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I also think there is a somewhat hyperbolic anti-China sentiment in the commentary on all of this. Plus a perhaps frustration at the US Space authorities on the

I also think there is a somewhat hyperbolic anti-China sentiment in the commentary on all of this. Plus a perhaps frustration at the US Space authorities on the lack of communication from their Chinese counterpart, something of course they themselves are entirely to blame for. Anyway; the Chinese have done a few of these "uncontrolled reentries" now. All crashing into the ocean; so they are either very lucky or it is not so uncontrolled after all.

causality0 4y ago
Neither. There just isn't that big a fraction of the earth's surface that's inhabited. You should regard this similarly to someone firing a gun into the air.
- wlll 4y ago
  If you fired a gun into the air in the UK I'm pretty sure that a) You'd get in pretty serious trouble for it by itself and b) if you killed or injured someone that trouble would be significantly multiplied to the extent you'd end up in prison. I think it would be a manslaughter charge.
  - lsllc 4y ago
    In most areas of the US recklessly discharging a firearm into the air would also get you in serious trouble (even in rural areas) along with a (lesser) murder charge if you killed someone. FWIW, according to a study published by the National Library of Medicine, "celebratory gunfire" accounts for 4.6% of all stray bullet-related deaths and injuries: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22743389/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22743389/
  - causality0 4y ago
    Right. Just as with the space debris, it should be illegal and prosecuted but it's quite unlikely to actually kill someone when only performed a few times. It's the habit you have to prevent.
throwaway4good 4y ago
Chances of not hitting land after n completely random reentriees is (71%)^n. That drops fairly fast.
- jsjohnst 4y ago
  You’re down into single digit percentage by the time n hits 7 in that case. What are we at, 4th re-entry? So 25% chance it lands in water given your formula. Given Chinese superstitions around the number 4, let’s hope this one has a safe and wet splashdown.
  - gerad 4y ago
    That’s not how the stats work. There’s a 71% chance it lands in water this time (and every time). If you flip heads 3 times in a row, it doesn’t mean you’re more likely to flip tails next time.
    - anomaloustho 4y ago
      My understanding is that this is more of the equivalent of making sure you land on heads all 3 times. In that case it’s a 1/8th on 3 coin flips, no?
      - jsjohnst 4y ago
        > My understanding is that this is more of the equivalent of making sure you land on heads all 3 times Yep!
    - tehbeard 4y ago
      That's a five year-olds uninformed take because you assume it could land anywhere on earth, hence 71% water.... Orbital mechanics does not work that way (except for a polar orbit). It's covering a particular band of the surface that it could land on if uncontrolled.
k_paleologos 4y ago
Reports suggest that they require only 3 launches in this configuration LM5B where the core stage falls back, for the construction of their station. They might have made the assumption that chances of damage due to debris is very low considering that only 3 launches are to happen with this configuration. In case even if there is damage on the ground, there are treaties that govern the liabilities in case. It would be interesting to know why they technically chose this particular way of doing it, but the discussion seems too hyperbolic for that.
- sp332 4y ago
  Now that the design has been proved out, they're not going to stop doing it.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- vasco 4y ago
  > In case even if there is damage on the ground, there are treaties that govern the liabilities in case. If it fell on your house with you sleeping inside I'm sure the liabilities treaties would make your family be totally ok with it.
  - FpUser 4y ago
    When governments, including your own make these kinds of decisions they do not give a flying fuck about your particular family. They only car if it will cost them election, loosing giant lawsuit etc.
    - justinclift 4y ago
      Kind of wonder how it'd go, if the rocket accidentally took out the head of a mafia family or some equally dangerous group. ;)
signatoremo 4y ago
Regardless of the sentiments of the criticism, the fact is it’s irresponsible on the China part. You seem to downplay that fact. If you want to be balanced that’s the first thing you’d need to acknowledge. And no, it is uncontrolled. No questions about it. No matter how small the risk, countries have to make plan, allocate resources, keeping track of the rocket’s path, in case it does happen. They can’t just pray. Spain briefly closed part of their airspace, delaying 300 flights. Who is responsible for that? https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spain-briefly-closes-part-airspace-chinese-rocket-debris-flies-over-2022-11-04/I’m https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spain-briefly-clos...
mozman 4y ago
Is there anything wrong with being anti PRC?
- fnordpiglet 4y ago
  PRC != China or Chinese
philwelch 4y ago
One of them hit Côte d’Ivoire.
- xtian 4y ago
  Do you have a link to an official investigation/report on this?
  - philwelch 4y ago
    I don’t have a primary source handy but there’s tons of news reports. The Côte d’Ivoire crash was in May 2020.
    - xtian 4y ago
      I’ve looked at the news reports and as far as I’ve seen they only reference social media posts which seem to be inconclusive.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
tannedNerd 4y ago
That is just a bold faced lie that 2 seconds of googling would prove you wrong. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/china-keeps-dropping-toxic-rocket-parts-on-its-villages/amp/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/china-keeps-dropping... https://www.newsweek.com/photos-show-rocket-debris-india-chinese-rocket-chang-zheng-3b-1695217?amp=1 https://www.newsweek.com/photos-show-rocket-debris-india-chi... Anyway; I don’t know if you are an Astro turfing troll or just that brainwashed.

causality0 4y ago

Neither. There just isn't that big a fraction of the earth's surface that's inhabited. You should regard this similarly to someone firing a gun into the air.

wlll 4y ago
If you fired a gun into the air in the UK I'm pretty sure that a) You'd get in pretty serious trouble for it by itself and b) if you killed or injured someone that trouble would be significantly multiplied to the extent you'd end up in prison. I think it would be a manslaughter charge.
- lsllc 4y ago
  In most areas of the US recklessly discharging a firearm into the air would also get you in serious trouble (even in rural areas) along with a (lesser) murder charge if you killed someone. FWIW, according to a study published by the National Library of Medicine, "celebratory gunfire" accounts for 4.6% of all stray bullet-related deaths and injuries: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22743389/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22743389/
- causality0 4y ago
  Right. Just as with the space debris, it should be illegal and prosecuted but it's quite unlikely to actually kill someone when only performed a few times. It's the habit you have to prevent.

throwaway4good 4y ago

Chances of not hitting land after n completely random reentriees is (71%)^n. That drops fairly fast.

jsjohnst 4y ago
You’re down into single digit percentage by the time n hits 7 in that case. What are we at, 4th re-entry? So 25% chance it lands in water given your formula. Given Chinese superstitions around the number 4, let’s hope this one has a safe and wet splashdown.
- gerad 4y ago
  That’s not how the stats work. There’s a 71% chance it lands in water this time (and every time). If you flip heads 3 times in a row, it doesn’t mean you’re more likely to flip tails next time.
  - anomaloustho 4y ago
    My understanding is that this is more of the equivalent of making sure you land on heads all 3 times. In that case it’s a 1/8th on 3 coin flips, no?
    - jsjohnst 4y ago
      > My understanding is that this is more of the equivalent of making sure you land on heads all 3 times Yep!
  - tehbeard 4y ago
    That's a five year-olds uninformed take because you assume it could land anywhere on earth, hence 71% water.... Orbital mechanics does not work that way (except for a polar orbit). It's covering a particular band of the surface that it could land on if uncontrolled.

k_paleologos 4y ago

Reports suggest that they require only 3 launches in this configuration LM5B where the core stage falls back, for the construction of their station. They might have made the assumption that chances of damage due to debris is very low considering that only 3 launches are to happen with this configuration. In case even if there is damage on the ground, there are treaties that govern the liabilities in case. It would be interesting to know why they technically chose this particular way of doing it, but the discussion seems too hyperbolic for that.

sp332 4y ago
Now that the design has been proved out, they're not going to stop doing it.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
vasco 4y ago
> In case even if there is damage on the ground, there are treaties that govern the liabilities in case. If it fell on your house with you sleeping inside I'm sure the liabilities treaties would make your family be totally ok with it.
- FpUser 4y ago
  When governments, including your own make these kinds of decisions they do not give a flying fuck about your particular family. They only car if it will cost them election, loosing giant lawsuit etc.
  - justinclift 4y ago
    Kind of wonder how it'd go, if the rocket accidentally took out the head of a mafia family or some equally dangerous group. ;)

signatoremo 4y ago

Regardless of the sentiments of the criticism, the fact is it’s irresponsible on the China part. You seem to downplay that fact. If you want to be balanced that’s the first thing you’d need to acknowledge. And no, it is uncontrolled. No questions about it. No matter how small the risk, countries have to make plan, allocate resources, keeping track of the rocket’s path, in case it does happen. They can’t just pray. Spain briefly closed part of their airspace, delaying 300 flights. Who is responsible for that? https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spain-briefly-closes-part-airspace-chinese-rocket-debris-flies-over-2022-11-04/I’m https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/spain-briefly-clos...

mozman 4y ago

Is there anything wrong with being anti PRC?

fnordpiglet 4y ago
PRC != China or Chinese

philwelch 4y ago

One of them hit Côte d’Ivoire.

xtian 4y ago
Do you have a link to an official investigation/report on this?
- philwelch 4y ago
  I don’t have a primary source handy but there’s tons of news reports. The Côte d’Ivoire crash was in May 2020.
  - xtian 4y ago
    I’ve looked at the news reports and as far as I’ve seen they only reference social media posts which seem to be inconclusive.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]

tannedNerd 4y ago

That is just a bold faced lie that 2 seconds of googling would prove you wrong. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/china-keeps-dropping-toxic-rocket-parts-on-its-villages/amp/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/china-keeps-dropping... https://www.newsweek.com/photos-show-rocket-debris-india-chinese-rocket-chang-zheng-3b-1695217?amp=1 https://www.newsweek.com/photos-show-rocket-debris-india-chi... Anyway; I don’t know if you are an Astro turfing troll or just that brainwashed.