4 ms·

"We’re going to look back at a generation of successful founders and VCs with the realization that all of their talent was in creating a company during the bull

"We’re going to look back at a generation of successful founders and VCs with the realization that all of their talent was in creating a company during the bull market." - random tweet I came across that's very relevant here.

billjings 4y ago
Dare Obasanjo: https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life/status/1589867071693017088 https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life/status/1589867071693017088
- 3001 4y ago
  Total unrelated but son of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olusegun_Obasanjo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olusegun_Obasanjo. Numero uno looter of Africa
  - MaxHoppersGhost 4y ago
    Wow. I like how his son’s Twitter profile talks about inclusivity. Very brave.
  - melvinmelih 4y ago
    He very cleverly took his name out of his dad's wikipedia entry. It's still there in older versions: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Olusegun_Obasanjo&oldid=15385739 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Olusegun_Obasanjo...
  - bolasanibk 4y ago
    Not to be confused with the talented soccer player Sam Obisanya. https://ted-lasso.fandom.com/wiki/Sam_Obisanya#Dubai_Air_and_The_Return_of_Jamie_Tartt https://ted-lasso.fandom.com/wiki/Sam_Obisanya#Dubai_Air_and...
  - googlryas 4y ago
    Why even reference it then? We have understood that sins of the father are not the sins of the child since at least the book of exodus(~500BC). If that tweeter has done something wrong in his life, then talk about it. But he didn't really have a choice on who birthed him. From the wiki page: > Some of his children were resentful that he gave them no special privileges and treated their mothers poorly.
    - billjings 4y ago
      I went to Georgia Tech with Dare. It's a great school, but it's not exactly the kind of place you send your scions of privilege.
      - 3001 4y ago
        Thats funny, sure going to Gtech for an American as an undergrad doesn't scream privilege but seeing that today the total cost of going to such school will run you around 400k as an international student, while millions of people graduate high school in Nigeria and have to go through the hunger games of Jamb for extremely limited spots due to the lack of investment in education lead by his dad and cohorts tells a different tale. Someone like him not born to such father in Nigeria, will likely be an high school teacher getting paid $100 every 4 months.
        googlryas 4y ago
        Are you just assuming his dad paid for his school? Do you know if he received any scholarships? Do you know the finances of his mother/mother's side of the family?
        stefan_ 4y ago
        A scholarship? People from Nigeria can't even get a visa into the US.
        Sebguer 4y ago
  - niyikiza 4y ago
    Wow! That's next level Ad Hominem & Genetic fallacies
httpz 4y ago
Majority of early startups still don't make it past the valley of death even during a bull market. This is like saying every great sailor happened to sail when the wind was blowing in the right direction.
chubot 4y ago
There was an entire book about this that became famous during the 2008 financial crisis: Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/1400067936/ref=asc_df_1400067936/ https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Ince... It's literally about how options traders and the like can be lucky for 10 or 20 years, but they are actually idiots who destroy the economy. They think they are skilled, and others think they are skilled, but it's luck. You can also call it "anti-luck" because their short-term actions can cause the long-term crisis. This book was a #1 best seller, as were most of Taleb's books, but for some reason whenever I mention it to anybody, I get blank stares. I think it's just really hard for people to understand phenomena that occur at time scales of say more than a decade. (BTW Another good book about recurring economic cycles is Dalio's 2022 The Changing World Order. All of this stuff has happened before. This is separate from crypto, and relates to the global economic environment.)
- tanseydavid 4y ago
  This book was my introduction to Taleb and I loved it. I recommend it frequently.
- lordnacho 4y ago
  > whenever I mention it to anybody, I get blank stares. Maybe it's the circles you move in. In finance nobody hasn't heard of it. Well deserved reputation too, it really changed how I saw things. It's weird because even as someone who studied probability and stats, I hadn't thought it would change my entire worldview.
- niyikiza 4y ago
  Great book. It was my introduction to Taleb as well It profoundly shaped how I interpret markets and approach my own investments.
- dibt 4y ago
  >It's literally about how options traders and the like can be lucky for 10 or 20 years I don't see how doing anything successfully (in this case, gaining profit?) for 20 years can be described as "luck." Surviving/being successful that long trading isn't a fluke. I haven't read the book, but I know that Talib talks about 'tail risk' a lot and 'risk of ruin'. Which are very different than what you describe. If my bet size is only limited to 2%, I would be happy to be "lucky" for 20 years!
jsemrau 4y ago
This is literally the definition of "beta" in equities trading. There is nothing bad with riding a good bull run. Ponzenomics is the issue here (imho) where we have to come to realize that there is no liquidity in many crypto currencies because there is not need to actually trade them. And projects that provide real yield (i.e., use an existing currency as their main currency of operations) fail to get traction because they don't provide the Ponzenomics scheme to their users.
wslh 4y ago
"We’re going to look back at a generation of successful founders and VCs with the realization that all of their talent was in creating a company during the bull market.". I would add: "and tweeting all day".

billjings 4y ago

Dare Obasanjo: https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life/status/1589867071693017088 https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life/status/1589867071693017088

3001 4y ago
Total unrelated but son of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olusegun_Obasanjo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olusegun_Obasanjo. Numero uno looter of Africa
- MaxHoppersGhost 4y ago
  Wow. I like how his son’s Twitter profile talks about inclusivity. Very brave.
- melvinmelih 4y ago
  He very cleverly took his name out of his dad's wikipedia entry. It's still there in older versions: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Olusegun_Obasanjo&oldid=15385739 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Olusegun_Obasanjo...
- bolasanibk 4y ago
  Not to be confused with the talented soccer player Sam Obisanya. https://ted-lasso.fandom.com/wiki/Sam_Obisanya#Dubai_Air_and_The_Return_of_Jamie_Tartt https://ted-lasso.fandom.com/wiki/Sam_Obisanya#Dubai_Air_and...
- googlryas 4y ago
  Why even reference it then? We have understood that sins of the father are not the sins of the child since at least the book of exodus(~500BC). If that tweeter has done something wrong in his life, then talk about it. But he didn't really have a choice on who birthed him. From the wiki page: > Some of his children were resentful that he gave them no special privileges and treated their mothers poorly.
  - billjings 4y ago
    I went to Georgia Tech with Dare. It's a great school, but it's not exactly the kind of place you send your scions of privilege.
    - 3001 4y ago
      Thats funny, sure going to Gtech for an American as an undergrad doesn't scream privilege but seeing that today the total cost of going to such school will run you around 400k as an international student, while millions of people graduate high school in Nigeria and have to go through the hunger games of Jamb for extremely limited spots due to the lack of investment in education lead by his dad and cohorts tells a different tale. Someone like him not born to such father in Nigeria, will likely be an high school teacher getting paid $100 every 4 months.
      - googlryas 4y ago
        Are you just assuming his dad paid for his school? Do you know if he received any scholarships? Do you know the finances of his mother/mother's side of the family?
        stefan_ 4y ago
        A scholarship? People from Nigeria can't even get a visa into the US.
        Sebguer 4y ago
- niyikiza 4y ago
  Wow! That's next level Ad Hominem & Genetic fallacies

httpz 4y ago

Majority of early startups still don't make it past the valley of death even during a bull market. This is like saying every great sailor happened to sail when the wind was blowing in the right direction.

chubot 4y ago

There was an entire book about this that became famous during the 2008 financial crisis: Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/1400067936/ref=asc_df_1400067936/ https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Ince... It's literally about how options traders and the like can be lucky for 10 or 20 years, but they are actually idiots who destroy the economy. They think they are skilled, and others think they are skilled, but it's luck. You can also call it "anti-luck" because their short-term actions can cause the long-term crisis. This book was a #1 best seller, as were most of Taleb's books, but for some reason whenever I mention it to anybody, I get blank stares. I think it's just really hard for people to understand phenomena that occur at time scales of say more than a decade. (BTW Another good book about recurring economic cycles is Dalio's 2022 The Changing World Order. All of this stuff has happened before. This is separate from crypto, and relates to the global economic environment.)

tanseydavid 4y ago
This book was my introduction to Taleb and I loved it. I recommend it frequently.
lordnacho 4y ago
> whenever I mention it to anybody, I get blank stares. Maybe it's the circles you move in. In finance nobody hasn't heard of it. Well deserved reputation too, it really changed how I saw things. It's weird because even as someone who studied probability and stats, I hadn't thought it would change my entire worldview.
niyikiza 4y ago
Great book. It was my introduction to Taleb as well It profoundly shaped how I interpret markets and approach my own investments.
dibt 4y ago
>It's literally about how options traders and the like can be lucky for 10 or 20 years I don't see how doing anything successfully (in this case, gaining profit?) for 20 years can be described as "luck." Surviving/being successful that long trading isn't a fluke. I haven't read the book, but I know that Talib talks about 'tail risk' a lot and 'risk of ruin'. Which are very different than what you describe. If my bet size is only limited to 2%, I would be happy to be "lucky" for 20 years!

jsemrau 4y ago

This is literally the definition of "beta" in equities trading. There is nothing bad with riding a good bull run. Ponzenomics is the issue here (imho) where we have to come to realize that there is no liquidity in many crypto currencies because there is not need to actually trade them. And projects that provide real yield (i.e., use an existing currency as their main currency of operations) fail to get traction because they don't provide the Ponzenomics scheme to their users.

wslh 4y ago

"We’re going to look back at a generation of successful founders and VCs with the realization that all of their talent was in creating a company during the bull market.". I would add: "and tweeting all day".