8 ms·

The headline is scary but #1 Ebola isn't airborne and #2 it's super deadly which means it kills before it really has a chance to spread widely.

dwheeler 4y ago
Right. Ebola spreads via contact with infected blood or body fluids. That's terrible for those infected, and we should definitely take steps to counter its spread. But that's not at all the same level of risk as airborne spreading.
lucioperca 4y ago
It spread through multiple countries till it was contained at one outbreak with thousands of dead.
pelorat 4y ago
And the only reason it spreads is due to lack of education.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- kramerger 4y ago
  Is there a particular program or degree that makes me immune? Because multiple members of Doctors Without Borders died in the previous outbreak.
  - dopidopHN 4y ago
    They should have had worked harder in schools. I thought the message was out by this point
  - kspacewalk2 4y ago
    Basically, having universal or near-universal access to modern sanitation is the "program". If you're not in a community that has this, being a member of Doctors Without Borders is insufficient as a guard against getting infected. Conversely, having running water and flush toilets as the norm makes it far less likely for dieases like ebola to spread even among non-members of Doctors Without Borders. So, while "lack of education" is not the right diagnosis here, lack of basic amenities certainly is.
  - wkearney99 4y ago
    That's entirely disingenuous, and you know it. There's a huge difference between the uneducated public in the developing world (or, clearly, everywhere really) and those that choose to enter into those challenging conditions to try and help people.
throwaway920102 4y ago
I mean it could evolve to be airborne in the wild or in a research lab doing intentional gain of function research (a practice for which funding was temporarily halted by Obama) and hybridization much like has been done at BSL-4 facilities worldwide unchecked including by EcoHealth alliance with bat coronaviruses via US funding at the WIV prior to the Covid outbreak in Wuhan. https://www.science.org/content/article/nih-says-grantee-failed-report-experiment-wuhan-created-bat-virus-made-mice-sicker https://www.science.org/content/article/nih-says-grantee-fai... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01209-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01209-w https://theintercept.com/2021/09/09/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research/ https://theintercept.com/2021/09/09/covid-origins-gain-of-fu... But it's probably fine and we probably shouldn't worry about the possibility of a global pandemic or of mutation of Ebola into a more transmissible form.
- benreesman 4y ago
  Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.
  - mikeyouse 4y ago
    It's really not mainstream amongst virologists.. as has been demonstrated by repeatedly debunking the latest gish gallop papers, there's literally zero evidence for lab manipulation of the sars cov2 virus. It's vaguely plausible that the virus could have been captured in the wild and then leaked, but even that seems extremely unlikely given the two separate market lineages and timeline of the earliest cases. Stricter control of GoF makes a lot of sense but the reason everyone was studying coronavirus pandemics in the first place is because we'd had several near misses and everyone in the virology community knew it was only a matter of time before the right circumstances allowed a spillover to do exactly what Covid19 did.
    - benreesman 4y ago
      I think there is a lot more controversy than you’re implying, even among serious scientists, but an HN comment thread is probably not the right place to litigate a complex issue that is also a partisan political football. I’ll leave it at this: I would encourage everyone to do their own research on this and try to look past the elephant in the room of the politics angle.
Silverback_VII 4y ago
I don’t know if you have read some of the tweets but it seems that ebola can remain dormant in some of the recovered individuals and then be transmitted(sexually in this case) years latter.
- dendrite9 4y ago
  https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/03/ebola-may-have-lurked-in-someone-for-5-6-years-before-sparking-new-outbreak/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/03/ebola-may-have-lurke... About a 2021 outbreak: "The Ebola virus is known to persist in some survivors, particularly in places where it can lay low from the immune system, such as the testicles or eyeballs. A 2016 study reported resurgence of the virus in a survivor’s seminal fluid more than 500 days after the initial infection. Still, the more than five-year span was “shocking” to many virologists and public health experts. And it raises a variety of concerns for the many survivors of past outbreaks, some of whom may have had mild cases of Ebola without realizing it. In particular, many people known to have survived Ebola face stigmatization, and the possibility of years-long persistence is likely to amplify that problem."
bergenty 4y ago
I mean it’s not all that hard for it to become airborne. If that happens it’s doesn’t kill fast enough to not spread like crazy.
- SoftTalker 4y ago
  Isn't it? Some viruses are airborne, and some are not. I'm not aware that it's "not all that hard" for one type of virus to become the other, but I'm no expert. As far as I have heard, ebola outbreaks are almost exclusively in poor third world areas with generally bad sanitation and cultural practices (such as washing the recently deceased body) that contribute to transmission by contact with infected bodily fluids.
giantg2 4y ago
" it's super deadly which means it kills before it really has a chance to spread widely." I generally agree. I believe there is some lag time before dropping dead. Fast air travel seems like a good way for this to spread over a wide range. If I remember correctly, CDC was involved in some Ebola cases about 10 years or so ago due to travellers. The manpower required for the precautions to prevent US spread for just 2-4 infected people was massive. I would guess we would be overwhelmed and it would start spreading here if the numbers were in the dozens. I'm not saying that would be likely this time, but the likelihood would go up if there was a less deadly mutation. Operating on previously true beliefs is likely to cause the most damage.

dwheeler 4y ago

Right. Ebola spreads via contact with infected blood or body fluids. That's terrible for those infected, and we should definitely take steps to counter its spread. But that's not at all the same level of risk as airborne spreading.

lucioperca 4y ago

It spread through multiple countries till it was contained at one outbreak with thousands of dead.

pelorat 4y ago

And the only reason it spreads is due to lack of education.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
kramerger 4y ago
Is there a particular program or degree that makes me immune? Because multiple members of Doctors Without Borders died in the previous outbreak.
- dopidopHN 4y ago
  They should have had worked harder in schools. I thought the message was out by this point
- kspacewalk2 4y ago
  Basically, having universal or near-universal access to modern sanitation is the "program". If you're not in a community that has this, being a member of Doctors Without Borders is insufficient as a guard against getting infected. Conversely, having running water and flush toilets as the norm makes it far less likely for dieases like ebola to spread even among non-members of Doctors Without Borders. So, while "lack of education" is not the right diagnosis here, lack of basic amenities certainly is.
- wkearney99 4y ago
  That's entirely disingenuous, and you know it. There's a huge difference between the uneducated public in the developing world (or, clearly, everywhere really) and those that choose to enter into those challenging conditions to try and help people.

throwaway920102 4y ago

I mean it could evolve to be airborne in the wild or in a research lab doing intentional gain of function research (a practice for which funding was temporarily halted by Obama) and hybridization much like has been done at BSL-4 facilities worldwide unchecked including by EcoHealth alliance with bat coronaviruses via US funding at the WIV prior to the Covid outbreak in Wuhan. https://www.science.org/content/article/nih-says-grantee-failed-report-experiment-wuhan-created-bat-virus-made-mice-sicker https://www.science.org/content/article/nih-says-grantee-fai... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01209-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01209-w https://theintercept.com/2021/09/09/covid-origins-gain-of-function-research/ https://theintercept.com/2021/09/09/covid-origins-gain-of-fu... But it's probably fine and we probably shouldn't worry about the possibility of a global pandemic or of mutation of Ebola into a more transmissible form.

benreesman 4y ago
Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.
- mikeyouse 4y ago
  It's really not mainstream amongst virologists.. as has been demonstrated by repeatedly debunking the latest gish gallop papers, there's literally zero evidence for lab manipulation of the sars cov2 virus. It's vaguely plausible that the virus could have been captured in the wild and then leaked, but even that seems extremely unlikely given the two separate market lineages and timeline of the earliest cases. Stricter control of GoF makes a lot of sense but the reason everyone was studying coronavirus pandemics in the first place is because we'd had several near misses and everyone in the virology community knew it was only a matter of time before the right circumstances allowed a spillover to do exactly what Covid19 did.
  - benreesman 4y ago
    I think there is a lot more controversy than you’re implying, even among serious scientists, but an HN comment thread is probably not the right place to litigate a complex issue that is also a partisan political football. I’ll leave it at this: I would encourage everyone to do their own research on this and try to look past the elephant in the room of the politics angle.

Silverback_VII 4y ago

I don’t know if you have read some of the tweets but it seems that ebola can remain dormant in some of the recovered individuals and then be transmitted(sexually in this case) years latter.

dendrite9 4y ago
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/03/ebola-may-have-lurked-in-someone-for-5-6-years-before-sparking-new-outbreak/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/03/ebola-may-have-lurke... About a 2021 outbreak: "The Ebola virus is known to persist in some survivors, particularly in places where it can lay low from the immune system, such as the testicles or eyeballs. A 2016 study reported resurgence of the virus in a survivor’s seminal fluid more than 500 days after the initial infection. Still, the more than five-year span was “shocking” to many virologists and public health experts. And it raises a variety of concerns for the many survivors of past outbreaks, some of whom may have had mild cases of Ebola without realizing it. In particular, many people known to have survived Ebola face stigmatization, and the possibility of years-long persistence is likely to amplify that problem."

bergenty 4y ago

I mean it’s not all that hard for it to become airborne. If that happens it’s doesn’t kill fast enough to not spread like crazy.

SoftTalker 4y ago
Isn't it? Some viruses are airborne, and some are not. I'm not aware that it's "not all that hard" for one type of virus to become the other, but I'm no expert. As far as I have heard, ebola outbreaks are almost exclusively in poor third world areas with generally bad sanitation and cultural practices (such as washing the recently deceased body) that contribute to transmission by contact with infected bodily fluids.

giantg2 4y ago

" it's super deadly which means it kills before it really has a chance to spread widely." I generally agree. I believe there is some lag time before dropping dead. Fast air travel seems like a good way for this to spread over a wide range. If I remember correctly, CDC was involved in some Ebola cases about 10 years or so ago due to travellers. The manpower required for the precautions to prevent US spread for just 2-4 infected people was massive. I would guess we would be overwhelmed and it would start spreading here if the numbers were in the dozens. I'm not saying that would be likely this time, but the likelihood would go up if there was a less deadly mutation. Operating on previously true beliefs is likely to cause the most damage.