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Interesting question. I like the WeWork and Quibi examples. Imagine most of the Nasdaq being made of companies like that and you get an idea of 2000. 00 and the
by matwood 4y ago
Interesting question. I like the WeWork and Quibi examples. Imagine most of the Nasdaq being made of companies like that and you get an idea of 2000. 00 and then the GFC I think really hammered home business plans and path to profit in the broader market.
Crypto though I think is where we will see an 00 style collapse. Many of the companies are scams or lightly disguised gambling platforms. The technology is poorly implemented in many cases, leading to theft. There are also a large amount of drifters just taking people's money. Maybe crypto has protected the broader market by being a honeypot for all the exuberant behavior? IDK.
I think you should be careful discounting social networks. Meta, as one analyst I read said, is a cash volcano. IMO, ATT effects for Meta and Google are overblown because they have so many properties to gather data from. Ads on both platforms work and are valuable. Though they are not immune from general economic slowdowns.
Even though TikTok is private, the little that has leaked shows them doing extremely well. Twitter has been mismanaged for years. Musk is right that Twitter should be a decent business, but it remains to be seen if he can get it there.
While I'm pontificating, and since you also mentioned Netflix :) another spot I see about to implode is content spend. Look at how much Netflix, Disney, Prime, etc... have spent creating content the last 5ish years, and then look at how much they charge a family for the access. There is no way that level of spend continues. We have been living in a golden age for content with the variety and amount, and I think that is about to end. With the increase in rates and the market pullback overall, content spend is going to have to get cut.