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Coal is cheaper than crating solar panels and storage of electricity for them. Wind has other issues. There is no silver bullet here.

by krzyk 4y ago

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
Coal is not cheaper for them. And hasnt been for well over a decade. https://www.csiro.au/-/media/News-releases/2022/GenCost-2022/GenCost2021-22Final_20220708.pdf https://www.csiro.au/-/media/News-releases/2022/GenCost-2022... They just had a government that wanted to funnel money to their backers in coal industry.
- thrown_22 4y ago
  So how much can I buy solar power for at midnight? Because coal is the same price at noon and now. That solar is cheaper at noon doesn't mean much. It's a bit like saying that coal is free underground.
  - DFHippie 4y ago
    Those are different goalposts.
    - thrown_22 4y ago
      You're right. We can just turn off society between sunset and sunrise. Who needs things like refrigeration and life support on all the time anyway?
      - DFHippie 4y ago
        Let me translate my post: You changed the topic.
        thrown_22 4y ago
        Let me explain my point: power is not energy and energy is not power. Renewable power is cheap in the same way someone whose head is dipped in liquid nitrogen and whose feet are in molten lead in over all pretty comfortable.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    The chart Figure 2-1 Comparison of current cost estimates with previous work also has wind power, which is also cheaper than coal, and has been for longer than solar has. Plus, Australia has hydro, which can be varied to fill the gaps. > Greater confidence in role of wind and solar PV: GenCost previously included a Diverse technology scenario which explored the case where deployment of variable renewables was more limited and other technologies played a larger role. Stakeholder feedback received during AEMO’s 2020-21 Australian scenario development process found that it was unlikely that alternative technologies will be able to compete in a significant way with renewables. This reflects relatively uncompetitive gas prices, a lack of confidence in the future cost competitiveness of CCS technologies and abundant low-cost renewable resources. Their 2030 forcasts also include costs for grid integration for different percentages of variable renewable.
  - js8 4y ago
    > So how much can I buy solar power for at midnight? That's a bit like saying that there is no point in growing crops in Europe, because of the winter.
    - thrown_22 4y ago
      We can store grain for a year. How long can we store electricity for 15 minutes in most grids with a dollars for every five minutes further.
      - js8 4y ago
        It's simply not true we cannot store energy. We can produce hydrogen, methane, methanol, ethanol, biomass, steel, aluminum, cement, sillicon.. These are all energy intense processes that can help store energy. In fact, when it comes to food production (which is really just a form of energy), there are 3 major strategies how we deal with winter: storage (e.g. granary), shifting production (e.g. eating a pig you raised during the year), and trade (e.g. buying oranges from a tropical country). We can apply all these to electricity as well.
        thrown_22 4y ago
        >It's simply not true we cannot store energy. Which grid can store enough energy to run for a week if all renewables are offline? Hint: there aren't any.
        Gibbon1 4y ago
        Show me a week in the last two years when California's renewables didn't produce any power https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html
        js8 4y ago
        This is partly because massive energy storage (on the order of weeks) isn't really needed until you hit around 75% intermittent renewables (wind and solar), which is not yet the case anywhere in the world. But the technology does exist, and it's gonna be deployed eventually.
  - Schroedingersat 4y ago
    About $70/MWh and falling. https://helioscsp.com/the-cost-of-concentrated-solar-power-fell-by-47-between-2010-and-2019/ https://helioscsp.com/the-cost-of-concentrated-solar-power-f...
- Aunche 4y ago
  Solar has a much higher upfront cost than coal, so it's much easier to finance a coal plant than solar one. That said, this is a better excuse for poorer, developing countries than Australia.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    Yes, the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) explains why it made financial sense to roll out solar PV in northern European countries before many sunnier areas. But as you say, Australia has no such excuse, having both the geography and the cost of capital to be a world leader in this, way beyond what they are now, which is okay but could have been much, much better. Also points to an easy way to provide assistance to any country that is trapped into this financial dead-end.
FBISurveillance 4y ago
There is, nuclear fission now _and_ invest into nuclear fusion. Best time to invest heavily in fusion was 20 years ago, second best time is now.
- evilos 4y ago
  IMO fission is already plenty for our current/near-term energy needs. We should definitely continue the pace on fusion but it's not strictly necessary. We should prioritize deploying proven technology ASAP.
- pencilguin 4y ago
  There will be no civil fusion power, as it would cost >10x as much as fission, and fission is not now competitive, and gets less so with each passing day. Each dollar diverted to fusion or fission from build-out of wind and solar brings climate catastrophe nearer.
evilos 4y ago
France decarbonized (up to 90% ish) their electricity generation in the span of 10 years, back in 1985. Unfortunately they've been sabotaging their nuclear power plants for years now, in favor of renewable energy.
- AirStreamer27 4y ago
  Genius decision making well done France
- sveme 4y ago
  Sabotaging? In what way is a drop in river water levels during a summer drought and maintenance issues a kind of sabotage?
  - PaywallBuster 4y ago
    some of the recent issues were due to lack of maintenance or delayed maintenance during covid
  - evilos 4y ago
    Essentially these plants are forced to be unprofitable via energy laws. For example, the nuclear plants are forced to sell their energy to energy traders at unprofitable low rates but those traders are never required to buy the energy and if the price of energy drops below this rate (AFTER it was bought) then the traders can just "return" the energy and the operators have to eat it. This happened during covid when energy prices collapsed due to lack of demand. These middlemen profit off of cheap nuclear energy instead of rate payers. In addition, the nuclear plants must pay a 23 euro per MWh tax that subsidizes the operation of renewable energy. Since the plants are forced to sell their energy below cost and subsidize renewable generation, they are not profitable and aren't given the proper funds to maintain/improve these plants. So then these plants look bad/expensive and the ministers in charge demand that these plants are closed down before the end of their life. Even though the upfront costs have already been paid and the electricity they make are far cheaper than renewable generation if you don't force these crazy disadvantages on them. Mark Nelson talks about theses problems in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isgu-VrD0oM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isgu-VrD0oM

Coal is cheaper than crating solar panels and storage of electricity for them. Wind has other issues. There is no silver bullet here.

by krzyk 4y ago

Coal is cheaper than crating solar panels and storage of electricity for them. Wind has other issues. There is no silver bullet here.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

Coal is not cheaper for them. And hasnt been for well over a decade. https://www.csiro.au/-/media/News-releases/2022/GenCost-2022/GenCost2021-22Final_20220708.pdf https://www.csiro.au/-/media/News-releases/2022/GenCost-2022... They just had a government that wanted to funnel money to their backers in coal industry.

thrown_22 4y ago
So how much can I buy solar power for at midnight? Because coal is the same price at noon and now. That solar is cheaper at noon doesn't mean much. It's a bit like saying that coal is free underground.
- DFHippie 4y ago
  Those are different goalposts.
  - thrown_22 4y ago
    You're right. We can just turn off society between sunset and sunrise. Who needs things like refrigeration and life support on all the time anyway?
    - DFHippie 4y ago
      Let me translate my post: You changed the topic.
      - thrown_22 4y ago
        Let me explain my point: power is not energy and energy is not power. Renewable power is cheap in the same way someone whose head is dipped in liquid nitrogen and whose feet are in molten lead in over all pretty comfortable.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  The chart Figure 2-1 Comparison of current cost estimates with previous work also has wind power, which is also cheaper than coal, and has been for longer than solar has. Plus, Australia has hydro, which can be varied to fill the gaps. > Greater confidence in role of wind and solar PV: GenCost previously included a Diverse technology scenario which explored the case where deployment of variable renewables was more limited and other technologies played a larger role. Stakeholder feedback received during AEMO’s 2020-21 Australian scenario development process found that it was unlikely that alternative technologies will be able to compete in a significant way with renewables. This reflects relatively uncompetitive gas prices, a lack of confidence in the future cost competitiveness of CCS technologies and abundant low-cost renewable resources. Their 2030 forcasts also include costs for grid integration for different percentages of variable renewable.
- js8 4y ago
  > So how much can I buy solar power for at midnight? That's a bit like saying that there is no point in growing crops in Europe, because of the winter.
  - thrown_22 4y ago
    We can store grain for a year. How long can we store electricity for 15 minutes in most grids with a dollars for every five minutes further.
    - js8 4y ago
      It's simply not true we cannot store energy. We can produce hydrogen, methane, methanol, ethanol, biomass, steel, aluminum, cement, sillicon.. These are all energy intense processes that can help store energy. In fact, when it comes to food production (which is really just a form of energy), there are 3 major strategies how we deal with winter: storage (e.g. granary), shifting production (e.g. eating a pig you raised during the year), and trade (e.g. buying oranges from a tropical country). We can apply all these to electricity as well.
      - thrown_22 4y ago
        >It's simply not true we cannot store energy. Which grid can store enough energy to run for a week if all renewables are offline? Hint: there aren't any.
        Gibbon1 4y ago
        Show me a week in the last two years when California's renewables didn't produce any power https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html
        js8 4y ago
        This is partly because massive energy storage (on the order of weeks) isn't really needed until you hit around 75% intermittent renewables (wind and solar), which is not yet the case anywhere in the world. But the technology does exist, and it's gonna be deployed eventually.
- Schroedingersat 4y ago
  About $70/MWh and falling. https://helioscsp.com/the-cost-of-concentrated-solar-power-fell-by-47-between-2010-and-2019/ https://helioscsp.com/the-cost-of-concentrated-solar-power-f...
Aunche 4y ago
Solar has a much higher upfront cost than coal, so it's much easier to finance a coal plant than solar one. That said, this is a better excuse for poorer, developing countries than Australia.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  Yes, the WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) explains why it made financial sense to roll out solar PV in northern European countries before many sunnier areas. But as you say, Australia has no such excuse, having both the geography and the cost of capital to be a world leader in this, way beyond what they are now, which is okay but could have been much, much better. Also points to an easy way to provide assistance to any country that is trapped into this financial dead-end.

FBISurveillance 4y ago

There is, nuclear fission now _and_ invest into nuclear fusion. Best time to invest heavily in fusion was 20 years ago, second best time is now.

evilos 4y ago
IMO fission is already plenty for our current/near-term energy needs. We should definitely continue the pace on fusion but it's not strictly necessary. We should prioritize deploying proven technology ASAP.
pencilguin 4y ago
There will be no civil fusion power, as it would cost >10x as much as fission, and fission is not now competitive, and gets less so with each passing day. Each dollar diverted to fusion or fission from build-out of wind and solar brings climate catastrophe nearer.

evilos 4y ago

France decarbonized (up to 90% ish) their electricity generation in the span of 10 years, back in 1985. Unfortunately they've been sabotaging their nuclear power plants for years now, in favor of renewable energy.

AirStreamer27 4y ago
Genius decision making well done France
sveme 4y ago
Sabotaging? In what way is a drop in river water levels during a summer drought and maintenance issues a kind of sabotage?
- PaywallBuster 4y ago
  some of the recent issues were due to lack of maintenance or delayed maintenance during covid
- evilos 4y ago
  Essentially these plants are forced to be unprofitable via energy laws. For example, the nuclear plants are forced to sell their energy to energy traders at unprofitable low rates but those traders are never required to buy the energy and if the price of energy drops below this rate (AFTER it was bought) then the traders can just "return" the energy and the operators have to eat it. This happened during covid when energy prices collapsed due to lack of demand. These middlemen profit off of cheap nuclear energy instead of rate payers. In addition, the nuclear plants must pay a 23 euro per MWh tax that subsidizes the operation of renewable energy. Since the plants are forced to sell their energy below cost and subsidize renewable generation, they are not profitable and aren't given the proper funds to maintain/improve these plants. So then these plants look bad/expensive and the ministers in charge demand that these plants are closed down before the end of their life. Even though the upfront costs have already been paid and the electricity they make are far cheaper than renewable generation if you don't force these crazy disadvantages on them. Mark Nelson talks about theses problems in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isgu-VrD0oM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isgu-VrD0oM