11 ms·

Hensley says that this is because the population “is more immunologically naive than what we would expect in most years”. Normally, children get infected by the

Hensley says that this is because the population “is more immunologically naive than what we would expect in most years”. Normally, children get infected by their second birthday. Now, “you’re going to end up having kids that are three, four years of age right now who have never seen RSV”. ...it reminds me of the phenomenon that, the longer you go between busts/economic recessions, the worse they tend to be, because you will tend to have more zombie companies ready to go under. Sometimes what seems like preventing a problem, is actually just storing up problems to experience all at once at a later date.

hedgehog 4y ago
Intuitively it sounds nice but I haven't seen any actual evidence that this is what's happening. It seems a lot like the story that kids don't get COVID, a feel-good story but not really based on anything but hopeful speculation.
- peteradio 4y ago
  > like the story that kids don't get COVID What story is that? Are you sure you aren't misparaphrasing the fact that kids are not susceptible to severe outcomes?
  - r2_pilot 4y ago
    It was a common dis-information campaign until reality hit so hard that nobody could possibly support the idea: https://fullfact.org/health/children-can-get-coronavirus/ https://fullfact.org/health/children-can-get-coronavirus/
    - briandon 4y ago
      Kids are at significantly less risk of severe illness from covid than from influenza. This is well-known (see https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34107134/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34107134/ for example). I remember when the CDC quietly subtracted more than 72k alleged covid deaths, including some alleged pediatric covid deaths, from the tally and blamed a "coding error": https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/cdc-coding-error-overcount-covid-deaths https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/cdc-coding-err...
    - ohiovr 4y ago
      This is patently absurd to say a disease that causes bad outcomes for 2 in a million should recieve a drug that causes bad outcomes for millions. Keep it up! Are you an insider too? What do your fact checkers say about the leading cause of death in Canada?
  - hedgehog 4y ago
    Yes, it was repeat messaging from the presidents on down. https://www.google.com/search?q=%22kids+don%27t+catch+covid%22 https://www.google.com/search?q=%22kids+don%27t+catch+covid%...
slindsey 4y ago
That seems to be a problem in other areas as well, such as wildfires.
- rossdavidh 4y ago
  Good point.
- VancouverMan 4y ago
  This shouldn't be surprising. The economy, forestry, and healthcare are all examples of government intervention that introduces artificial distortions that make a situation worse than it otherwise would have been had natural balances been allowed to proceed without those artificial distortions.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    They're also examples of places where a lack of government intervention can be harmful. Wildfires are a problem in part because people, left to their own devices, build in places they probably shouldn't have. (Or plant eucalyptus in California. Whoops.) Healthcare, unregulated, is where we get the term "snake oil salesman" and cocaine-based panaceas from; most of the places with more regulation of healthcare than the US like Europe have both cheaper healthcare and similar health outcomes. An entirely unregulated economy gets you something more like Somalia and Afghanistan's. etc. etc. etc.
    - PraetorianGourd 4y ago
      I would be all for cocaine-based panaceas.
  - taeric 4y ago
    Any intervention system can be used as an example for why you should intervene. Just as any intervention system can be used as an example for why you should not.
boringg 4y ago
Life is a delicate balance in all things.
boplicity 4y ago
Based on my (admittedly) anectdotal evidence: there's been very little mask wearing for almost a year, and in that time a very large percentage of the people I've known have gotten various colds and/or COVID. (This summer, it seems almost everyone who hadn't had it yet, finally got it.) The big shift happened when they lifted the mask mandate for schools here in early 2022: Our kids came back with a cold every 2 weeks, for approximately 2.5 months. That was not fun. All of which is to say that it's not clear at all that we've been "storing up" a problem -- and if we have, much of it has already been let out of storage, so to speak.
- proc0 4y ago
  It would seem to me masks are precisely "storing up" the problem, especially with children and younger people who are not that much at risk. In retro, I guess masks and lockdowns only delayed the inevitable, which to some extent was justified, but I think as this article suggests, it has a price.
  - mellavora 4y ago
    I'm not sure what you mean by "not that much at risk", the parent posted > Our kids came back with a cold every 2 weeks, for approximately 2.5 months. That was not fun. Noting also that frequent colds can lead to lifelong asthma conditions Noting further that we really don't know the long-term effects of Covid on young people (both in the more frequent case of a speedy recovery and in the less frequent "long Covid"). Masks in school, and basic good hygiene (washing hands, having the school disinfect contact surfaces such as doorknobs multiple times per day, ...) go a long way to keeping everyone safe and healthy.
    - JamesonNetworks 4y ago
      I haven’t looked at any data, but I wonder if the cold -> asthma correlation might be reversed, ie asthma as a condition leads to more vulnerability to colds
      - 4y ago
mschuster91 4y ago
> Normally, children get infected by their second birthday. Now, “you’re going to end up having kids that are three, four years of age right now who have never seen RSV”. In an ideal world, we'd vaccinate children against RSV. Acquiring immunity by suffering through an actual infection is always, always worse than acquiring it by a vaccine. About 100k children die from RSV each year! Thankfully, there are vaccines in the pipeline [1], and I seriously hope that mRNA technology will increase both the development speed and the availability of vaccines in general. [1] https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-announces-positive-top-line-data-phase-3-global https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta...
- taxicabjesus 4y ago
- taolegal 4y ago
  > Acquiring immunity by suffering through an actual infection is always, always worse than acquiring it by a vaccine say that to the whoever ends up coming down with narcolepsy, thrombocytopenia, acute peri/myo-carditis, shingles reactivation, etc.
  - HarryHirsch 4y ago
    We've had a lot of shingles cases the last year because of immune system damage caused by Covid. What are you even talking about?
    - taolegal 4y ago
      I had a family member come down with shingles shortly after getting boosted, hasn't been infected with covid in years. There's enough discussion about this happening after vaccination: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579250/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579250/ "Conclusion: This study indicates that the occurrence of VZV reactivation is clinically relevant. However, our findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination is safe, and remains strongly recommended." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35931613/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35931613/ Of course there's the obligatory, robotic, throat-clearing that vaccines should still be taken even when they find evidence of a side-effect.
sp332 4y ago
RSV is more dangerous for young children. Putting off exposure for a couple of years should reduce the number of serious cases. It's not one of those things like chicken pox where, if you're going to get it, it's better to get it younger. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2022.826666/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2022.8266...
- taolegal 4y ago
  > Putting off exposure for a couple of years lets lock kids in solitary confinement until it's safe to leave, good plan /s
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    There's a nice big middle ground between solitary confinement and doing nothing. I'd love to see schools take a serious look at air movement and filtration.
    - taolegal 4y ago
      We didn't take a middle ground. Kids (the poorest and most disadvantaged) suffered a massive, irrecoverable learning loss under the mandates of public health experts.
      - ceejayoz 4y ago
        We absolutely took a middle ground. Schools could've stayed closed much longer, masks could've been required much longer, vaccines could've been made mandatory. We prioritized cleaning over ventilation, to our severe detriment. Deeming it "irrecoverable" requires a time machine; one of the most frustrating parts about dealing with child development is the impacts take decades to sort out, in sometimes surprising fashion.
        taolegal 4y ago
        > We absolutely took a middle ground. Europe apparently operated a lot less draconian wrt schools, never really closed down & things worked out pretty well. The science was pretty clear even from early on but democrats in US said georgia reopening schools was "an exercise in human sacrifice." You don't need a middle ground for the least vulnerable age-range for covid. > Deeming it "irrecoverable" requires a time machine what? it's irrecoverable because you never get back lost time, the past is settled and kids lost out on crucial brain development windows
deegles 4y ago
I believe the increased hospitalization rates are due to is the immune system damage damage caused by Covid.
- tiahura 4y ago
  A reasonable theory, but as the article points out, last year, as Omicron infections increased, flu decreased. This year, Omicron down & flu up.

hedgehog 4y ago

Intuitively it sounds nice but I haven't seen any actual evidence that this is what's happening. It seems a lot like the story that kids don't get COVID, a feel-good story but not really based on anything but hopeful speculation.

peteradio 4y ago
> like the story that kids don't get COVID What story is that? Are you sure you aren't misparaphrasing the fact that kids are not susceptible to severe outcomes?
- r2_pilot 4y ago
  It was a common dis-information campaign until reality hit so hard that nobody could possibly support the idea: https://fullfact.org/health/children-can-get-coronavirus/ https://fullfact.org/health/children-can-get-coronavirus/
  - briandon 4y ago
    Kids are at significantly less risk of severe illness from covid than from influenza. This is well-known (see https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34107134/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34107134/ for example). I remember when the CDC quietly subtracted more than 72k alleged covid deaths, including some alleged pediatric covid deaths, from the tally and blamed a "coding error": https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/cdc-coding-error-overcount-covid-deaths https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/cdc-coding-err...
  - ohiovr 4y ago
    This is patently absurd to say a disease that causes bad outcomes for 2 in a million should recieve a drug that causes bad outcomes for millions. Keep it up! Are you an insider too? What do your fact checkers say about the leading cause of death in Canada?
- hedgehog 4y ago
  Yes, it was repeat messaging from the presidents on down. https://www.google.com/search?q=%22kids+don%27t+catch+covid%22 https://www.google.com/search?q=%22kids+don%27t+catch+covid%...

slindsey 4y ago

That seems to be a problem in other areas as well, such as wildfires.

rossdavidh 4y ago
Good point.
VancouverMan 4y ago
This shouldn't be surprising. The economy, forestry, and healthcare are all examples of government intervention that introduces artificial distortions that make a situation worse than it otherwise would have been had natural balances been allowed to proceed without those artificial distortions.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  They're also examples of places where a lack of government intervention can be harmful. Wildfires are a problem in part because people, left to their own devices, build in places they probably shouldn't have. (Or plant eucalyptus in California. Whoops.) Healthcare, unregulated, is where we get the term "snake oil salesman" and cocaine-based panaceas from; most of the places with more regulation of healthcare than the US like Europe have both cheaper healthcare and similar health outcomes. An entirely unregulated economy gets you something more like Somalia and Afghanistan's. etc. etc. etc.
  - PraetorianGourd 4y ago
    I would be all for cocaine-based panaceas.
- taeric 4y ago
  Any intervention system can be used as an example for why you should intervene. Just as any intervention system can be used as an example for why you should not.

boringg 4y ago

Life is a delicate balance in all things.

boplicity 4y ago

Based on my (admittedly) anectdotal evidence: there's been very little mask wearing for almost a year, and in that time a very large percentage of the people I've known have gotten various colds and/or COVID. (This summer, it seems almost everyone who hadn't had it yet, finally got it.) The big shift happened when they lifted the mask mandate for schools here in early 2022: Our kids came back with a cold every 2 weeks, for approximately 2.5 months. That was not fun. All of which is to say that it's not clear at all that we've been "storing up" a problem -- and if we have, much of it has already been let out of storage, so to speak.

proc0 4y ago
It would seem to me masks are precisely "storing up" the problem, especially with children and younger people who are not that much at risk. In retro, I guess masks and lockdowns only delayed the inevitable, which to some extent was justified, but I think as this article suggests, it has a price.
- mellavora 4y ago
  I'm not sure what you mean by "not that much at risk", the parent posted > Our kids came back with a cold every 2 weeks, for approximately 2.5 months. That was not fun. Noting also that frequent colds can lead to lifelong asthma conditions Noting further that we really don't know the long-term effects of Covid on young people (both in the more frequent case of a speedy recovery and in the less frequent "long Covid"). Masks in school, and basic good hygiene (washing hands, having the school disinfect contact surfaces such as doorknobs multiple times per day, ...) go a long way to keeping everyone safe and healthy.
  - JamesonNetworks 4y ago
    I haven’t looked at any data, but I wonder if the cold -> asthma correlation might be reversed, ie asthma as a condition leads to more vulnerability to colds
    - 4y ago

mschuster91 4y ago

> Normally, children get infected by their second birthday. Now, “you’re going to end up having kids that are three, four years of age right now who have never seen RSV”. In an ideal world, we'd vaccinate children against RSV. Acquiring immunity by suffering through an actual infection is always, always worse than acquiring it by a vaccine. About 100k children die from RSV each year! Thankfully, there are vaccines in the pipeline [1], and I seriously hope that mRNA technology will increase both the development speed and the availability of vaccines in general. [1] https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-announces-positive-top-line-data-phase-3-global https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-deta...

taxicabjesus 4y ago
taolegal 4y ago
> Acquiring immunity by suffering through an actual infection is always, always worse than acquiring it by a vaccine say that to the whoever ends up coming down with narcolepsy, thrombocytopenia, acute peri/myo-carditis, shingles reactivation, etc.
- HarryHirsch 4y ago
  We've had a lot of shingles cases the last year because of immune system damage caused by Covid. What are you even talking about?
  - taolegal 4y ago
    I had a family member come down with shingles shortly after getting boosted, hasn't been infected with covid in years. There's enough discussion about this happening after vaccination: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579250/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34579250/ "Conclusion: This study indicates that the occurrence of VZV reactivation is clinically relevant. However, our findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination is safe, and remains strongly recommended." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35931613/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35931613/ Of course there's the obligatory, robotic, throat-clearing that vaccines should still be taken even when they find evidence of a side-effect.

sp332 4y ago

RSV is more dangerous for young children. Putting off exposure for a couple of years should reduce the number of serious cases. It's not one of those things like chicken pox where, if you're going to get it, it's better to get it younger. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2022.826666/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2022.8266...

taolegal 4y ago
> Putting off exposure for a couple of years lets lock kids in solitary confinement until it's safe to leave, good plan /s
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  There's a nice big middle ground between solitary confinement and doing nothing. I'd love to see schools take a serious look at air movement and filtration.
  - taolegal 4y ago
    We didn't take a middle ground. Kids (the poorest and most disadvantaged) suffered a massive, irrecoverable learning loss under the mandates of public health experts.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      We absolutely took a middle ground. Schools could've stayed closed much longer, masks could've been required much longer, vaccines could've been made mandatory. We prioritized cleaning over ventilation, to our severe detriment. Deeming it "irrecoverable" requires a time machine; one of the most frustrating parts about dealing with child development is the impacts take decades to sort out, in sometimes surprising fashion.
      - taolegal 4y ago
        > We absolutely took a middle ground. Europe apparently operated a lot less draconian wrt schools, never really closed down & things worked out pretty well. The science was pretty clear even from early on but democrats in US said georgia reopening schools was "an exercise in human sacrifice." You don't need a middle ground for the least vulnerable age-range for covid. > Deeming it "irrecoverable" requires a time machine what? it's irrecoverable because you never get back lost time, the past is settled and kids lost out on crucial brain development windows

deegles 4y ago

I believe the increased hospitalization rates are due to is the immune system damage damage caused by Covid.

tiahura 4y ago
A reasonable theory, but as the article points out, last year, as Omicron infections increased, flu decreased. This year, Omicron down & flu up.