They didn't need much more than noting Rt and experience of Wuhan, if you're thinking "IMHE!", sort of a red herring: yeah, they predicted X million of deaths,

They didn't need much more than noting Rt and experience of Wuhan, if you're thinking "IMHE!", sort of a red herring: yeah, they predicted X million of deaths, but it wasn't anymore complicated than take Rt, use in formula, and yeah we should probably see if we can eradicate this thing locally, early. Was never a global decision.