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Is it that big of a deal? Apparently it represents only 10-15% of the ads for a year, so just a bit more than a month. Not only that but the fact that it isn'

Is it that big of a deal? Apparently it represents only 10-15% of the ads for a year, so just a bit more than a month. Not only that but the fact that it isn't pre-sold due to uncertainty does not mean that it won't be sold later, during the year, when (if) advertisers see that Musk's Twitter isn't that awful after all. I also imagine that the budget of advertisers that doesn't go to Twitter doesn't necessarily or fully go to other platforms. Advertisers that wanted to reach Twitter users in 2022 most likely still want to reach Twitter users in 2023, so I'm not convinced that they won't end up giving that money to Twitter anyway during the year. I wouldn't invest a single dollar in Twitter at the moment (we can't anymore anyway), but this honestly doesn't seem to me like something apocalyptic for them.

noahtallen 4y ago
I think part of why it feels like a big deal is because Elon is making it a big deal. (E.g. he has been tweeting and making a big deal about advertisers pulling out)
pvg 4y ago
It's 15% to 20% of revenue that you get to lock up in advance. It's a big deal.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- iLoveOncall 4y ago
  Hum, no, it's 10-15%. And it doesn't mean that it's lost if you don't lock it up as I've said. On top of that, Ads aren't 100% of Twitter's revenue, it's 89%. And that's without the new blue checkmark.
  - pvg 4y ago
    You can check the business news and market reactions when a company misses its revenue targets and external estimates by far smaller amounts than that for a better sense of what constitutes a big deal.
    - dan-robertson 4y ago
      I think it’s usually a much bigger deal for growing tech companies because their stock price is basically a guess about their future growth and so getting lower growth than expected implies a big change to future size/revenue of the company and therefore the stock price. I think the effect is much smaller for established companies that aren’t expecting big changes or growth rates.
      - kadoban 4y ago
        > I think the effect is much smaller for established companies that aren’t expecting big changes or growth rates. Yeah, no big changes happening at Twitter currently. Everything stable and normal.
        dan-robertson 4y ago
        I think logic of the comment I replied to above was incorrect. The reason that growth numbers have a big effect on stock prices is that they cause big changes to the “company in N years time” posterior distribution. However the comment was suggesting that the numbers are important in the short term and one can tell by analogy to stock markets. But the markets aren’t looking at such an immediate short term so the analogy breaks. One can decide that Twitter is in a good or bad state but I think one should want a strong foundation rather than relying on faulty analogies.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
x0x0 4y ago
> Is it that big of a deal? Yeah. Companies typically come into the year with budget allocations. Some percent of that is going to upfronts / presold, for which you get a discount. Twitter has a not-particularly compelling product. The dollars that Twitter lost almost surely got committed elsewhere.
mumblemumble 4y ago
> Apparently it represents only 10-15% of the ads for a year It doesn't just represent that. It also gives an indication of how advertisers more generally are thinking about where they want to run their ads in the coming year. Which might make it a rather good crystal ball for guessing what will happen with the other 85% of the year's ad revenue.

noahtallen 4y ago

I think part of why it feels like a big deal is because Elon is making it a big deal. (E.g. he has been tweeting and making a big deal about advertisers pulling out)

pvg 4y ago

It's 15% to 20% of revenue that you get to lock up in advance. It's a big deal.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
iLoveOncall 4y ago
Hum, no, it's 10-15%. And it doesn't mean that it's lost if you don't lock it up as I've said. On top of that, Ads aren't 100% of Twitter's revenue, it's 89%. And that's without the new blue checkmark.
- pvg 4y ago
  You can check the business news and market reactions when a company misses its revenue targets and external estimates by far smaller amounts than that for a better sense of what constitutes a big deal.
  - dan-robertson 4y ago
    I think it’s usually a much bigger deal for growing tech companies because their stock price is basically a guess about their future growth and so getting lower growth than expected implies a big change to future size/revenue of the company and therefore the stock price. I think the effect is much smaller for established companies that aren’t expecting big changes or growth rates.
    - kadoban 4y ago
      > I think the effect is much smaller for established companies that aren’t expecting big changes or growth rates. Yeah, no big changes happening at Twitter currently. Everything stable and normal.
      - dan-robertson 4y ago
        I think logic of the comment I replied to above was incorrect. The reason that growth numbers have a big effect on stock prices is that they cause big changes to the “company in N years time” posterior distribution. However the comment was suggesting that the numbers are important in the short term and one can tell by analogy to stock markets. But the markets aren’t looking at such an immediate short term so the analogy breaks. One can decide that Twitter is in a good or bad state but I think one should want a strong foundation rather than relying on faulty analogies.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]

x0x0 4y ago

> Is it that big of a deal? Yeah. Companies typically come into the year with budget allocations. Some percent of that is going to upfronts / presold, for which you get a discount. Twitter has a not-particularly compelling product. The dollars that Twitter lost almost surely got committed elsewhere.

mumblemumble 4y ago

> Apparently it represents only 10-15% of the ads for a year It doesn't just represent that. It also gives an indication of how advertisers more generally are thinking about where they want to run their ads in the coming year. Which might make it a rather good crystal ball for guessing what will happen with the other 85% of the year's ad revenue.