3 ms·

How far out did the Covid forecasts look, to justify global lockdowns?

jimbob45 4y ago
The fear with COVID was mutation of the disease into something more deadly and more contagious. What looks like fearmongering now was cautious behavior around mutation at the time. Conversely, Ebola isn't likely to mutate now, so we don't need that same level of caution.
- time_to_smile 4y ago
  > What looks like fearmongering now We had over 1 million deaths in the US. You travel back to 2016 and tell people we'll have a pandemic in the US, 1 million people will die, and then large groups of people will attempt to shrug that off as "nothing to get concerned about", people would find that incomprehensible. If I were to post a comment on HN in 2016 suggesting that people would shrug off 1 million deaths due to a pandemic because it doesn't align with their worldview I would have been downvoted into oblivious for holding such a laughably ridiculous and cynical opinion. Same could be said of the countless other climate related impacts that people in the very near distant past would consider horrific and impossible. The power of the "this is fine" culture to not see reality is terrifying.
  - bushbaba 4y ago
    300k Americans die each year from obesity. Yet nobody seems to view this as an urgent issue needing addressing.
    - RugnirViking 4y ago
      quite a lot of people do and have seen obesity as an urgent issue needing addressing. People at many levels of government, in both political parties, and for many years....
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  > Conversely, Ebola isn't likely to mutate now Can you explain why?
refulgentis 4y ago
They didn't need much more than noting Rt and experience of Wuhan, if you're thinking "IMHE!", sort of a red herring: yeah, they predicted X million of deaths, but it wasn't anymore complicated than take Rt, use in formula, and yeah we should probably see if we can eradicate this thing locally, early. Was never a global decision.
beebmam 4y ago
Are you claiming that the lockdowns that happened in the first half of 2020 had zero effect on SARS-CoV-2 infections?
- Jerrrry 4y ago
  They did not. Florida vs California. read up.
  - snowwrestler 4y ago
    In case anyone would like to actually read up on the impact of restrictions: States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks (Nov 18, 2020) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-stat...
    - mwint 4y ago
      I mean... > Nov 18, 2020 Looks at deaths per capita, from Jan 2020 to today. The position of peaks is barely relevant compared to their cumulative impact.
- hammock 4y ago
  I'm literally asking a question, since it is news to me that "no professional infectious disease modeler will forecast out more than a few weeks." Do I sense attitude? If so, why?
thedorkknight 4y ago
That's not quite the right way of phrasing that question. Models are made with and without interventions taken into account, and the lockdowns were a reaction to models showing reduced deaths and hospital strain if lockdown measures were in place. I'm not sure what that guy is talking about. But if you're actually interested, you should go and read the papers used for modeling yourself, since the odds of finding a rando on hacker news who is an actual epidemiologists is zilch. The ones who were public communicators that I followed over COVID were the podcast "This Week in Virology" which is just about the best resource you're going to find, and the blog "your local epidemiologist", who is also fantastic

The fear with COVID was mutation of the disease into something more deadly and more contagious. What looks like fearmongering now was cautious behavior around mutation at the time. Conversely, Ebola isn't likely to mutate now, so we don't need that same level of caution.

time_to_smile 4y ago
> What looks like fearmongering now We had over 1 million deaths in the US. You travel back to 2016 and tell people we'll have a pandemic in the US, 1 million people will die, and then large groups of people will attempt to shrug that off as "nothing to get concerned about", people would find that incomprehensible. If I were to post a comment on HN in 2016 suggesting that people would shrug off 1 million deaths due to a pandemic because it doesn't align with their worldview I would have been downvoted into oblivious for holding such a laughably ridiculous and cynical opinion. Same could be said of the countless other climate related impacts that people in the very near distant past would consider horrific and impossible. The power of the "this is fine" culture to not see reality is terrifying.
- bushbaba 4y ago
  300k Americans die each year from obesity. Yet nobody seems to view this as an urgent issue needing addressing.
  - RugnirViking 4y ago
    quite a lot of people do and have seen obesity as an urgent issue needing addressing. People at many levels of government, in both political parties, and for many years....
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
> Conversely, Ebola isn't likely to mutate now Can you explain why?

refulgentis 4y ago

They didn't need much more than noting Rt and experience of Wuhan, if you're thinking "IMHE!", sort of a red herring: yeah, they predicted X million of deaths, but it wasn't anymore complicated than take Rt, use in formula, and yeah we should probably see if we can eradicate this thing locally, early. Was never a global decision.

beebmam 4y ago

Are you claiming that the lockdowns that happened in the first half of 2020 had zero effect on SARS-CoV-2 infections?

Jerrrry 4y ago
They did not. Florida vs California. read up.
- snowwrestler 4y ago
  In case anyone would like to actually read up on the impact of restrictions: States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks (Nov 18, 2020) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-stat...
  - mwint 4y ago
    I mean... > Nov 18, 2020 Looks at deaths per capita, from Jan 2020 to today. The position of peaks is barely relevant compared to their cumulative impact.
hammock 4y ago
I'm literally asking a question, since it is news to me that "no professional infectious disease modeler will forecast out more than a few weeks." Do I sense attitude? If so, why?

thedorkknight 4y ago

That's not quite the right way of phrasing that question. Models are made with and without interventions taken into account, and the lockdowns were a reaction to models showing reduced deaths and hospital strain if lockdown measures were in place. I'm not sure what that guy is talking about. But if you're actually interested, you should go and read the papers used for modeling yourself, since the odds of finding a rando on hacker news who is an actual epidemiologists is zilch. The ones who were public communicators that I followed over COVID were the podcast "This Week in Virology" which is just about the best resource you're going to find, and the blog "your local epidemiologist", who is also fantastic