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> a software so buggy it adds negative value is a rare exception. Survivorship bias will explain all of that. You'll rarely encounter negative software because

> a software so buggy it adds negative value is a rare exception. Survivorship bias will explain all of that. You'll rarely encounter negative software because it gets discarded. It doesn't mean it's never created, it just dies before getting wide visibility. > otherwise software wouldn't have economies of scale. The fact that software can be developed once and sold indefinitely means the marginal cost is near zero. That is an unbelievably huge economy of scale that would dwarf many other superlinear problems. > how do we explain the apparent stability of large but mature codebases? Not all software changes are additions. If assume that codebase size is positively correlated with number of bugs (i.e. more code = more bugs) and that most changes that do not grow the codebase are likely to fix at least one bug, then mature codebases should be expected to improve in quality to the degree that number of changes outpaces total codebase size.

Forge36 4y ago
I had to kill one of those projects. It was so buggy it was causing issues in "unrelated" areas. I find out Thanksgiving week if I killed it early enough for the next release.
majormajor 4y ago
> The fact that software can be developed once and sold indefinitely means the marginal cost is near zero. That is an unbelievably huge economy of scale that would dwarf many other superlinear problems. I'd propose a slight revision: "software can be developed once and used indefinitely." I would bet that most code nowdays is written inside organizations and never directly "sold" over and over again to a customer. But even that tends to result in those organizations wanting more and more, because even a buggy one tends to save people time compared to doing the process manually, and then there's another process they want to automate next, etc...
- oriolid 4y ago
  I'd propose replacing "indefinitely" with "until the systems it interacts with require changing it". It takes surprisingly short time for a mobile app that is written to current standards to turn into something that doesn't run on latest updated OS version. It's a good point that selling software indefinitely isn't possible. There are only a limited amount of people who want the software and are willing to pay for it.
- munificent 4y ago
  It's still effectively "sold" in economic terms. You have one codebase and it generates revenue per customer (where "customer" may either be an end user, or an advertiser for ad-supported software).
Aeolun 4y ago
Software size is positively correlated with bugs, but software age is negatively correlated? If your codebase doesn’t grow much in size but grows older, the quality should become better.
- pfdietz 4y ago
  The best software is very old and has been polished to a mirror-like gloss. Having any ongoing development means you get an equilibrium level of defects, though.

Forge36 4y ago

I had to kill one of those projects. It was so buggy it was causing issues in "unrelated" areas. I find out Thanksgiving week if I killed it early enough for the next release.

majormajor 4y ago

> The fact that software can be developed once and sold indefinitely means the marginal cost is near zero. That is an unbelievably huge economy of scale that would dwarf many other superlinear problems. I'd propose a slight revision: "software can be developed once and used indefinitely." I would bet that most code nowdays is written inside organizations and never directly "sold" over and over again to a customer. But even that tends to result in those organizations wanting more and more, because even a buggy one tends to save people time compared to doing the process manually, and then there's another process they want to automate next, etc...

oriolid 4y ago
I'd propose replacing "indefinitely" with "until the systems it interacts with require changing it". It takes surprisingly short time for a mobile app that is written to current standards to turn into something that doesn't run on latest updated OS version. It's a good point that selling software indefinitely isn't possible. There are only a limited amount of people who want the software and are willing to pay for it.
munificent 4y ago
It's still effectively "sold" in economic terms. You have one codebase and it generates revenue per customer (where "customer" may either be an end user, or an advertiser for ad-supported software).

Aeolun 4y ago

Software size is positively correlated with bugs, but software age is negatively correlated? If your codebase doesn’t grow much in size but grows older, the quality should become better.

pfdietz 4y ago
The best software is very old and has been polished to a mirror-like gloss. Having any ongoing development means you get an equilibrium level of defects, though.