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I have some unpopular opinions about developers, and I'm likely to be downvoted on this site for them, but anyway: * Most developers have negative productivity

I have some unpopular opinions about developers, and I'm likely to be downvoted on this site for them, but anyway: * Most developers have negative productivity: they cost the company more money than the company derives from their work * Thanks to the bubble in the tech sector and lavish startup funding, a lot of developers are producing software that brings in no value * Thanks to the bubble in the tech sector, and great pay, a lot of developers have distorted ideas about the value they bring to their companies * Thanks to the bubble in the tech sector, a lot of developers overestimate their productivity and importance * Even if you work really hard, and have great skills, it does not mean you are producing something valuable and demanded by the market * If your company makes more money from your work than it pays you, your job is likely safe * If the company does not make money from your work, you should be thinking about plan B * Sometimes it is very difficult to estimate the impact of your individual work on company performance. Your job is not safe, and you should be thinking about plan B even if you are doing something really important. In conclusion: always be thinking about the real $$$ value your employer derives from your work. If you are paid a lot only because there is a shortage of developers, you might be in a bubble, which can pop.

benjaminwootton 4y ago
A lot of these points would be right if it wasn’t for the fact that software is so damn valuable. In investment banking for instance you are lucky to get 10 lines of code into production per week, but those lines of code can soon add up to replace a trader making $1 million a year or supporting $X million in electronic trading commissions. In Silicon Valley the salaries are breathtaking, but how many $billion and soon $trillion companies are being minted as a result of their efforts? I think that’s the dynamic going on. Many developers are average and overpaid, but they are a scarce resource and look at what they can create in the right circumstances.
- Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
  Some software brings in a lot of value, that's true, as evidenced by all the wealthy tech companies out there. But I think I wouldn't be too far off if I will estimate that only about 0.1% of developers create software that results in seven (or more) figure economic gains, 9,9% have moderate productivity that pays back their salary with some surplus and they other 90% of developers have actually negative productivity, and are only paid well thanks to the success of the first 0.1%
  - randomdata 4y ago
    I expect similar numbers are found throughout the entire economy. Most businesses fail. The trouble is that we don't have a good sense for who the winners will be until after the costs are sunk, and since software has the one of the highest potential upsides we're willing to sink more into trying.
imtringued 4y ago
Let's say you have software that sells for $80 a month, you only have to sell 200 subscriptions to pay a $200k salary. Let's deduct some expenses and say $130k. The question is, can a developer with 2000 hours of time to spend working create a feature or improve the existing software to convert an additional 200 customers? That is 10 hours per customer. The software developer could interview every single customer for 5 hours and gather and analyze the requirements and still have a thousand hours left to actually do his work. If anything, the moment there is a robotics revolution the value of software development will go up even further. There will be plenty of demand to spend on developing a harvesting program for a specific crop for example.
- Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
  How much developer time do you need to invest to create software that someone will be willing to buy for $80/month? What are the chances that nobody will buy it for whatever reason (wrong idea, bad marketing, bad quality, bad design, better competing product beat you to market, ...) ?

benjaminwootton 4y ago

A lot of these points would be right if it wasn’t for the fact that software is so damn valuable. In investment banking for instance you are lucky to get 10 lines of code into production per week, but those lines of code can soon add up to replace a trader making $1 million a year or supporting $X million in electronic trading commissions. In Silicon Valley the salaries are breathtaking, but how many $billion and soon $trillion companies are being minted as a result of their efforts? I think that’s the dynamic going on. Many developers are average and overpaid, but they are a scarce resource and look at what they can create in the right circumstances.

Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
Some software brings in a lot of value, that's true, as evidenced by all the wealthy tech companies out there. But I think I wouldn't be too far off if I will estimate that only about 0.1% of developers create software that results in seven (or more) figure economic gains, 9,9% have moderate productivity that pays back their salary with some surplus and they other 90% of developers have actually negative productivity, and are only paid well thanks to the success of the first 0.1%
- randomdata 4y ago
  I expect similar numbers are found throughout the entire economy. Most businesses fail. The trouble is that we don't have a good sense for who the winners will be until after the costs are sunk, and since software has the one of the highest potential upsides we're willing to sink more into trying.

imtringued 4y ago

Let's say you have software that sells for $80 a month, you only have to sell 200 subscriptions to pay a $200k salary. Let's deduct some expenses and say $130k. The question is, can a developer with 2000 hours of time to spend working create a feature or improve the existing software to convert an additional 200 customers? That is 10 hours per customer. The software developer could interview every single customer for 5 hours and gather and analyze the requirements and still have a thousand hours left to actually do his work. If anything, the moment there is a robotics revolution the value of software development will go up even further. There will be plenty of demand to spend on developing a harvesting program for a specific crop for example.

Andrew_nenakhov 4y ago
How much developer time do you need to invest to create software that someone will be willing to buy for $80/month? What are the chances that nobody will buy it for whatever reason (wrong idea, bad marketing, bad quality, bad design, better competing product beat you to market, ...) ?