 4y ago
  SWEs that want to force everyone back to office have no life or a personality outside of their job.
  - ThunderSizzle 4y ago
    For real. Make some friends outside of work. Or enjoy time with your family. Or take time to make a family.
    - llampx 4y ago
      We are still talking about working during work, right? Or are you playing with your kids and having beers with your friends while you work? It is a strawman argument to claim that people who want to go to the office have no social life. It is in fact easier to claim that "only antisocial people want to hide at home like a hermit with their webcam shut off."
      - ThunderSizzle 4y ago

brailsafe 4y ago

The one fully remote company I knew of personally was a small consultancy. Everyone just contracts out to larger ones, so no nead for their own office, but I guess they were onsite with their clients

dehrmann 4y ago

> Why would they pay (insert large city) rents to save money? How does it help? This is still a bit of an open question. Productivity can be a weird metric because it doesn't capture if you're making the right thing, just that you're making something. WFH productivity was also measured at a pretty weird time, so there wasn't a good control. What you'll see is a lot CEOs pick policies by which model they prefer, and in a poor labor market, they'll have the leverage to do it.

TexanFeller 4y ago

Companies will require RTO because it makes employees more productive. I've worked at one small and one large company during the pandemic involuntary WFH. In both cases productivity was noticeably worse, most especially for new employees onboarding remotely. I think WFH a couple days a week makes me more productive due to focus, but I'm unproductive and miserable now when none of my teammates ever come in. We're laughably disconnected and not functioning like a team. Zoom and Slack are just no substitute.

dymk 4y ago
my remote only company is way more productive than my previous in-person company, so there’s the counter anecdote to your anecdote
- deltree7 4y ago
  I'll take any IC or low-level employee's productivity claim with a grain of salt. For a CEO, productivity is at a first order is operating margins. 99% of HNers have no clue how to calculate that (nor have the necessary data).
  - dymk 4y ago
    And what’re your qualifications and citations?
  - bitcharmer 4y ago
    > 99% of HNers have no clue how to calculate that This is just plain wrong. In big organizations it's the front line worker and not the CEO that can confidently gauge productivity changes simply because C level bean counters always try to quantify productivity with flawed metrics likes lines of code when most people know it's nonsensical.
    - onethought 4y ago
      I think, being generous to the GP doesn’t matter how “productive” a single person or team works, if the whole thing isn’t working well (usually measured in margin) then it doesn’t matter if the engineers “feel” more productive.

nprz 4y ago

I think employers might have a hard time convincing their entire remote workforce to sell their house / break their lease and move to entirely new city.

pcurve 4y ago

What happens to people who were hired as fully remote during pandemic?

jjav 4y ago
At least at Twitter, sounds like they are in trouble.
- throwaway5959 4y ago
  Yeah, they’re all effectively fired unless they have the flexibility to pack a back and fly to SF or another Twitter office on Monday, at least from what it sounded like on the leaked call (there was mention of special circumstances but that sounds like only for people in emergency situations). Kinda fucked up.

anothernewdude 4y ago

It's ridiculous because getting rid of the office entirely is the biggest cost savings going.

nickstinemates 4y ago

For our ~200 person company, remote has been more expensive than an office in the financial district, sf, fwiw. Cost of travel for team get togethers/offsites for a distributed team is expensive.

ilyt 4y ago
That doesn't sound like being remote
calineczka 4y ago
Is it more expensive than keeping an office for entire year, though?
- nickstinemates 4y ago
  Yes
  - theshrike79 4y ago
    ...how fancy are your offsites exactly? :D
bitcharmer 4y ago
This doesn't seem like you're remote at all
scarface74 4y ago
How much more expensive would salaries have to be to convince those same 200 people to work in SFO? Ironically enough, I was just at a team meeting in the SFO financial district. They would have to pay me at least $100K more for me to even consider moving to San Francisco - and that’s only because my kids are grown and we could give up our nice big house in the burbs in a much lower cost area.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago

The cost of office space for tech employees rarely exceeds 5% of pay (for high-paid tech workers). It's not as expensive as you might first expect. To the people who actually go into the office, it's probably well worth it.

heurisko 4y ago
If employers offered the same working environment as a home office, it would be much more expensive. Open plan is only cheap on the books. It costs a lot in decimating the focus of people working there.
- Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
  Ymmv, but for me work from office is far more productive than from home. It also allows a very effective context switch so you don't feel like working when you are at home.
  - jowdones 4y ago
    My commute to and from the office took 3 hours+ per day. Now I work from home 2 (two) jobs, one full time that used to be the office and one contract. I make 2x what the single office job pays me and only so I'm close to a decent pay while still below US average for developers (I live in EU). No ducking way I'm going back to half pay plus wasting half a day in traffic for free.
    - oriolid 4y ago
      I have the suspicion that your situation is not really representative of software developers in general. It's great if it works for you but don't expect others to help you if they're not getting their share of that 2x.
    - Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
      Well 3hours commute per day is, of course, not too good. I get to office on foot in 90 seconds, so it certainly affects my POV (on the other hand, it used to be longer, but I just moved close to the office). On you working 2 jobs: I knew people who were working remotely 2 full-time jobs at the same time. I think their employers wouldn't be thrilled if they somehow found out about it

jjav 4y ago

> Won't many small and mid-size companies have come up under covid and not have an office lease in the liabilities column? There are way more small and medium sized companies which are older than 3 years.

spaceman_2020 4y ago

imo, this isn't a decision that can be made in isolation; it depends entirely on what your competitors are doing. If your competitors are working from an office and out-producing you, you have no choice but to follow suit. Like in sales, you're much more likely to close the deal if you meet in-person than over a Zoom call. If your competitors are flying out salespeople to meet clients, but you're still stuck on Zoom, you won't catch a bid.

kramerger 4y ago

Edit: he has another article with si6nce explanation about CEOs need to directly interact with employees when the company is of certain size https://blog.eladgil.com/p/back-to-office https://blog.eladgil.com/p/back-to-office But reading between the lines, he seems to consider remote workers being the lowest performers and a danger to the company culture and mission. If fell he is also deliberately missing the point of remote work even when it hits him in the face, for example > a few companies anecdotally see more employees going back in NYC offices than SF. This probably has more to do with local work culture

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

m0llusk 4y ago

Remote is cheaper and there is a squeeze happening.

seadan83 4y ago

Seemingly lot of other points are similarly made without the supporting evidence. Eg: wage growth driving inflation - what wage growth? Checking this, the pandemic pushed the US out of a period of low wage growth, it's not extreme and is similar to the 60s thru 80s: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth Re: printing money and money drops, that seems to entirely ignore that was happening while unemployment was in the double digits. Re: drivers on inflation, Karie Porter has some really interesting presentations that input costs are not increasing proportionally to profit increases (regardless what you think of her, the data presented stands on its own). That evidence suggests simple price gauging is a significant factor (citation: https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart/corporate-profits-we-see-you/amp/ https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart/corporate-pr...) Those are just some examples of yet more statements given as assertions, which seem somewhat foundational to the remaining conclusions. These flaws really gives me pause for any of the analysis presented.